Tsunami's Account Talk

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Cash - especially the old Greenback - will be king.

Debt payments for three year old dinners and wine tastings and movie goings will be nasty. Stay out of debt and we will come through this thing (worst case) very, very well.

You'll be styling in your very own greedy capitalist pig top hat.

Looking good
 
BT - I couldn't convince my daughters to follow dad in that route (both are avid readers and are persuing English degrees), but one has to follow their interests to be happiest...they'll be fine I'm sure. I graduated as a Chem E in the horrible 1982 oil crisis market, but lived to tell about it.

As for the markets, I still see hope for the bulls for one final rally but here's how it has to pan out I think....

The Elliott waver's all seem to have the same short term wave count today, with Friday's rally being a wave 4 and another waterfall selloff coming next week once wave 4 peters out. Here's Daneric's depiction of where we are: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S_hP3IOOEAI/AAAAAAAAFbI/pcQgBF-ubHk/s1600/spx1.png Where he could be wrong though is that the coming wave "(i)" low this week could be the bottom of wave C of an ABC down, then up we go in another rally into July/August with token new highs.

If the index's can hold at about 38.2% correction from the April peak (which would be at 1110 for the S&P and 9430 for the Dow), that would leave the drop as just an ABC correction from the April top, and could leave the markets with enough strength to mount that rally just like in 2007, allowing more distribution to the unfortunate bulls. That would jive with John Needham's latest and his 37.5% line at 1112.... http://www.thedanielcode.com/download_archive.php?file=22May2010_lttc.pdf

Another possibility is the waves continue to unfold deeper down per this chart http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S_hf68e2swI/AAAAAAAAFbQ/DYZFpDTB5hM/s1600/SPXDAILY.png
with a deeper low around 6/20 instead of in the next week or so, near the 50% retracement around 943, then the wave 2 rally comes all the way back at least 61.8%, and maybe to nearer a double top in August. Either way a big rally is likely coming, but trying to catch most of it will be tough.

If we get that big rally soon (which could be precipitated by some kind of government stimulus/move as soon as Memorial Day weekend), I'll be looking for a lot of divergences in July/August...some U.S. index's/sectors may reach new highs, but the NYAD line will not, China and other emerging markets will not, Terry Laundry's FAGIX:VUSTX bond ratio will not...gold will, oil will not, etc.

Just my 2 cents. Trying to maintain my neutral position of being neither an optimist or pessimist, just a realist, and reality is things are looking very dire for the next few years.
 
Well here we are. The markets have completed a real pretty A-B-C corrective decline in four weeks. Within a week or so we'll know if the most bearish of bears are correct, like this... http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S_w5HeMjBQI/AAAAAAAAFc8/hP49qW1slsA/s1600/spxdaily.png

...or if today's reversal will end up being labled as the beginning of a whole new rally that lasts into August (and anything beyond that means perhaps it continues into 2011, though I don't see that happening with the speed of deteriorating fundamentals). I can't find any charts to show that possibility to post since there are so few now that believe it could happen. So, if I had to bet, I think the currently contrarian view that a big rally back up to 1240 or so is brewing shouldn't be dismissed. The high level of fear right now is perfect to start a big charge into August. With the exception of my TSP which I'm shut out of until 6/1, I was closing out all shorts and turning to buying this morning...but my finger is near the panic button if needed. The 1105-25 area appears to be the coming battle zone.

Back to more important things, like Pacman.... http://www.google.com/pacman/
 
Tsunami, let me tell you where you are wrong. You included the word 'fundamentals'. Those don't matter anymore. The only thing that matters is the AD Line and Dow Theory because if everybody watches those then everything is happy and the evil bears shall face defeat. But what happens when those turn bearish? Then you get a flash crash deux, but don't worry about that either because Congress will grandstand and make somebody responsible; and it won't be overly complacent speculators either.

"Buy when there is blood on the streets!" they cry. Uhh, Okay. Blood in the streets during a bull market?

Look at it this way. Since the entire world has reached the 'Hope' phase of the trading psychology cycle, any bounce might lighten up those put premiums. Take a look at the risk put on by TSP'ers throwing up a hail mary on the I Fund. Who will everybody cry to this time when it unravels?
 
OK, forget the fundamentals for the moment....for the Elliott waver's out there...I found the missing wave 4! It was hiding in the overnight trading. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.M10.E A clear 5 waves up from 1040 finished at 1090 today when you include overnight trading, and now we've had 3 waves down and the futures have just sharply reversed back up to start the next 5 waves up. My bet is the market will like the Thursday unemployment and GDP numbers, will gap up tomorrow, and the S&P will reach the 200dma at 1104 by Friday. The question will be though once it's completed this evolving 5-3-5 pattern, is that just another ABC correction up, to be followed by another collapse?...or the beginning of a larger 5-3-5-3-5 leg up, which would be the start of a big rally into the summer? If the S&P blasts through the 200dma and resistance around 1110-15 I think we'll have the answer, but for now I won't pretend to know if that will happen since I don't.

1274873430-10_1.jpg

 
Looks like the bulls are using the shock and awe technique today to get this wave C or wave 3 rally going.

A lot of daytraders probably went to bed with short positions last night, dreaming about today's riches......not.

:)
 
Being in, I'm also bullish, but these successive intraday inverted H&S failed attempts are testing the adhesive on my sticky pants. At least this one is on the breakout side of the $tran.
 
Sticky pants is still a good idea. Yesterday started strong and aound 2 o'clock started loosing steam. Today looking good so far but the lunch bunch haven't shown their hand yet and we still need to get passed the 2 o'clock and 3:30 killing zones. :sick: Fingers crossed and extra glue forth coming.:nuts:
 
(I changed my avatar temporarily until my Cougs are eliminated from the NCAA baseball tourney)....just heard that 6 Big 12 teams may join the Pac-10, all for another buck or two I'm sure. Texas and Oklahoma in the Pac-16, don't know if I can stomach that....

Martin Armstrong thinks 17.2 months is an important cycle....the fall from October 2007 to March 2009 was 17.2 months.... http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The-Two-Phases-of-the-Great-Depression-5-27-2010.pdf hmmm, taking it further, a rally from March 2009 to mid-August 2010 would be 17.2 months, which happens to be the month many technicians are pointing to for "the" top. And 17.2 months four more times would come out to May 2016, when Bob Prechter (in his free April report) predicts the bear market will end. Time will tell how that works out, or not.


1275560947-2.jpg
 
Coach, I'm an aging Chem E ('82)... had one EE course in old Carpenter Hall but EE confused me so much I took my second EE course during the summer at the Richland campus where it would be easier.

Buckle up folks, per the bearish wedge pattern discussed by Ryan Puplava last night, it's just been broken to the downside. Below 1040ish triggers a head and shoulders pattern as well, and the target for that will be 875.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/rpuplava/2010/0603.html

"If I’m wrong and we fail to break above the 200 DMA, then buckle up because the chain lift (rally) over the past week and a half just reset this roller coaster for another decline."

Also notice that even with the dollar soaring today gold is doing it's job in perserving wealth.
 
Tsunami said:
I'm really getting tired of the parade of "experts" on the tube that say a "double-dip" recession is not in the cards, and a depression is impossible.

Here's some more evidence that it's coming later this year....
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/jain/2010/0607.html

The next rally could arrive by Wednesday if this pattern is right...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TA1nwQ6kH-I/AAAAAAAAFoU/ZABChcx5__g/s1600/spx60.png
Click to expand...

Let's hope so, my fingers are tapping the ripcord :notrust: ... capitulation is whispering.
 
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