Market Talk / March 11th - 17th

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Did I hear right that the General Dollar store is selling socks??......:toung:
 
Briefing.com:
2:00 pm : Sellers remain an active bunch as the indices extend their reach to the downside. Further underscoring the bearish tone have been huge gains of 20% and 13% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index), respectively.
Both "investor fear gauges" spiking to session highs, suggesting investors are actively buying put protection, heighten the anxiety that has been priced into stocks ever since the "Shanghai Surprise" roiled global equity markets two weeks ago today.
 
James48843 said:
Nope. DOW now down over 200 and free-falling.


It's phase 3.

Next stop- 5-6% lower than here.
Click to expand...


James,

It is possible, but if the 200 DMA holds around 1360 S&P, program trading will kick in and we could see a high volume up day. However, I agree with you if 1360 fails the young Hedge Fund Managers could panic. We could head down to 1340 pretty quick, and that's around a 8% correction from the top.


I'm scale buying now in long-term accounts since it's hard to pick bottoms. In my opinion, I still think 1360 will hold, but I'm not willing to go 100% long on that opinion.



I added some today, and maybe some again tomorrow at the close. Small 20K moves into Large Cap. I should have shorted today, but just couldn't pull the trigger.


TSP currently 100% G Fund.
 
I think the sales report started all this today. The consumer has slowed. Inventories up. adjustable Mortgage rate set to adjust. Gas higher. Sub prime loans , housing down etc. If 30 yr rates go down it could refuel the housing business. What about inflation? What will CPI show? Can the fed lower rates?
 
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 13, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube in a 6 week low.

Con-Yak...................................Big sell off, mortgage and slowdown problems.

Jester-Yak................................A double bottom or a ledge?

Le Charts
SP031307.gif

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1377.95 -28.65........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.72 -0.13 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............57.93 -0.98 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow/Red.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................5.0 ......0.0 ......0.3 .....2.8 ......2.0
Today ......3 made IFT(s), 50% bearish, 50% bullish.

Yesterday..2 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.
 
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
oops, off by .5%
Yesterday i posted that i was looking for a 1.5% decline and i was right, but off by .5% as most of the indices declined around 2%, oh well. I see a few possibilities going forward.
1. Untested futures lows from last monday get tested by the cash indices(spx1368,rut755)
2. Today was a retest of the low from last week.
3. An ABC leg down has started which projects to 1335.

In cases 1/2 we should see an immediate rally here or a rally from spx 1368 level.
In case 3 the spx breaks below 1368 and keeps going down to 1335.

I am partial to cases 1 and 2.
I have read numerous arguments from some of the most intelligent bears about the start of a bear market and just don't see the "light" as yet. By my back of the napkin calculations, the US mkt is currently undervalued by about 28% and think its extremely unlikely that a bear mkt would start from such valuation levels.
Whether the Dow bottoms at 12K or 11800 or 11600, longer term(1-2yrs) its going well past 15K.

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/
 
Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Stronger Yen = Weaker Stocks
The stock market followed the script we had laid out for it almost perfectly on Tuesday. The retest of recent lows we had been expecting came in right on time -- with a little help from Japanese exchange rates to "grease the skids" to the downside.

What goes up -- Japanese Yen -- must push US stocks down. That was never more true than the past few weeks in the markets. On Tuesday, the Japanese Yen reversed to the upside after falling for the last week, during which time the US stock market breathed a sigh of relief and worked its way higher. But, that 900-pound Sumo wrestler from Tokyo beat the US stock market to a pulp on Tuesday, as the following one-day results.



Putting everything on a similar scale, the rise in the Yen amounted to only 113 Dow Industrials points, but the currency packed a killer punch for stocks.

And, if you think being invested in Japanese stocks might be a safe haven, in a word: don't. The Nikkei 225 Index is off 3% (the equivalent of about 370 Dow points) and is retesting its prior low as well.

The only market which benefitted from the rising Yen was our bond market, where prices rose back to retest their prior highs on a "flight to quality" move. The rise in bond prices is equivalent to a Fed rate cut. In fact, it's even more stimulative to the mortgage market than the Fed because mortgage rates are set by the bond market, usually the 10-Year Note rate, and not by the Fed itself.

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

Journalists are peppering the public with bearish stories which are typically "planted" by the big money interests in order to cause the public to worry and sell their shares. Those interests are well practiced at this financial game, allowing them to buy when the public is in a panic. You won't hear much about the "subprime mortgage" market going bad and spilling over into the economy, for example, at the top, but it will be repeated over and over in mantra-like fashion to "shake the tree" and allow the big money investors to accumulate the falling shares. That's how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, for the public will hide in the safety of money market funds during the next rally in stocks. By the time the public jumps back in, the big money interests will be only too happy to oblige them -- by selling some of their shares which have elevated in price!
 
Briefing.com: 08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. In the wake of this year's second worst sell-off, which saw the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq average declines of 2.1% and close at session lows, it's not surprising to see some follow-through selling this morning. As expected, overseas markets have taken a bearish cue from the drubbing endured by U.S. markets yesterday. Meanwhile, H&R Block (HRB) saying last night it will post an additional $29 mln in pretax losses from subprime mortgages than first reported and delay its Q3 regulatory filings merely serves as another reminder of the mortgage delinquency news that rattled stocks Tuesday.
 
Spaf;83625[U said:
Tally Can[/U]
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................5.0 ......0.0 ......0.3 .....2.8 ......2.0
Today ......3 made IFT(s), 50% bearish, 50% bullish.

Yesterday..2 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.
Click to expand...

Spaf, does the 50% bearish / 50% bullish refer to the percentage of funds total in g/f versus stocks or does it refer to the direction of trades. I'm thinking the former. (Never mind..it has to be the former.) Looking at yesterday versus day before, we had a little movement into stocks. Thanks for the ticker.
 
Briefing.com: 09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Early indications continue to point to a lower open for equities as an overly pessimistic market continues to focus on everything negative. Subprime mortgage concerns continue to act as an overhang even though we believe the broad economic impact of such problems is vastly overblown. The futures market has improved a bit since the last update, though, perhaps getting some help from a reversal in the yen following the deficit data. Nonetheless, the overall tone remains slightly negative as investors look for a bottom to be put in place after such an extensive sell-off yesterday.
 
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