Tsunami's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Robin Griffiths interview:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/6/26_Robin_Griffiths.html

The latest from Martin Armstrong.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Can-the-Euro-Survive-a-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis-6-14-10.pdf

The FTSE index joined the "death cross" club this week, with the 50dma dropping below the 200dma.

Good stuff from Terry Laundry today as usual. http://www.ttheory.com/ Gold and VUSTX are poised to bust up through ascending triangles, which would mean stocks are about to fall hard if they do. The Wednesday ISM index number could be a trigger, followed by poor unemployment news later in the week. Per Chris Puplava, we should see worsening ISM index numbers in the coming months: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2010/0623.html

Even with all that and much more weighing on the market, many gurus are expecting a rally from here and lasting as long as into early August. We'll see.
 
Tsunami said:
Even with all that and much more weighing on the market, many gurus are expecting a rally from here and lasting as long as into early August. We'll see.
Click to expand...

1) Too much bearish sentiment makes the market bullish

2) Look at the weekly charts of SPX etc They have positive divergences showing bullish forecast
 
You might definitely be on track...I was watching Bloomberg and found an
interesting article I want to link to. Here is a quote:

"U.S. stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...elation-to-bond-yields-highest-on-record.html

Hope I posted this information and gave credit to Bloomberg. Otherwise...just
call me a squirrel who finds a nut every once in a while. :)

By the way...I turned Bull based on contrary sentiment and S&P 500 valuation. I liked Wilshire 4500 (S fund) action on Friday. I may be early, but
I do feel strongly that buying in here is as good as entry point. I suspect the market will move sharply soon. Just my 2 sense. Now, if I can just find that Bull
avatar. Where did I place that little icon?
 
Looking at the tracker stats today, I wanted to see what percentage of folks are wading out of the ocean and heading to higher ground before the tsunami hits. I'm encouraged to see it's a pretty high number. The tide may shift back into equities if we get a July rally going, I'll be looking for that trade myself in July, but I'm hoping by early August people will be heading to shore in droves. Here's the numbers of people that are 50% or more in the G or F funds combined as of today, divided up into the four groups out of the 400 now in the tracker (with the TSP funds, indexes, and those with hidden percentages thrown out):

Top 100 - 66 of 96, or 69%
Next 100 - 59 of 92, or 64%
Next 100 - 27 of 97, or 28%
Bottom 100 - 18 of 98, or 18%

Overall, that's about 45% are now at least half in the G/F funds. As usual those at the bottom are entering the casino in large numbers to try to get back what they lost.

Evidence that points to deflation winning the battle is mounting:

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

Industrial metals and mining stocks are leading the way before gold probably peaks this summer...
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/rpuplava/2010/0628.html
 
Tsunami said:
Looking at the tracker stats today, I wanted to see what percentage of folks are wading out of the ocean and heading to higher ground before the tsunami hits. I'm encouraged to see it's a pretty high number. The tide may shift back into equities if we get a July rally going, I'll be looking for that trade myself in July, but I'm hoping by early August people will be heading to shore in droves. Here's the numbers of people that are 50% or more in the G or F funds combined as of today, divided up into the four groups out of the 400 now in the tracker (with the TSP funds, indexes, and those with hidden percentages thrown out):

Top 100 - 66 of 96, or 69%
Next 100 - 59 of 92, or 64%
Next 100 - 27 of 97, or 28%
Bottom 100 - 18 of 98, or 18%

Overall, that's about 45% are now at least half in the G/F funds. As usual those at the bottom are entering the casino in large numbers to try to get back what they lost.

Evidence that points to deflation winning the battle is mounting:

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html

Industrial metals and mining stocks are leading the way before gold probably peaks this summer...
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/rpuplava/2010/0628.html
Click to expand...

Interesting Stats Tsunami.

Thanks
 
The dollars peak today on this surge so far is 86.30, just one more move higher to 86.43 or higher is need to complete the wave B move higher if Daneric's chart is right: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TCk1m-Xv3XI/AAAAAAAAGFw/A0AvmlNsLXc/s1600/dollar.png

Also, the Daniel Code guy John Needham has been predicting a low around 6/30, then apparently a rally clear until about 8/3. http://www.thedanielcode.com/public/up/27June2010_LTTC.pdf That fits well with other gurus I read. That would also correspond perfectly with wave C down in the dollar per that Daneric chart above. I looked at what happened during wave A down in the dollar earlier this month from 6/7 to 6/18, and these were the results. If I had an IFT I'd be going to the I fund today myself....

F fund gained 0.12%
C fund gained 6.46%
S fund gained 7.53%
I fund gained 9.00%

Instead I'll have to hope the reversal holds off until 7/2, but I don't think it will.
 
Well, with S&P 1040 breaking down, and today's pathetic rally attempt, and some more reading last night and this morning with a Rush concert in between (they kicked of their U.S. tour in my city last night), the picture has changed and until proven wrong I have to go with Uptrend's view that we're just now entering the meat of a wave 3 decline. It's just not prudent to play it any other way right now. Wave 3's are the "point of recognition" and there sure seems to be a lot of that in the news lately. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 1 down could kick off in grand style tomorrow with bad ISM Index numbers.

Bonds should continue to outperform with the breakout this week in the VUSTX ascending triangle being a good view of that. Gold will break one way or the other soon from it's triangle as well, I'm guessing up. The F fund should have 3 months left to run at least per the current bullish "T": http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

Terry Laundry has been right on the money regarding his "collapsing bearish T" and it should continue into early December before the first serious rally.
 
Let's see, the head and shoulders pattern is now confirmed with an S&P target of 875...the 50dma is falling so fast it may cross below the 200dma tomorrow, and the 200dma has turned down today...the 500dma is at about 1024 and was penetrated this morning. The dollar is really tanking in it's wave C down and yet gold and stocks are tanking too.

Looks to me like it's nearly confirmed that deflation has won the battle. The tsunami is hitting shore on more beaches than just the PIIGS countries now. Welcome to a deflationary depression, the 1930's revisited. This is going to get painful.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ecession-flash-brightly-across-the-world.html

6_30_2010_16_5.gif
 
Last edited:
Yeah, we'll see what a genius I am if the dollar takes off again and drives down the markets with it. I'm hoping sweet Lara is wrong and the dollar falls a couple more weeks. http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/ I don't like the look of the futures though, down and falling. And gold appears to have peaked and is plummeting despite help from the dollar. That's telling. The markets have an opportunity here to rally clear until about 8/3 http://www.thedanielcode.com/download_archive.php?file=5July2010_LTTC.pdf but can't seem to grab the opportunity. CNBC needs to bring out the cheerleaders tomorrow.
 
Chris Puplava: "S&P 500 is very oversold and ripe for a bounce in the near term...[but a] drop into the 900s and even 800s in the S&P 500 cannot be ruled out."

We meteorologists could take a lesson in double-speak from the financial world. :)
 
I just found an old dirty crystal ball. It says this market rally will peak on 7/14 at 1085.3 for the S&P. That's the point where:

- Timewise, the last fall from 1131.2 on 6/21 would equal this rally from 1010.9 on 7/1 (8 days down, 8 days up);
- 1085.3 would be the 61.8% fibonacci retracement
- 1085.3 on 7/14 should be about when/where the S&P intersects the falling 50 day simple moving average (if not, maybe things could stretch another day or two, especially since options expiration is 7/16)
- a nice 3-3-5 corrective pattern will have time to complete (we're now in the final 5-wave thrust up, probably near the end of wave 1 of that 5 wave impulse).
- The dollar should be finishing up it's correction down to the 81-82 area at that time.

If wrong, the crystal ball will be on eBay late next week.
 
Tsunami said:
I just found an old dirty crystal ball. It says this market rally will peak on 7/14 at 1085.3 for the S&P. That's the point where:

- Timewise, the last fall from 1131.2 on 6/21 would equal this rally from 1010.9 on 7/1 (8 days down, 8 days up);
- 1085.3 would be the 61.8% fibonacci retracement
- 1085.3 on 7/14 should be about when/where the S&P intersects the falling 50 day simple moving average (if not, maybe things could stretch another day or two, especially since options expiration is 7/16)
- a nice 3-3-5 corrective pattern will have time to complete (we're now in the final 5-wave thrust up, probably near the end of wave 1 of that 5 wave impulse).
- The dollar should be finishing up it's correction down to the 81-82 area at that time.

If wrong, the crystal ball will be on eBay late next week.
Click to expand...


Tsunami, It looks like that old dirty crystal ball might be a keeper. :blink:
 
If everyone acts on the CNBC fund managers/Byron/Wilbur talk this morning the 7/14 point is too far out. It was yesterday. When are they going to invite our Birchtree.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

J
When to withdraw (public safety retiree)
Replies
13
Views
340
nasa1974
nasa1974
James48843
Statistics, anybody?
Replies
3
Views
116
tsptalk
tsptalk
James48843
OPM services online
Replies
9
Views
519
James48843
James48843
James48843
What will it be?
Replies
1
Views
127
JTH
JTH
JTH
Project: HAL-63
Replies
12
Views
429
Epic
Epic
Back
Top