Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

Today's rally hit the middle of the target box nicely.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TA7SO449UsI/AAAAAAAAFqU/1ComeNmbmSw/s1600/spx1.png

If it just started wave 3 of 3 of 3 down today, it could gap right below 1040 tomorrow and not look back.... there's been plenty of warnings of this risk, I just can't imagine being long right now. If not now, it's coming soon enough.



Laundry is only doing updates on this site on Wednesday's now. But as he explains, that will be enough from here on as things collaspe. I wish our TSP had an option more like VUSTX that he tracks.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

 

[Tsunami]

These kind of stats showing the psychology of investors always fascinate me.....

Just looking through the tracker real quick, my numbers are certainly off a bit, but I counted the following representing the 6/8/10 close:

- Those with gains year-to-date who are 80% or more in G or F: 85 of 111, or 76%

- Those with gains year-to-date who are 80% or more in C, S or I: 12 of 111, or 11%

- Those with losses year-to-date who are 80% or more in G or F: 52 of 271, or 19%

- Those with losses year-to-date who are 80% or more in C, S or I: 180 of 271, or 66%

You can draw your own conclusions, but those ahead are definitely mostly just content to keep it that way. And if this is representative of the general public out there, the majority of investors are aggressively trying to get back into the green.

 

[Bullitt]

Meanwhile, Rydex Bear/Bull Ratio just went over 1.10, the highest ratio of this 'bull market'.

I think investors have been aggressively seeking 'green' since July 2009 Tsunami. When I say investor, I mean pension funds, institutional money, and the individual investor. Not that it matters, but I think this BP disaster is putting some serious margin pressure on the big boys causing selling into any bit of strength. In 5 years we are going to be in huge trouble when boomers really begin to draw off those pensions and 401K's that haven't made a penny in years.

 

[Boghie]

Meanwhile, Rydex Bear/Bull Ratio just went over 1.10, the highest ratio of this 'bull market'.

I think investors have been aggressively seeking 'green' since July 2009 Tsunami. When I say investor, I mean pension funds, institutional money, and the individual investor. Not that it matters, but I think this BP disaster is putting some serious margin pressure on the big boys causing selling into any bit of strength. In 5 years we are going to be in huge trouble when boomers really begin to draw off those pensions and 401K's that haven't made a penny in years.

Bullitt,

I don't think most Boomers invested as much as we think they did in 401(k)s.

I think the pension draw downs will be killer. Pensions are invested in the market.

Also, Social Security draws money from a single source - the Federal Treasury. Pension funds and 401(k) assets are spread through the economy.

 

[alevin]

That's what I see-huge drawdown once boomers start spending their 401Ks and TSPs. I'm hoping it hits bottom about the time I'm thinking about retiring (since I'm a tailend boomer) so I can spend down a little bit for a couple years, and then the market takes off and grows as I'm withdrawing something less than the growth rate.

I'm saving as hard as I can at the moment-just got to the place where I for first time ever could start throwing 15% in the TSP hat this spring-with enough cash in the bank for roof replacement and emergency savings for several months.

Once I get done with the roof, I'll be putting the max allowed into TSP-finally-wouldn't it be ironic to finally hit peak savings ability and get laid off? On second thought, maybe I'll build that emergency stash a little higher first.

 

[Tsunami]

Alevin/Bohgie/Bullit - Agreed, simple demographics are starting to overpower the economy now.

"Theoretically, not until 2017-2018 does the downward part of my 'V' end, and begin a positive, upbeat 10-year uptrend working back to where we were in 2007 ... reaching that level in 2028."..."Red alert if the S&P500 breaks below 1,035."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hyperinflation-could-happen-suddenly-2010-06-10

Another failed rally attempt today? We'll see.

 

[Tsunami]

Anybody wanna sell me an IFT? After a day or two dip here, things are looking pretty bullish to about August 1st at this point. This is one of those times I wish there was an option to have additional IFT's for a fee.

The high 10-day TRIN number could be an early warning of the next credit crisis, just like in 2007.....time will tell.

 

[Scout333]

TSU, You may be better off without the IFTs. May be OK thru this week but looks like dark clouds on the horizon starting with Friday. I'm in for now but reallly nervous at this point! What to do, what to do?? Sticky pants may need cleaning soon. Good luck to us all!

 

[jdphx]

I wish there was an option to have additional IFT's for a fee.

And isn't this just offensive? That we should have to wish we could PAY to
be able to manage our own investments!! I understand (kinda) the costs to
keep track of all the moves, and update accounts, etc. But why not a little
leeway TSP people?

Who would be opposed to a set number of moves for the quarter, or even the
year? Who would be upset if we had 35 moves for the year? Heck, use them
all in one month if you want to. When your 35 are done, so are you!

I know I am beating a dead horse.... I just hate to see a potential play being taken away from someone because their hands are tied... Baaahhhhh!

Rant over.

Sorry Tsunami... Struck a chord, and I just needed to have your back!!

 

[Tsunami]

As the news focuses on other things, economies are continuing to deteriorate worldwide. Spain is circling the drain rapidly now......
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...me-with-Germany-as-borrowing-costs-surge.html

And more and more countries leading indicators are heading downhill.....
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2010/0616.html

There's a lot of accusations about BP lying about the flow rate from the well from day one, but in reality the issue could be that the rate is increasing rapidly from basic erosion. This article explains what is going on down there, and it's rather terrifying. Matt Simmons continues to contend that a relief well will not work, and a small nuclear weapon could be the only possible way to seal it by fusing the rock into glass. I've also heard that the casing below the sea floor may be ruptured to pieces so the oil is leaking out into the surrounding rock then up through the sea floor with no way of stopping it. The data from Matt Simmons about the size of the underwater blob of oil is stunning if true (seems exaggerated to me). BP may have had themselves the Saudi Arabia of the western hemisphere in that well, and now it's just filling up the Gulf of Mexico like a big toilet.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6609

I'd rate this one a must listen...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ma...ls-day-believes-oil-covers-40-gulf-beneath-su

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/865.html

I see in the future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. Corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until the wealth is aggregated in the hands of a few and the Republic is destroyed. - Abraham Lincoln letter to Col. William F. Elkins... Nov. 21, 1864

 

[Tsunami]

Regarding that high Arms Index reading a couple weeks ago, here's an analysis straight from the inventor of that index, Dick Arms. Pretty bullish at least short term:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32661148/June-7-2010

And on the (always) bearish side, a full hour interview of Bob Prechter's views:
(6/19/10, second hour) http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php

 

[KevinD]

Oh... By the way...


Happy Birthday!!!

 

[Tsunami]

Thanks KD. Are you the postal carrier that keeps filling up my mailbox with those AARP membership applications lately? :cheesy:

Hmmm, a 3rd carrier group moving into the gulf....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/12...rier-and-one-israeli-corvette-cross-suez-cana

 

[grandma]

Oh... By the way...
Happy Birthday!!!

Belated Happy Birthday Greetings, Tsunami
- I am so sorry I missed this! I hope you had a good day at home, anyway! It may be a bit late for the cake - probably stale-ish by now;
will this make up for the tardiness?
Your input on the board is always very much appreciated... grandma
View attachment 9609

 

[nnuut]

Missed it but Happy Birthday Tsunami

 

[Tsunami]

This morning's drop has created a 5-wave down pattern from Monday morning, not good if you're bullish. It's never certain, but that tips the odds that we've now moved into wave 3 down of the wave (1) down shown on Daneric's long term projected chart here:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TBq6AKVafHI/AAAAAAAAF4Y/FYAQxG-QUlc/s1600/wlshdaily.png

This tsunami wave will be worse than the May drop if correct. Later today or tomorrow a bounce should start that could give one final kiss to 1095-1105, a level not to be seen again for many years if the pattern is correct.

I like that chart since it fits with my long term guess that the first major low will come in 2012, and the final low in 2016 as the Kondratieff winter deflationary period ends. 2016 is when I'll turn into Birchtree's clone.

Terry Laundry's T Theory stuff continues to be right.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

 

[nasa1974]

This morning's drop has created a 5-wave down pattern from Monday morning, not good if you're bullish. It's never certain, but that tips the odds that we've now moved into wave 3 down of the wave (1) down shown on Daneric's long term projected chart here:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TBq6AKVafHI/AAAAAAAAF4Y/FYAQxG-QUlc/s1600/wlshdaily.png

This tsunami wave will be worse than the May drop if correct. Later today or tomorrow a bounce should start that could give one final kiss to 1095-1105, a level not to be seen again for many years if the pattern is correct.

I like that chart since it fits with my long term guess that the first major low will come in 2012, and the final low in 2016 as the Kondratieff winter deflationary period ends. 2016 is when I'll turn into Birchtree's clone.

Terry Laundry's T Theory stuff continues to be right.
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

First of all happy belated birthday. Now I hope that bounce lasts until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. July averages stink and that could fit into your wave theory. Hope your wrong about the major lows in 2012 and 2016.

 

[Scout333]

Definitely hope your right about that bounce thing! Could use a break from the market my nerves are about shot.

 

[Tsunami]

The bounce has apparently started, but I wouldn't expect it to last beyond tomorrow, Monday morning at the latest. A 38.2% rally would be about 1096.2 in the S&P, but 1100 makes for a nice round number target, and 1105 was supposedly strong support that would now be resistence. Next comes a wave 3 of 3 of 3 drop if the count is correct, that will be nasty.

These Elliott wave counts usually seem to go wrong, especially when things look to be ready to implode, but one of these days it will be correct. From what I've read most of the gurus have this as the primary count now, including Steve Hochberg of EWI, Bob McHugh.... I'm staying 100% in G/F to be safe and will just look for the bigger bounces for quick gains.

 

[crws]

echo Happy B-Day Tsunami-

I dunno, Nasa... the further this thing drifts along, the longer it will be in sustained up mode coming back, and thus more predictable when some definate direction returns.
I mean, it would appear the giddyness has left the building.
Don't know about you, but I feel better contributing to my TSP actually knowing that what I am putting in right now, (Allocation 100 G Fund- contributing 70S 20I 10F) at the very least stays intact...
At some point, and I would be skeptical of when, daBoyz will have to deal with the reality of where we are in recovery, and looking around, although INC's have cash- nobody's spending, they're just jabbering about doing so.
When it does take root and grow, it would seem to be less a lucky burp and more medium term growth....
I still have reservations that the market has taken the economic impact of the GOM into account, a major factor of the SE US economy.
The G20 meets next week and they posted their agenda- and unfortuneatly I saw no "more stimulus" on the list.
If you were my compadre' I would say GTFO!, WYSIWYG. :cheesy:

First of all happy belated birthday. Now I hope that bounce lasts until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. July averages stink and that could fit into your wave theory. Hope your wrong about the major lows in 2012 and 2016.