Market Talk / March 4th - 10th

[Spaf]

Spaf, could you say if you noticed anything in this analysis? For example- people seem to be moving to safety or I-fund? Your previous days Tally is way back there. Tough to get an idea ofwhere things are going w/o going back and looking.

FS,
There might be a better way to look at it. Current conditions are 40% bearish, 60% bullish. I go 20 either side of 50. So 30 - 70 = indecision. 30 or less = extremely bearish. 70 or more = extremely bullish.

I need some way to use our expertise to displace the inaccurate news we hear from the so called market guros, and those with strategies of long term.
This is TSPTalk and we have B&H and Traders. All welcome! No disrespect to the B&H, but I'm a trader. Using the Leader Talley is a tool. Just like the MACD, RSI, Slow-STO, MA, etc. And I'm open to any suggestions for improvement.
Rgds
Spaf

 

[ebbnflow]

Spaf, I think FundSurfer was complaining about having trouble finding the before, so he could compare it with the after (movement). Maybe you could post the before and call it 'Before: xx xx xx xx xx' and right underneath it the 'After: xx xx xx xx xx.'

 

[Spaf]

Spaf, I think FundSurfer was complaining about having trouble finding the before, so he could compare it with the after (movement). Maybe you could post the before and call it 'Before: xx xx xx xx xx' and right underneath it the 'After: xx xx xx xx xx.'

Sorry, misunderstood!
I can set it up easy!
What do you guys think is best..............Gimmy your thoughts!!

PS: The folks on FS's Tally move slower then Rokid's Tally, and they seem more in-tune.

 

[The_Technician]

ISM inventories point to smooth moderation
Short Take - March 7, 2007
Mark Pender, Senior Writer, Econoday

Link--> http://tinyurl.com/yrp2an

Talk of a U.S. economic slowdown and perhaps even a recession has shaken up the international markets for the last week. But the latest reports from the Institute for Supply Management, known as the ISM, should ease this concern. Last week's ISM report on the manufacturing side showed solid gains that lower the risk the sector itself will fall into recession. Monday's ISM report on the non-manufacturing side did show slower growth in the headline index but new orders were solid and firmly in line with trend pointing to moderate and consistent growth ahead. Both reports are in line with the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow the economy to a non-inflationary sustainable pace. Nothing really to come apart about.
This report will focus on the ISM's inventory readings which indicate that the nation's purchasers, at the front line of an economic slowdown, are successfully managing their supplies to match demand. The manufacturing reports are issued on the first business day of the following month and January's report (released on February 1), showed one of the sharpest month-to-month inventory contractions in the 59-year history of the report -- an 8.6 percentage point swing to 39.9. The reading was soon confirmed by the ISM's non-manufacturing report (issued on each month's third business day) which showed a 6.5 point fall in January inventories to 47.0, the first sub-50 reading in two years and the third sharpest downswing in this report's 10-year history.
The graph below tracks the ISM's manufacturing inventory index over the past three recessions: 1981-2, 1990-91, and 2001. Each time this index hit its low during -- not in advance of the recession. This suggests that supply managers at the time were taken by surprise, adjusting their inventories in reaction to -- not always in anticipation of -- declining demand. And bloated inventories deepen a recession, as firms have to cut back production and sack workers to realign supply with demand. The latest reading suggests that supply managers are thinking ahead, adjusting their inventories before it's too late. Still, tracking the gridline at the 40-level in the graph shows how rare and potentially unsettling January's reading was. February's inventory index, issued late last week, popped up to 44.6.

A quick note on what the ISM inventory index means: sub-50 readings indicate that a greater share of the sample's respondents are reporting a month-to-month decline in their own inventories than those reporting a month-to-month rise. The greatest portion typically reports no month-to-month change. The ISM's sample consists of purchasing executives -- that is leading supply managers at U.S. firms asked specifically to respond to U.S. conditions only. Firms in the sample are selected by their industry and its relative contribution to GDP, whether on the goods-producing side for the manufacturing report or the service-providing side for the non-manufacturing report with the latter including the grayer areas of mining, utilities and construction. Sample size for any one report is large enough at 250.

There was another big concern with the December manufacturing report. The new orders index, the report's leading index pointing to future business activity, fell below the inventory index, at least initially before annual revisions reversed the inversion to only a close call. An inversion suggests that orders slowed so fast that supply managers were unable to adjust inventories downward. The graph below shows how rare inversions or close calls are, with two of them hitting during recessions.
It's been my pleasure for about 10 years to conduct monthly interviews, on behalf of Market News International, with the ISM survey chiefs. Norbert Ore, head of the ISM manufacturing side, always stresses how uncomfortable manufacturing purchasers get when inventories suddenly rise relative to orders. Supply managers want to keep a nice gap between orders and inventories, seen in the graph's white space between the red of inventories and the blue of orders. Inventories are expensive to hold and present a risk should demand, or availability of supply, suddenly shrink. Movement in the last two months has been very promising, showing that supply managers have cut back inventories at the same time that orders have improved. Ore is upbeat on the outlook for the manufacturing sector, hopeful that conditions have steadied and are poised in the months ahead to begin an incremental climb -- right in line with the soft landing.

The ISM manufacturing report also has a customer inventory index. This is a newer index with 11 years of history that centers on respondents' subjective view of inventory levels at their customer firms. Since one's customer is also another's supplier, the index tracks sentiment through the manufacturing supply chain. As the graph below shows in red, the index has been steadily climbing from mid-2006 to the latest report in February and now stands at a six-year high. This means that purchasers think other firms are heavy with inventory. By the way I chose red in the graphs to identify inventory, reflecting supply managers' sensitivity to the topic. The graph below shows one of the effects when inventories are too high, that is lower prices.

Inventories are less of a hot button for purchasers on the non-manufacturing side. Here lead times are much shorter. As ISM non-manufacturing chief Anthony Nieves explains, providing services is much less goods-intensive and far less time consuming than producing an aircraft. Here just-in-time inventory is the only game in town as supply managers keep only enough on hand to keep costs down while at the same time ensuring continuity of supply. Even in the construction sector where building can take several months, Nieves says lead times are much shorter than on the manufacturing side. Lead times on the manufacturing side, in fact, often span years. But the graph below does show that inventories for both groups move roughly together. Supply managers across the economy were reporting month-to-month inventory declines a little bit into and during the 2001 recession. Inventories then gradually rose through the expansion until the jolt at the beginning of this year, shown in both sectors.

The bottom line
The ISM reports also offer data on the availability of goods and labor. These lists, known as short-supply lists, are thankfully very short right now and are a big plus for the economic outlook, indicating that supply managers have the freedom to work down supply without sweating over continuity of supply and that they can get what they need if and when they need it. Another big plus is an absence of significant shipping delays with the supplier delivery indexes of both reports tame. This is no surprise given easing demand and a lack of shipping disruptions such as 2005's hurricanes for instance. Also many freight companies are complaining that business has definitely fallen off, bad for the share prices of such companies but good for delivery times. Sufficient supply and smooth delivery point to stable prices and an orderly adjustment for inventories. Each month the ISM reports offer the first look at the nation-wide supply chain, which right now is pointing to orderly economic moderation.

 

[FundSurfer]

Spaf, I think FundSurfer was complaining about having trouble finding the before, so he could compare it with the after (movement). Maybe you could post the before and call it 'Before: xx xx xx xx xx' and right underneath it the 'After: xx xx xx xx xx.'

Yes, what he said... except it wasn't a complaint... just a suggestion for improvement.

Spaf, are you saying that the leaders from the last 12 months tend to move less than the leaders for YTD?

 

[Spaf]

Yes, what he said... except it wasn't a complaint... just a suggestion for improvement.

Spaf, are you saying that the leaders from the last 12 months tend to move less than the leaders for YTD?

When I was using Rokids top 10, they seemed to move more often.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 07, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Maybe a bottom is forming.

Con-Yak...................................Careful it's not a ledge.

Jester-Yak................................Oh good grief!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1391.97 -3.44.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.77 -0.27 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.82 +1.13 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.5 ......0.5 ......1.8 .....1.0 .....3.3
Today .....4 made IFT(s), 40% bearish 60% bullish.

Yesterday 1 made IFT(s), 40% bearish 60% bullish.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.5. Early indications are pointing to a sharply higher open for stocks. More signs of stabilization in overseas markets, as a weakening yen further alleviates liquidity concerns tied to a potential unwinding of the carry trade, have improved sentiment. Japan's Nikkei index surged 1.94% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 1.36%. However, that disposition is certainly subject to change throughout the remainder of the session as investors sift through weak February same-store sales data and anxiously await tomorrow's closely-watched jobs report, given its influence on the market's outlook for the economy and monetary policy.

 

[weatherweenie]

Feb. same-store sales weaker than expected: Notable misses include WMT, COST, FD, DDS, LTD, ANF, AEOS, CHS

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com: Initial claims just checked in, falling 10K to 328K (consensus 335K). However, since the market remains more focused on Friday's more influential February employment report to get a clearer picture of labor conditions, the claims data have had little impact on pre-market trading.

 

[FundSurfer]

I thought a little historical perspective was in order. Remember May 06, the last big drop? Remember the volitilitiy that followed? I've added a graph that shows the daily movement of the S-fund last May to now. You should notice several days with +/- moves greater than 1% following the big drop. This is a recipe for whipsaw. Markets do not behave the same exact way twice, but this is something to consider. JMHO.

View attachment 1482

Last May also followed what Tom said about a retest...

 

[Beavis]

When I was using Rokids top 10, they seemed to move more often.

Rokid's is the top ten for the year (last 2 months) and may be more volatile than the top ten for the last 12 months. JMHO.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 08, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks advance.

Con-Yak...................................Still got a ways to go.

Jester-Yak................................A sigh of relief!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1401.89 +9.92.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................84.11 +0.34 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.64 -0.18 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow/Green.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.4 ......0.0 ......1.4 .....1.9 ......2.2
Today .....3 made IFT(s), 44% bearish, 56% bullish.

Yesterday 4 made IFT(s), 40% bearish, 60% bullish.

 

[tsptalk]

ISM inventories point to smooth moderation
Short Take - March 7, 2007
Mark Pender, Senior Writer, Econoday

Tech -
Do have a link I can add to this article?

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Spaf]

Corrected!

Tech -
Do have a link I can add to this article?

Thanks,
Tom

 

[The_Technician]

Tech -
Do have a link I can add to this article?

Thanks,
Tom

Yeap, sorry, didn't think about it...

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...urce_shorttake/year/2007/weekly/10/index.html

if that don't work just go to the . com and look under the current calendar, it was on published on Mar 7.....

I had to go to properties to get it...

 

[robo]

Stocks: A Yen to Rally
The Japanese Yen was again the focus for stocks Thursday. Overnight trading saw the Yen retrace all of its gains this week and this weakness in the Yen was an all-clear signal to stock traders to rally. The US markets gapped higher and were able to hold on to most of their gains into the closing bell:

Thus, there is one overriding factor that is controlling the movement of stock prices right now. Although we expected to see a rally at some point Thursday, our expected retest of the lows did not occur before that rally got started. That retest is likely still out there somewhere in the future. With the Japanese fiscal year ending on March 31st, the retest appears to have been delayed until later in the month.

Thursday evening/Friday morning action in the Yen saw it continue modestly lower, thus making it appear that the stock rally would continue on Friday. Or, perhaps the stock market will stop obsessing about the Yen and start focusing on fundamentals, for the US Employment Report is due out early Friday morning in Washington. From the advance data, there's a pretty good chance the report will be weak and lead to a rise in bond prices (drop in long term interest rates, which is bullish for stocks) as traders factor in a Fed ease sooner rather than later.

The other structural factor that's supporting higher stock prices in the next few trading days is the Wall of Worry which has grown up over the last week of volatile up-and-down trading. The unwinding of these bearish bets will put upward pressure on the market as it usually does leading into options expiration on the third Friday, now just a week away.

Although put purchases continue to float the market on a sea of bearish bets, NASDAQ-100 Trust traders (QQQ) are loading their boats with calls. There, the Wall of Worry may have a small leak developing into a much larger one.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[mailmanusa]

Anyone know what time the jobs report comes out today? Thanks

 

[Show-me]

Anyone know what time the jobs report comes out today? Thanks

8:30AM Eastern time.

 

[Show-me]

<sound of pin dropping>

:worried: