Tsunami's Account Talk

[Valkyrie]

Peak oil, another 2 by 4 on the camel's back.... this is a good summary of the current situation:

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petrobras-ceo-peak-oil-production-is-now205/

The best recent estimates say that there were originally about 2.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, and in 2008 we reached the point where half of that had been extracted. The current ~80 million barrels a day burn rate (enough barrels to wrap around the earth almost two times if you laid them end to end, every day!) won't be sustainable for much longer. Demand in China and India is increasing exponentially. On long term charts you can now see the price of oil is starting to increase exponentially. As soon as 2012 we could see government moves to ensure the military gets the oil it needs first, and consumers get what's left. If (is there really any doubt?) we get another recession over the next few years that will slow down demand a bit, but best case around 2014 the price of gas is going skyhigh IMHO.

Looking on the bright side, more of us might get to work from home, and I hear Prius's are selling at a discount right now. :laugh:

Looking ahead a few years, when the markets hit the next bottom, energy-related investments will present great opportunities....lithium miners to supply those electric vehicles...solar will stay hot...railroads...geothermal....uranium miners to supply the renewed nuclear power industry, so we can juice up those electric vehicles....

FYI
peak oil is a political lie

oil is re-newable
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645
or just do a google search

http://www.lawfulpath.com/ref/greening.shtml

I enjoy your market insight and look forward to it

 

[Tsunami]

FYI
peak oil is a political lie...oil is re-newable

Wow, I hope you're not serious. Yes, oil magically appears deep in the earth and will never run out, and the sun shines 24-7 where I live.

Even the politically pressured organizations like the International Energy Agency are now admitting demand will outstrip supply sooner than most expect, by around 2014 per two separate reports that just came out. The coming economic chaos may delay it further if demand stays down, but it's coming eventually and the U.S in particular is not ready.

This documentary is a little old, but is a good intro to the problem:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-665674869982904386#

The guys at Casey Research, one of the smartest groups of thinkers around on this subject, just last week warned that peak oil is an even bigger problem than the impending debt crisis, the world's 6 billion population simply can't be sustained without alternatives to oil being developed soon. Hopefully market forces will minimize the transition, whether it's to electric cars, natural gas, liquid ammonia, or something else...it's not going to be oil powering transporation forever though. We need to save what's left for manufacturing, air and sea travel, and military uses, but the developing countries like China and India will gobble it up first.

 

[FAB1]

He was quoted as stating that "competent physicists, chemists, chemical engineers and men knowledgeable of thermodynamics have known that natural petroleum
does not evolve from biological materials since the last quarter of the 19th century

Follow the money, by keeping us in the dark as to how much Oil there really is the bustards can keep continually raising the price on this "dwindling resource"

I swear is there NOTHING people wont do to decieve and line their greedy pockets???

 

[Tsunami]

I'd like to drop the peak oil thing, people just won't get it until it's in such short supply that there's rationing in order to protect supplies for the military, since China has locked up imports in contracts from the dwindling remaining supplies. I think that's coming in 5 years or so, along with $6 gas or higher.

This Goldman Sachs story is huge. Congrats to the SEC for having the nerve to stand up to the almighty gods of Wall Street. Now we finally have a trigger for a mild decline that might last more than a few hours.

 

[Valkyrie]

I'd like to drop the peak oil thing, people just won't get it until it's in such short supply that there's rationing in order to protect supplies for the military, since China has locked up imports in contracts from the dwindling remaining supplies. I think that's coming in 5 years or so, along with $6 gas or higher.

This Goldman Sachs story is huge. Congrats to the SEC for having the nerve to stand up to the almighty gods of Wall Street. Now we finally have a trigger for a mild decline that might last more than a few hours.

u do know that GS will profit hugely from carbon credits. they are behind it and have been pushing for it for yrs.

and if u go to the sites about the oil fields are renewing themselves, u wouldn't ask if I was serious.

been following casey and mayberry for yrs. Can't remember which one stated that there will always be enough oil, just that politics will dictate who and for how much get it.

 

[Bullitt]

Amazing that the reason the market is down today because of GS, allegedly. No mention at all that there have been at least 6 distribution days in most major indexes in the past 3 weeks and the dangerous divergences among the VIX, participation index, McClellan Osc and GOOG still abound. Don't get me wrong- I am very delighted to see someone splash cold water on GS.

 

[Tsunami]

Wow, time to sell in Vancouver B.C.
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/


Cat vs. iPad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mu4afkGoUfE&feature=popt17us00


Swenlin (looks like he's targeting the 1150 area for this decline)
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpotMenu.html

 

[fedgolfer]

Swenlin (looks like he's targeting the 1150 area for this decline)
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpotMenu.html

That seems like a logical and reasonable entry point... probably will coincide w the lower BB on the SPX chart and the 50 day MA.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p17064446248

 

[Tsunami]

Yep, 1150ish looks reasonable, but I'll probably jump back in and call it good enough if it gets to 1170-75 since the turn back up could be sharp. I still think we'll see an important top in May, in the 5/13 to 5/20 time frame, with index's rolling over on different dates to create divergence, the S&P likely in the 1228 to 1242 area..... then the August peak may or may not beat that, time will tell. I hope it does, would love to see 1300, but am not predicting it.

I see Martin Armstrong has been busy writing in "the hole". He doesn't see a deflationary collapse happening. One of the better letters:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/From-the-Hole-7.pdf

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

Sitting around today waiting for a DirecTV guy to show up. Finally dropping Comcast after years of "thinking" about it. It's the final step in the master plan since we already dropped our landline phone and got Ooma (Love it!) for free phone service, and switched from Comcast broadband to Qwest's 12 MBS dsl (no more outages!) for internet.

 

[Tsunami]

I know his Rolling Stone article has been mentioned on other threads. Here's Matt Taibbi discussing it. This link will automatically go to four additional very short videos...
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/674.html


Looks like good wine is going to get cheaper:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/03/08/BUGK1CCJJ9.DTL&feed=rss.wine


The next generation of big brother watching your speed:
http://swns.com/new-speed-camera-sp...torists-with-satellite-technology-191618.html


And last, but not least, Greece could soon be replaced in the media spotlight in this scenario:
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-43-is...-half-of-2010-Summer-2010-The-Bank_a4531.html

 

[Tsunami]

Forgot this one yesterday...a European Union Commissioner has declared that vacations are a fundamental human right and should be subsidized by the government.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogs...lysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-43-is...-half-of-2010-Summer-2010-The-Bank_a4531.html

 

[Tsunami]

75 millionaires in the TSP now: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=20&sid=1938336

I think the key word in their little 3-step road to riches is the word "right" in step 2. Being in the "right" investment at the right time is certainly key, the holy grail...it's the whole reason this web site exists...

I wish this would have discussed (daily) tracking errors in the F fund instead of the C fund http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=19&sid=1937743 $250 billion, hmmm, just fraction of what the treasury will have to come up with.

"There is a chance we could have a market castastrphe"... http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=22&sid=1938351

Off topic...if anyone out there has kids in the 22 to 25 age bracket, as of today Blue Cross Blue Shield told me that they're hearing the new law to include dependents on your insurance up to the 26th birthday will take affect on 1/1/11, so we'll be hearing about it during the coming open season when you will be able to add your kids back onto your insurance if they don't have their own.

 

[JimmyJoe]

OK. I might never be a millionaire but I plan to allocate in the TSP like one, now that the TSP and stock market have my attention. TSPtalk will help me. My plan is to make a little more than I take. It's gonna be a nice ride up.

 

[Boghie]

75 millionaires in the TSP now: http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=20&sid=1938336

Still not close to being one the of few, the proud, the millionaires.

But, it won't be too long before the number on the far left of my TSP Account Balance will have to tick up.

That is going to be a happy day

 

[Tsunami]

With the way the Treasury prints money, we all should be milloinaires soon....they need to print record amounts again next week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeRHlg6eqCxQ&pos=3

 

[anthony]

75 millionaires in the TSP now.

You know, they talk about this as if it's a good thing when they should be kicking themselves in the shins over it.

Nevermind all the math it would take to figure things out with matching contributions and all that, but if you just take a $16,500/year account contribution between your own money and the matching money, and then apply the S&P500's 9% average annual return compounded, you're a millionaire in 20 years. (I already know someone's going to point out the crash, but just work with me here.)

The reality is that starting everyone off in G Fund and then providing minimal continuing education about such basic principles as DCA (especially during crashes), or about the ability to absorb risk at younger ages, all leads to the end result of only 75 millionaires out of however many millions of people have worked for the government since 1988. And I'm not even talking about IFT limit effects.

Some financial planners will tell you that you need to retire with about $2M-$3M in the bank to avoid major changes in standard of living after retirement. 75 TSP millionaires who mostly got there via rollovers is downright pitiful.

Nice job PR team. You can dress up a terd to look like ice cream but I'm still not going to lick it.

Okay, rant complete ... good luck everyone.

 

[JimmyJoe]

You're absolutely right,
However it is not the typical gov't worker's fault. The stock market and the B and H system is so foreign to most of them (excluding the TSP talkers). I bet that the 75 millionaires came from families that taught them the techniques that we use on this forum. You can bet the next wave of gov't workers will have the savy so that millionaires could be the norm, if the TSP allocation program remains as it is.

One of the best things that happened to me is when the TSP officials reduced the number of trades to 2 or 3 per month. With unlimited trades I was constantly stepping on my own toes (I think a few more trades would be nice though). The other is to join this forum and use the tools and trackers on TSPtalk. It's turned my old stale view of stocks and percentages into challenges, improving my money matters, and writing and reading about topics that are insightful and profitable.

Enjoy the present. It's a present.

 

[Tsunami]

I hate to admit it myself, but I'm probably also in the camp where less trading would be better. I just made my 9th and 10th IFTs of the year this past week and where did it get me?....I just did the math, if I'd stayed where I was I would have gained 0.26% from 4/14 to today's close, as it turned out I gained 0.21%. All of the damage was done in those final four hours today. As of 15 minutes before the IFT deadline the S&P was at 1193 and I thought had a good shot at closing at 1190 or a bit lower, giving me my goal of getting back in about 2% lower....oops, nope, straight up for four hours into the close it went....the TSP Board's 4 hour deadline bit me again and erased the potential smooth move. Oh well, it's fun trying.

I see things might hit the fan in Greece on 5/19. That would fit perfectly with the T-Theory predicted top of about 5/20.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/shedlock/2010/0422.html

http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

 

[Boghie]

Nice point Anthony...

I really didn't start investing till the Greatest President of All Time (Clinton?) jacked my taxes way up. I was literally promoted two GS grades at exactly the same pay period Slick Willie slipped into my pocket. So, there I was. Funding my 'wet down' party with the expected salary increase but actually getting paid $50 less. I was renting a room in an apartment and driving an older Ford Probe. Wealth simply fell out of my pockets every time I ate my burritos or spaghetti.:nuts:

End result, I started poking around TSP to avoid taxes and the Alpo Meal Deal Retirement Program. Which means I wasted five years of investing by not managing my TSP.

You would have thought someone would have shown me the ropes.

And, you guys here saved my buttocks from 2007 through 2009.

Finally, I - like some of you - are still suffering trader withdraws. Geez, 28 trades in 2009? Seven trades already this year?

For me, the last trade seems to have added a bit too much risk for the gain of 0.17%. Yuk...

 

[grandma]

JTH's self-imposed rule of no trades after the morning bell (or something close to that) is one I am trying to abide by - I have avoided, for the most part, using my two trades in the first few days of the month.
My history before the limitation would read much different if I had paid attention to just that one rule.....
He says it isn't written in stone, but it keeps the emotions out
of his trades.