Market Talk / February 18th - 24th

[Birchtree]

Yes, current prices are still at wholesale levels.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 21, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX, stays above the moving average and is still bullish, some say not overbought and not oversold.

Con-Yak...................................SPX, Slow-STO registers a overbought condition for socks!

Jester-Yak................................Bulls 70 - Bears 30.

Doodles:
Socks ended mixed for the day.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1457.63 -2.05.........1445.............1431

Dollar........................................84.22 +0.05 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............60.07 +1.22 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.1 ......0.0 ......0.5 ......2.4 .....4.1 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[350zCommTech]

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.1 ......0.0 ......0.5 ......2.4 .....4.1 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

Wow! Only 3.1 are in the G-fund.

Thanks Spaf

 

[Wheels]

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.1 ......0.0 ......0.5 ......2.4 .....4.1 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

Wow! Only 3.1 are in the G-fund.

Thanks Spaf

Spaf, how often are the tin box leaders updated? Is it weekly? If so we are looking at the results of recent performance more than anything else. 6.5 of the top 10 are in the S and the I and that's how they became leaders. I guess my point is that the tin box can't really be used as much of a future indicator when all it really is a reflection of recent history.

 

[Spaf]

Wheels,

The top ten (people) are a reflection of Rokid's Weekly Tally. I disregard any fund or system in the top 10. I want it to reflect the emotional aspect.
The allocations (positions) are updated daily from IFT's posted in accounts.
So as of today the top 10 were 30% Bearish (G,F), and 70% Bullish (C,S,I), but predominately holding stock allocations in the S and I funds.
The "Tin Box" is a current position of the top 10. Where they hop tomorrow only the bunny knows!..

Here is a copy of todays analysis:
View attachment 1415

Spaf, how often are the tin box leaders updated? Is it weekly? If so we are looking at the results of recent performance more than anything else. 6.5 of the top 10 are in the S and the I and that's how they became leaders. I guess my point is that the tin box can't really be used as much of a future indicator when all it really is a reflection of recent history.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com: 09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.2. Still shaping up to be a decent start for stocks as the futures market continues to trade above fair value. While the Dow looks to get back on track after its five-day winning streak was snapped, the Nasdaq is poised to attract even more buying interest. Apple (AAPL) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) finally ending a trademark battle over the use of the iPhone name are providing a floor of support while the primarily tech-heavy Composite will also get a boost from a grocer. Whole Foods (WFMI) is surging nearly 8% in pre-market action as investors applaud its $565 mln bid for rival Wild Oats Markets (OATS).

 

[James48843]

Is it time to trade the tin box-

for a lock box?

Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I noticed that the sentiment survey shows WAY optimistic today.

You still have time to vote- just look at the right hand side of the page Here

It's now moving into it's third week at traditionally "elevated optimism" levels.

but if history is any indication, perhaps the high optimisticness (is that a word?) looks like a LOT of people are optimistic, and historically that is a good indication for a breather.

Perhaps today's big move up is a great place to rest. We'll have to see.

How about you?

Are you a Bull or a Bear today?

Go vote!

 

[Birchtree]

I'm starting to notice a yellow tint when I look in the mirror - just as long as I don't sprout a beak I'm OK. I have to remain creative to stay long because this puppy is getting ready to rock. Take me to your leader. Snort.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Is it time to trade the tin box-

for a lock box?

Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I noticed that the sentiment survey shows WAY optimistic today.

You still have time to vote- just look at the right hand side of the page Here

It's now moving into it's third week at traditionally "elevated optimism" levels.

but if history is any indication, perhaps the high optimisticness (is that a word?) looks like a LOT of people are optimistic, and historically that is a good indication for a breather.

Perhaps today's big move up is a great place to rest. We'll have to see.

How about you?

Are you a Bull or a Bear today?

Go vote!

ah yes, the wall of worry, as long as there is even slight sentiment or 'whisper' that we're overdue a correction, then my climbing shoes are on. When we all get into the 'new market' mind-set ala late 90's, 'business cycle doesn't exist, market will keep going up', then caution is advised. I know I was guilty of that euphoric sentiment.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

although.... it would be good to sidestep a may-june 06 type pullback

 

[Spaf]

Must be bunny hopping day!!..............

 

[weatherweenie]

Scotty! We need more power!!!

 

[weatherweenie]

Low volume today.

 

[Spaf]

We are in a tractor beam!.......:cheesy:

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 22, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX, There is buying interest with a bullish trend, trading is within normal conditions.

Con-Yak...................................SPX, Signs are now below being overbought, but some of the curves appear to be descending!

Jester-Yak................................Bulls 60 - Bears 40, we seem to be losing some bulls!

Doodles:
Socks ended mixed for the day.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1456.38 -1.25.........1445.............1431

Dollar........................................84.33 +0.11 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............60.95 +0.88 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.6 ......0.0 ......0.5 ......3.4 .....2.6 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[clester]

How big a deal is the Iran thing. I know we'll have 2 aircraft carriers in the area soon. If we attack the market will drap fast. With no other news should we worry?

 

[Tempest]

Another way to look at Iran situation-both sides are hanging tough. Both sides want something and both don't want to give up anything to to achieve their aim. All we see is what is public-we don't know what is happening behind the scenes and what back channel negotiations are going on.

Look at it this way-if you were going to enter into negotiations or bargaining-your going to hang tough and not come cheap.
For me at least if somebody says " I won't do this" or "I will not give this up" or "I won't tolerate this" is setting his or hers first price.
Let the 'games' begin.

I can't say I ever bargained for anything in the Middle East-But I have in Central America.
You get a better price if you say 'No' or 'Not interested' or the old standby after playing hard to get (works neary a 100% of the time to lower the price further)
"Okay great-But-I have to go to my hotel/car/cruise ship and get the cash-I don't have enough on me-I'll be back later." :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: You never spring that at the beginning -always at the end. Kinda like a Columbo {"Oh yeah - Jus one more thing...}

Oh yeah-one other thing-never try to set the other side up to be humiliated. Everything goes 'south' and you could get a nasty surprise. Next week is always another day. Your enemy today is your trading partner tomorrow. Saving face isn't just something in Asia.

FWIW

 

[The_Technician]

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition
February 22, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX, There is buying interest with a bullish trend, trading is within normal conditions.

Con-Yak...................................SPX, Signs are now below being overbought, but some of the curves appear to be descending!

Jester-Yak................................Bulls 60 - Bears 40, we seem to be losing some bulls!

Doodles:
Socks ended mixed for the day.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1456.38 -1.25.........1445.............1431

Dollar........................................84.33 +0.11 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............60.95 +0.88 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.6 ......0.0 ......0.5 ......3.4 .....2.6 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

Spaffy, I think you need and International index there.....like Internationally- 8.8 Reason IRAN

 

[James48843]

A little steam blowing off? Or a new direction for the Dow?

 

[weatherweenie]

A little steam blowing off? Or a new direction for the Dow?

Not ready to throw in the towel for S fund today. Has the look of an ascending intraday pattern.