clester
Well-known member
Guess I was right to be nervous. To bad I was stuck in stocks. What's going to happen tomorrow? 1225 are was my sell point and we are almost there.
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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Short Term Outlook
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
Well now we know about Europe. A big gap up to 200 dma looks imminent. That will put stock funds up over 12% for the month. Of course, I'm disappointed I got out yesterday but it could have gone the other way. I will be looking for a gap fill from today to get back in but no trades till next week. It will be interesting to see have many buy today.
Sensei
Well-known member
Japan Intervenes on Yen to Cap Sharp Rise
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...135327834.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Dollar up, stocks down?
clester
Well-known member
Japan Intervenes on Yen to Cap Sharp Rise
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...135327834.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Dollar up, stocks down?
The question this week is: will we hold the 200 dma? Sideways consolidation would be good.
Afishegg
Member
Japan Intervenes on Yen to Cap Sharp Rise
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...135327834.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Dollar up, stocks down?
When the dollar rises strongly, companies that export a lot of goods and companies that have large overseas operations will suffer as their overseas sales translate into lower US dollar profits. Many of the largest US companies fall into this category including PG, KO, CAT, DE, GE, BA, MSFT, INTC. That does tend to drive the prices of stocks in general lower.
Sensei
Well-known member
You are correct.
It seems to me that around the second trading day of October, we had bearish levels similar to the bullish ones we have now. That started this current bull run. Is today the start of a big ol' bear crap back down? Since I'm 100% S, more than likely yes.
Birchtree
Well-known member
In the 1990s equity markets in the US rallied as the US dollar rallied as well. The main idea is that under the fall melt-up scenario, do not let currency movements trick you into thinking that a strong dollar is bearish for equities. If anything, it would further the case for a Grand Surprise in risk assets into the end of the year. 2011 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through early January 1999.
Bquat
Well-known member
Al righty then. Give me some of that positive talk in my thread tomorrow, because I'm almost ready for a move and need a little push.
clester
Well-known member
With futures down big this morning, we may get that test today. The last swing low was 1221 I think. If we bounce from there, I think that would be good entry point with a stop loss or sell target at 1220. Tsp makes it hard though.
Patience, grasshopper!
clester
Well-known member
As of right now, we are there. Wow! This market is crazy. I think that will hold today, but not sure I would buy today. Watch out for that falling knife. Wait for bounce, IMHO .
Afishegg
Member
Problem with "waiting for the bounce" in this market is you buy on the bounce but by the time your IFT goes through your in when the market goes down and end up getting "sunk". Timing is everything now, example: many went in last wed on news of the euro bailout, got a nice boost Thursday (if they made the IFT by 12pm wed) then they made out like bandits. However, a couple of guys in my department who are casual about their tsp moved on Thursday...Big mistake! They are now watching their losses pile up. In real estate the saying is location location location.....tsp saying should be Timing Timing Timing.
clester
Well-known member
Well, that wasn't a bounce. It was a blow off top. That was a day to sell. You have to know the difference. A bounce to me is when you are going down and hit a predefined point of support.Problem with "waiting for the bounce" in this market is you buy on the bounce but by the time your IFT goes through your in when the market goes down and end up getting "sunk". Timing is everything now, example: many went in last wed on news of the euro bailout, got a nice boost Thursday (if they made the IFT by 12pm wed) then they made out like bandits. However, a couple of guys in my department who are casual about their tsp moved on Thursday...Big mistake! They are now watching their losses pile up. In real estate the saying is location location location.....tsp saying should be Timing Timing Timing.
The tsp makes it very difficult to time. 12:00 deadline and 2 trades ! Don't try to front run a bounce here IMHO
coolhand
Well-known member
I agree. The selling pressure we're seeing may be a prelude to something bigger. I'm looking to build a position over time rather than try to catch any of these volatile moves. I think we're still in a bear market longer term and that patience over the long haul may be the way to go.
Frixxxx
Moderator
I also agree. It appears that the Eurozone initial feelings are what firms like MF Global bought into. I think we are experiencing a Euro bubble and we are starting to see the pop. I think this will be a prelude to stagnation and soon inflation. The fed not reacting to this is the same as an ostrich with it's head in the sand.
Anyway, keep the blogs coming.
clester
Well-known member
I would feel better if we had sold off premarket and then rallied than this premarket rally. Feels like a dead cat bounce. I could be wrong but folks could take this as a day to get out if they got beat up the last 2 days. I would.Maybe up on hopes for fed today? QE3? I don't think that will happen. Who knows? I think we will rally soon though. Maybe next week.
clester
Well-known member
Well, here we go again with europe. I wonder if we will test the 50 dma soon ( about 1200). I think we may have a buying opportunity this week. First test will be to hold above the 1220-1225 area. It all rides on the politics of Europe and soon US with our super committee.
Sensei
Well-known member
What's going on in FrancE? The CAC is tanking hard.Similar threads
