Tsunami's Account Talk

Looks to me like wave 4 has bottomed, up we go in wave 5 to that important May peak later this month. Today could finish green and them some.

No worries....hmmm, where's that Alfred E. Newman jpeg....

;)
 
Wow. Well, I guess we know what the lead story on the evening news will be tonight.

:sick:

Actually, I'd rather see it dump all at once like this than dribble down for days/weeks. "The boys" will turn it around at some point. 1100 should be good support....maybe...
 
Emergency Eurozone meeting tomorrow to try to deal with the panic. The French market is down over 20%, thus the headhunting comments by the French President....

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/french-president-nicolas-sarkozy-vows.html

Lot's of people play "if only" in their minds this weekend...let's see, on 4/14 I was sitting at +11.7% and went to 50% F/50% G...."if only" I'd stayed, I'd be sitting at #4 on the board now....

I think the markets need a wave 5 drop early this week, then there should be a good rally, but catching that falling knife is always a gamble.
 
The French market is down over 20%, thus the headhunting comments by the French President....

Meanwhile the believers once again think that "The Dow" can do it without the rest of the world. Isn't a 20% drop a bear market?
 
1273607741-image5.png


Is Venezuala on the brink of collapse?...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100508/ap_on_bi_ge/lt_venezuela_inflation

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37023580

1273607317-CreditDefaultRiskFINAL.jpg


 
They will just as the rug is about to be pulled out. :laugh:

Any thoughts or opinions on gold Tsunami?

I don't think anything will be immune to the coming asset deflationary crash, including gold and silver. Oil will tank again since the peak oil issues are still a few years away and not a factor yet. Real estate will get hit again, in particular in the still way overpriced areas; the average home should be around 3 times the average gross income in most areas, not 10 or 15 times like some coastal areas. About gold....after last week's panic in stocks, and looking at this morning's futures (gold up $19 to yet another record high, while stock's are dropping hard), gold's hit over the next few years may be very light. I used to think that, for example, if stocks drop 70% in the next two to six years, then gold might drop 35-40% or so. But the latest evidence says gold might only endure a brief drop then recover, or even no significant drop at all. I was planning to sell what little gold/silver I have in July/August, but now I'm thinking I should just hang on and wish I had more. Converting the only real money to any piece of paper could be a mistake.

When is this crash coming? Soon. Harry Dent's timing is now aligned with every other guru I pay attention too, although his latest prediction is even worse than I could have imagined coming so soon. He's talking about a tsunami that will dwarf any seen before. I didn't think the worst would hit until 2011, but last week we saw how suddenly the herds will hit the panic button when the debt crisis hits the U.K. and U.S.

I'm looking for a drop to 1110ish to get back in for the final rally into summer, but soon it will be time to get the heck out of Dodge. Here's 9 minutes that could save everyone a fortune if they don't ignore it. Preserving what you have will be key the next six years. He who loses the least, wins....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEsAjYXlLuI
 
Laundry's been around since the 70's and has seen it all, he's warning that a 1987 style crash is possible here. I don't think we'll see that, I don't see any new news coming out to terrify people, but I think I'll refrain from jumping in today even if it's aiming toward my low 1100's target to get back in.

"If the oscillator can not reach the zero line or the green cash build up line in todays chart, the overall appearance of all my indicators is like that preceding the 1987 (so-called) "Crash" which was actually a severe "panic" produced by speculation using borrowed money or leverage.

If you are new to the investment world and "missed" the 1987 panic you should know that you must avoid being caught up in it because the after effect is that investors behavior will be changed for the rest of their lives. It can be a truly a mind altering experience even if you are out of harms way."

http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html
 
Tsunami,

Just started reading 'The Coming Depression'. He references 'Generations' by Strauss and Howe. The more recent 'The Fourth Turning' Strauss and Howe book is better - more fleshed out and better documented.

I tend to agree with Dent, but find his cycles within cycles and finding new cycles to be kinda explanatory after the fact. The 5000 year cycle is silly. As are the real short ones. He got a bit excited.

However, the generational – and seasonal – cycles still hold water. I’ve been waiting for winter. I think it came in 2008. And, we have just the wrong folks in power to see us through.

Oh well.
 
Tsunami,

Do you think you can play short term trading within the IFT limitations? Is it worth the risk? What is the value of a 5% gain when the dump could be 50%.

This feels just like the beginning of 2008.
 
I will continue to try to look for bounces within the IFT limits, that's just my nature rather than to completely crawl under a rock. But basically in the TSP we just have one shot per month to find one, so we have to pick the entries carefully. It's going to be riskier though going forward. I was reeeeeal tempted to jump in today, there's a potential ABC down finishing today, and I think we may be in a big triangle that will resolve to the upside in a couple weeks in the final wave C rally into July/August....but looking at the carnage in Europe decided not to make the move today. I'm more active in my trading account now, loaded up on some QQQQ $49 June puts yesterday and am really liking that right now....
 
hey- question do You know why the gck10.cmx is not refreshing anymore?

I never heard of that symbol, had to Google it to find out what it was... I just use Kitco.com for current Gold price, and have GLD on my Yahoo index quotes link that I use to track the TSP funds and other stuff I'm most interested in (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^dj...-Y.NYB+gld+slv+uso&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=)...and CNBC is now flashing the gold price every few seconds and talking about gold frequently. Gold is set for a top/consolidation soon with all this attention, but could go into a parabolic spike this summer to above $1300.
 
Back
Top