Short Term Outlook

[tsptalk]

... Plus, to make it even more interesting, it's options expiration week so we could see some "pinning" where traders want certain stocks and indices to close in specific areas, then let them go on their own next week.

 

[Happy_Trails]

... Plus, to make it even more interesting, it's options expiration week so we could see some "pinning" where traders want certain stocks and indices to close in specific areas, then let them go on their own next week.

Monday should be a huge day post options and also, Sunday's Europe vote. Talk about interesting. Of course, the market is usually way ahead of me and so, perhaps Friday pre-Europe vote is a big day as well. I'm expecting some big days, just not sure how they will break.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Anyone else get the feeling that whatever happens in Europe tomorrow or over the weekend could result in a sell the news reaction? This whole setup kind of reminds me of the weekend heading into the debt ceiling debacle.

 

[Birchtree]

Nah, nah, nah, Europe is slowly being priced into the market and nothing will happen - earnings are the focus of attention.

 

[tsptalk]

They're talking about not having a solution until Wednesday of nex t week now. It is an options expiration week this week so Monday could be big - one way or the other - as the manipultion eases. Options traders are holding on trying to keep their options near their strike prices, but the market will release whatever gas they are holding on Monday.

 

[clester]

Looks like we will make a run at the highs today on latest Europe news. I'm thinking of adding to stocks today because I think we will break out. Looking at the charts we have good support now and if we go down and break those support levels it give me a good sell point. I think the 1200 ish level is now critical and a place to sell if we break. So, risk is limited to about 2% if we open around 1225. It's do or die time. One thing against the trade is that you have to hold over weekend with a lot of eu news possible.

 

[Bquat]

Looks like we will make a run at the highs today on latest Europe news. I'm thinking of adding to stocks today because I think we will break out. Looking at the charts we have good support now and if we go down and break those support levels it give me a good sell point. I think the 1200 ish level is now critical and a place to sell if we break. So, risk is limited to about 2% if we open around 1225. It's do or die time. One thing against the trade is that you have to hold over weekend with a lot of eu news possible.

You don't think this is a run up (bull trap) just to take profits after 2 PM. I've been seeing weakness lately and there was only news of a meeting for eu bussiness, not any results yet.:suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

You don't think this is a run up (bull trap) just to take profits after 2 PM. I've been seeing weakness lately and there was only news of a meeting for eu bussiness, not any results yet.:suspicious:

It wouldn't surprise me. But let's hope not.

 

[clester]

You don't think this is a run up (bull trap) just to take profits after 2 PM. I've been seeing weakness lately and there was only news of a meeting for eu bussiness, not any results yet.:suspicious:

Maybe, could cause a big short squeeze too.

 

[clester]

Maybe, could cause a big short squeeze too.

Looks like the squeeze has started. Support is now 1225 ish.

 

[clester]

Well, we have a clear breakout on s&p chart. Not much to stop climb on charts except the 200 dma IMO. Europe is ok for now. Sell point for me is 1225 ish area.

 

[tsptalk]

Is that like a stop loss - figuratively, to sell your stock funds?

 

[clester]

Is that like a stop loss - figuratively, to sell your stock funds?

Yes. It's just where I would move tsp funds to safety. It should provide good support. IMHO

I think it's important to have an exit plan to limit losses. So, at s&p at 1248 gives us 23 points down to that point. That's about 2% loss possible.

 

[clester]

Looking at the tsp fund returns for the month, they are all up over 10%! That is unusual. I'm wondering if we are nearing the highs for the month. We have 1 week till the new month and new trades. The 200 dma is about 20 points higher in s&p but still about 5% higher for S fund ($emw). The Europeans meet Wednesday and maybe a sell the news on that? I don't know. I just know I'm starting to get nervous.

 

[coolhand]

This market front runs everything en mass. I'm wondering what's left for the holidays? :notrust:

Looking at the tsp fund returns for the month, they are all up over 10%! That is unusual. I'm wondering if we are nearing the highs for the month. We have 1 week till the new month and new trades. The 200 dma is about 20 points higher in s&p but still about 5% higher for S fund ($emw). The Europeans meet Wednesday and maybe a sell the news on that? I don't know. I just know I'm starting to get nervous.

 

[nasa1974]

This market front runs everything en mass. I'm wondering what's left for the holidays? :notrust:

November could be interesting because most retail businesses are already gearing up their Christmas sales. December might be below expectations but the market will wait to see what the Black Fiday numbers are like before deciding which way to go. Today will be interesting and I am hoping for a slight move up, but tomorrow with the Euro meeting it just feels like the market will have a moderate move negative expecting no real news yet for recovery.

 

[Sensei]

Well Europe (and our futures) have certainly taken a dive. Not interesting to me in the least.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Time for a slight dip but I've been saying that (at least to myself) for several days. The market could easily try for a push to the 200SMA by the end of the day - if anything positive comes out of Europe later today.

 

[clester]

Time for a slight dip but I've been saying that (at least to myself) for several days. The market could easily try for a push to the 200SMA by the end of the day - if anything positive comes out of Europe later today.

I agree. A dip is good. It's all about earnings which were not good today. What will happen in Europe? Expectations are low or at least not high.

 

[Happy_Trails]

I agree. A dip is good. It's all about earnings which were not good today. What will happen in Europe? Expectations are low or at least not high.

Sounds like they have postponed tomorrow's meeting and so, today looks to be a downer. We will see though - still very early and this market has been very resilient of late fighting off any bad news and climbing higher.