Market Talk / Nov. 12 - Nov. 18

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Spaf

Spaf

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The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
November 12, 2006 ​

Frog.gif

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Bulls seem to be in control.

Con-Yak...................................More earnings and data to come.

Jester-Yak................................I think the bears are sleeping!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1380.90, up +16.60 for the week!
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert (-1%): 1376. Trail (-2%): 1363.
Trend (MACD-Hist).....................increasing at -0.928.
Overbought/Sold (S-STO)...........[80] 72.60 [20] decreasing

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................59.59, up +0.45 for the week.
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Green.

Tin Box:
TSP:........................................Safe; capital preservation.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.64..F=11.11..C=15.23..S=18.24..I=21.17
....(1 week past)........G=11.63..F=11.03..C=15.04..S=17.88..I=20.89
....(2 week past)........G=11.62..F=11.04..C=15.18..S=18.08..I=21.01
....(3 week past)........G=11.60..F=10.97..C=15.08..S=17.90..I=20.73
....(4 week past)........G=11.59..F=10.94..C=15.04..S=17.93..I=20.44

Le Chart​

SP5001110-1.gif

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
[Channel annotations added]​
 
Dollar Declines After Reuters Says China May Diversify Reserves

By Daniel Kruger and Min Zeng

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to the lowest against the euro in more than two months after Reuters reported People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he has a ``clear'' plan to diversify the country's foreign-exchange reserves.

China's foreign-currency reserves have exceeded $1 trillion to become the most ever held by a single country, China Central Television reported on Nov. 7, citing the nation's currency administrator. U.S. assets may comprise 72 percent of China's reserves, according to Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. Read the rest of the article here.

-------------------------------------------
Maybe just what the I-fund needs right now. :)
 
Nice article ebb... This could really impact the dollar short and long term.

Short: Dollar nose dive as the impulsive type runs to the hills. It will not go too far too fast as those with big dollar reserves (China) will want to protect their investment.

Long: If China does really begin to shift currency reserves it could do so slowly. It would give us a slow downward trend with sellers greeting every dollar rally.
 
Thanks for the article, ebb. If the dollar drops in value, does that bring inflation, because it would cost more dollars to get the same services? At least with inflation, the market could sky rocket fast. Then we'd have to cash out of the market and go into the G fund before a corrective recession kicks in.
 
08:30 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures versus fair value continue to indicate a modestly lower open for the cash market. It is worth noting that there are no economic reports scheduled for this morning to potentially disrupt the market. However, with the Q3 earnings season in the rearview mirror and the market's focus now on economic data, investors may wait on the sidelines until Retail Sales and PPI reports tomorrow provide updates on consumer spending and whether inflation remains in check. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.
 
09:00 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq 100 futures are now trading above fair value, suggesting more of a mixed open for the major averages. One of the tech-heavy Composite's more notable early movers is Qualcomm (QCOM), which is more than 2.0% in pre-market trading following reports that Motorola (MOT) will use QCOM chips in its UMTS handsets. Express Scripts (ESRX) is another early leader after it was upgraded at JP Morgan Chase. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.
 
09:16 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5.
 
Ba-Da Bing, step the heck back so a jumping bear doesn't land on you today.

The fear of loss can keep a market timer from executing a trade. Fears cloud decisions. And decisions clouded by fear, that feel right at the time they are made, are more often than not...wrong. Successful market timers actually make their profits off the fears of the majority of investors. I will not choke.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
November 13, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................That morning shot really scattered them bears!

Con-Yak...................................They were just teasing the bears!

Jester-Yak................................It's nice and comfey in the club house!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1384.42, up +3.52
Stops......................................Alert: 1376. Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................increasing at -0.617.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 71.08 [20] decreasing.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................58.58, dn +1.01
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
TSP........................................Safe; capital preservation.
 
From STA:

Monday before Nov. expiration DOW down 5 of the last 6 after up 5 in a row.

Week before Thanksgiving S&P up 11 of last 13, 2003 broke 11 year run.

November expiration day DOW down 4 of last 6 after up 4 in a row.
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.2. Futures versus fair value are pointing to a slightly lower open for stocks. While uninspiring quarterly results from Dow components Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) are contributing to the lack of participation from buyers, the market remains more concerned about what economic data at 8:30 ET will say about the health of the consumer and inflation.
 
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