Short Term Outlook

[Warrenlm]

Lakshtun Achutan doubled down again this morning that the US is in recession as he speaks, since September. Although mightily challenged by Steve Liesman, he persisted that the contagion between forward looking indicators clearly says we are currently in recession. He said the market is looking at coincidence and short term indicators (and missing the forest for the trees). He said it is about six months into a recession that the investor herd recognizes the recession.

I seem to recall Meredith Whitney doubling down on her prediction that municipal bonds were in dire straits. Is it possible to both despair and have hope at the same time?

Related: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-21/markets/30305360_1_s-p-stat-marketwatch

"Consider that the last two times Achuthan leveraged his cycle research to make an out-of-consensus recession call were March 2001 and March 2008. After the first, the S&P 500 rose 14% to its 10-month average in May before falling 32% over the next 16 months. After the second, the S&P 500 rose 9.8% to its 10-month average in May before collapsing by 42% over the next nine months."​

 

[Show-me]

Focus today is on ITALY and not Greece. Big problems to come even if Greece comes to some sort of solution. Remember, there are more countries in PIIG than Greece and Italy will want the same deal Greece is getting when the time comes, if not a better deal.

 

[Warrenlm]

We've lost the Republic concept. We're now in national democracy or aristocracy. National leader, national news, national laws (it's easier for do gooders to persuade one body of legislators than 50 bodies), etc. And still the rich use corporate law to control expenses, get richer, and laugh at the rest of us. How bout those loans made to corporate shells that allowed richies to buy rich properties. How bout the lifestyles supported by making all expenses pretax. How about the evils that brought the nation to its knees and only have bruised egos as the people's retribution.

 

[nasa1974]

Doesn't look like it is going to be a good day. Major Asian markets closed red and Europe is not looking any better.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Doesn't look like it is going to be a good day. Major Asian markets closed red and Europe is not looking any better.

You never know these days.

 

[Warrenlm]

If you are interrupting your honeymoon.............

 

[jkenjohnson]

If you are interrupting your honeymoon.............

Not getting mremarried till this Friday. I will be mostly out of touch after today. Honeymoon starts Saturday.

 

[clester]

Usually, uncertainty causes markets to decline. Lately, we go up. Maybe it's on hope that the eu is getting fixed. New leadership could be worse though.

I'm watching the 200 dma and the recent high for clues. If we break out then it may be a buy, if we fail there then we could have a big drop. I'm thinking we will go up. Time for Santa ?

 

[clester]

We tested the 200 dma and right below the recent high. It's do or die time. Which way will it go? Futures down right now, but in this market that means nothing.

 

[Sensei]

Europe is heading due south w/o even a hint of slowing. We're all doomed!

 

[clester]

Europe is heading due south w/o even a hint of slowing. We're all doomed!

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water!

 

[Birchtree]

Just don't wear your yellow pokadot bikini and you'll be fine.

 

[Sensei]

Just don't wear your yellow pokadot bikini and you'll be fine.

You garden, I sleep. Good night.

 

[clester]

I would love to see a bounce at the 1200 level which is right at the 50 dma. That would be a buy IMHO. I have the urge to buy today. Patience.

 

[coolhand]

I'm not so sure the 50 dma will hold initially and I suspect this weakness may persist leading up to Thanksgiving. I'll probably do some token buying if we get down to 1200 though, but I'll reserve another IFT is we blow through that technical level.

I would love to see a bounce at the 1200 level which is right at the 50 dma. That would be a buy IMHO. I have the urge to buy today. Patience.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Only four out of all of my positions are in the green today. It would be stupid to follow my ingrained impulse to sell so I'll just have to sit on my hands today. I'm thinking that we'll probably be in the red as long as the EU headlines remain "above the fold."

Now that everyone reads their news online does that saying still have meaning?

 

[clester]

I'm not so sure the 50 dma will hold initially and I suspect this weakness may persist leading up to Thanksgiving. I'll probably do some token buying if we get down to 1200 though, but I'll reserve another IFT is we blow through that technical level.

It may not hold, that's why I would wait for a bounce. Who knows. Good news could retrace all of today.

 

[clester]

Interesting bounce this morning in futures. Not sure why except that folks are hoping for a bounce off such a big down day. I thought about it myself. Will that be enough for more a day? Will folks then take profits?

We broke below the last support about 1240 but look to get back above it this morning. Such a big down day is troubling though. I wonder if we are back to rotating from a big up day then a big down day. I think we need a clear break out above the 200 dma to get an all clear.

 

[clester]

Rally looking shaky here. We may drift lower today. Watching 1225 for support if we do.

 

[tsptalk]

Watching the market day after day, it seems like we very often see a repeating pattern that a day trader could take advantage of. During the first 15 to 30 minutes (possibly up to 60 minutes) of trading, it seems the market opens in one direction, fades that move, then resumes.

So on a big up day, you would short the market after a few minutes, let the indices come down, then cover the short. Going long again there would be optional, but fading those openings seem like a good bet for a very quick trade.