Tsunami's Account Talk

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I'm almost down to page 3 so better post something......

Latest from Martin Armstrong, now down to writing with pen and paper...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Armstrong-From-the-Hole-3910-1-from-the-Hole.pdf

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Writing-From-the-Hole-Phase-II-of-This-Debt-Crisis-31310.pdf

Arch Crawford is still predicting doom this summer....

http://podcast.streetiq.com/streetiq/?GUID=12322557&Page=MediaViewer&ChannelID=3130

I'm looking for 1228-1242 by 5/20/2010, but considering how bad I'm doing in my NCAA bracket, don't listen to me. :nuts:
 
WorkFE said:
Don't feel bad Tsunami, theres a guy in our office who picked 0 correct after day 1.
Click to expand...

Now that takes talent! I wish I'd stayed with my original picks. At the last minute I watched some online videos on Yahoo where "experts" were making their predictions, and as a result I switched 5 picks. I ended up getting ALL FIVE of those wrong! I would have had 25 right but instead only got 20. Just shows that sports is a lot like the markets, and the "experts' don't have a clue any more than we do.

Go Lobos!
 
Even Captain Hook is turning bullish:

"my resolve regarding equities/commodities/precious metals moving higher due to liquidity escaping the bond markets(s) has grown stronger. In fact, in this regard we could be on the very cusp of an extreme inflation in equities as money flees bonds, which is a page not many are on yet, or are afraid to speak of with any degree of certainty"
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2010/0322.html

Further consolidation is likely here, maybe down to the low 1140's, but I'm staying long and strong for now. I got an early warning signal of a top last week though. After 6 months of nagging my wife she finally let me move her TSP out of G and into C/S. When I start seeing more of that by people that aren't being nagged, it's time to bail out. :cheesy:
 
This is the most hated bull market in history and with $500 billion in those bond funds this ride could last for years. So I say let the equity bubble grow and grow. With all the available liquidity in the marketplace and nowhere for money to make money to get a real return except in stocks. My boat is loaded.
 
I like the chart below posted in this link http://safehaven.com/article-16210.htm by Birchtree.

16210_c.jpg


Look at what the market did in November when it hit that upper trend line. There are still a lot of people looking for the 10% drop to get rich shorting, but if we get a repeat of that pattern from here it should chop it's way higher and higher up that trendline, frustrating the shorts over and over. And looking closer, in the November to January timeframe it chopped higher for about 2 months, and about 3 to 4% higher.....hmmm, two months from now is right about May 20th, and 3-4% higher is right about 1228, the 61.8% retracement target. Then comes a drop down to that lower line into June, then the final rally into August.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

My roadmap for as long as it lasts: http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/adt13-with-null-echo-pdf-1.pdf
 
Referring back to my post #107 and Brian Pretti's article, the 50 day simple moving average is now at 1118.1 and rising only very slowly, and 5% above that is 1174. So yesterday's 1180 was a stretch too far for the computer's comfort and that's probably why there was a sharp reversal lower. Until we're further beyond the Jan/Feb correction to where those lower numbers aren't part of the 50dma equation, I think that's further evidence that we should just chop sideways to slightly higher for the next few weeks. Earnings season will probably be characterized as very good overall, so with the media focussed on that there won't be any reason for a big drop unless some Black Swan comes along. Then once the 50dma turns up steeper in mid/late April, we can get a stronger push up like the one from mid-December to mid-January, right up to around 5/20. I'm guessing Tom's suggestion today that we may only see drops down to the 20dma (followed by bounces back up to about 5% above the 50dma) and not much worse is correct. So I don't think a surge to 1200 is imminent, but who knows. A drop to around 1150 is quite possible though...although here comes another Monday so maybe it has to wait a couple days. I'm looking forward to finally going into a month being in the market, so I'll be able to do the old out then back in timing trick, and I plan to look for one of those days when the S&P is stretched to 5% over the 50dma to do it, then curse the TSP Board for the last 4 hours of the day with my fingers crossed hoping it doesn't collapse into the close.

We'll see. Probably a good time to get out and do some yardwork like Birchtree for a few weeks.
 
Ah ha, no wonder I'm getting so many hits on my thread, it's tsunami awareness week: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=19&sid=1920071 :D

These grumblings about federal worker pay cuts won't go away: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=15&sid=1917360

Obamacare for feds info: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=22&sid=1918412

So...I noticed the S&P peaked at 1174 today, right on that 5% above the 50dma mark...also notice a potential head and shoulders pattern over the last few days, with the head at 1180, the neckline at 1165...that puts the target if it comes to fruition at 1150ish. Bingo. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Anybody who got out today may be very upset by the close Monday, but with some luck the fall could drag out a couple more days.
 
Two scary looking potential head and shoulder patterns....

30 year bonds, about two-thirds down this page...
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2010/0326.html

Target for the Dow would be below 1000....many index's worldwide sport this pattern and point to zero...

viewGsdEmail.php_files_1269689836-Dow28-10.gif


Eric Sprott interview:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/27_Eric_Sprott.html

The clock is ticking, less than 5 months now to the T-theory predicted late August peak. If that happens it could mirror the 1929 peak:
WSJchart.jpg


Lots of fun for chart nerds here: http://www.chartsrus.com/

A very busy day for headline writers....

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/1NYTGoldEmbargo4633.gif
 
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century.html

"This is a very simple chart. It takes the change in GDP and divides it by the change in Debt. What it shows is how much productivity is gained by infusing $1 of debt into our debt backed money system.

Back in the early 1960s a dollar of new debt added almost a dollar to the nation’s output of goods and services. As more debt enters the system the productivity gained by new debt diminishes. This produced a path that was following a diminishing line targeting ZERO in the year 2015. This meant that we could expect that each new dollar of debt added in the year 2015 would add NOTHING to our productivity.

Then a funny thing happened along the way. Macroeconomic DEBT SATURATION occurred causing a phase transition with our debt relationship. This is because total income can no longer support total debt. In the third quarter of 2009 each dollar of debt added produced NEGATIVE 15 cents of productivity, and at the end of 2009, each dollar of new debt now SUBTRACTS 45 cents from GDP!"

viewCddEmail.php_files_1269896402-image1.gif
 
Tsunami said:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century.html

"This is a very simple chart. It takes the change in GDP and divides it by the change in Debt. What it shows is how much productivity is gained by infusing $1 of debt into our debt backed money system.

Back in the early 1960s a dollar of new debt added almost a dollar to the nation’s output of goods and services. As more debt enters the system the productivity gained by new debt diminishes. This produced a path that was following a diminishing line targeting ZERO in the year 2015. This meant that we could expect that each new dollar of debt added in the year 2015 would add NOTHING to our productivity.

Then a funny thing happened along the way. Macroeconomic DEBT SATURATION occurred causing a phase transition with our debt relationship. This is because total income can no longer support total debt. In the third quarter of 2009 each dollar of debt added produced NEGATIVE 15 cents of productivity, and at the end of 2009, each dollar of new debt now SUBTRACTS 45 cents from GDP!"

viewCddEmail.php_files_1269896402-image1.gif
Click to expand...

At some point even the gubmint will need to show some return on their investment.

Not a good time to be in debt...
 
From Casey Research's daily email....haven't had time to listen yet but definitely will. This concerns the long rumored gold/silver market manipulation:

"In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Eric King of King World News sent me the interview headlined above... and it was a shocker to say the least! I called Eric on the telephone as soon as I got up in the morning... and he told me that shortly after he posted the interview, his website had been hacked and about the last third of the interview had been deliberately erased from one of ISP's servers. It was the part where Andrew Maguire and GATA's Adrian Douglas started talking about things like "fraud", "treason" and "financial terrorism". As you are aware, dear reader, Maguire and his wife were the victims of a hit-and-run on Friday... the day after his testimony was read to the CFTC hearing in Washington on Thursday. And as I said yesterday in my comments about his hit-and-run accident... it comes right out of a James Bond thriller... police chase, complete with helicopters. Britain's finest got their man... but will he talk!

This reminds me of what happened to GATA chairman Bill Murphy a couple of years after the organization was founded... and I remember the incidents well. Within the space of six weeks, Bill got beaten up, his website hacked, and his car stolen. His car turned up the day after his insurance company paid up... no damage to the car, money in the console was still there, and his cashmere sweater was still in the back seat. This has all the makings of a movie script somewhere down the road.

Anyway, with my preamble out of the way, here's Chris Powell's preamble to the GATA release on this explosive interview with Andrew Maguire and GATA board member Adrian Douglas... "London metals trader and CFTC whistleblower Andrew Maguire was interviewed with GATA board member Adrian Douglas for 40 minutes Tuesday by Eric King of King World News. Maguire explained how he came to complain to the CFTC about silver market manipulation by JPMorgan Chase traders in London... and then to Douglas when the CFTC failed to call him to testify at its hearing last week on futures trading in the metals market.""

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwo...10/3/30_Andrew_Maguire_&_Adrian_Douglass.html

I hope TSPTalk isn't shut down for me posting that. :worried:
 
Peak oil, another 2 by 4 on the camel's back.... this is a good summary of the current situation:

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petrobras-ceo-peak-oil-production-is-now205/

The best recent estimates say that there were originally about 2.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, and in 2008 we reached the point where half of that had been extracted. The current ~80 million barrels a day burn rate (enough barrels to wrap around the earth almost two times if you laid them end to end, every day!) won't be sustainable for much longer. Demand in China and India is increasing exponentially. On long term charts you can now see the price of oil is starting to increase exponentially. As soon as 2012 we could see government moves to ensure the military gets the oil it needs first, and consumers get what's left. If (is there really any doubt?) we get another recession over the next few years that will slow down demand a bit, but best case around 2014 the price of gas is going skyhigh IMHO.

Looking on the bright side, more of us might get to work from home, and I hear Prius's are selling at a discount right now. :laugh:

Looking ahead a few years, when the markets hit the next bottom, energy-related investments will present great opportunities....lithium miners to supply those electric vehicles...solar will stay hot...railroads...geothermal....uranium miners to supply the renewed nuclear power industry, so we can juice up those electric vehicles....
 
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