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Market Talk / Mar 5 -11, 2006
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
dell said:
I already floated this offer during the first half of last year when I couldn't pick my nose let alone the right fund to be in. I didn't get any takers. Of course if memory serves me I was charging a lot more than $10.00 a head. Keep your chin up and keep studying. It turned around for me and I'm sure it will for you too.
Dave
<><
NYSE is now for profit. How will that play out?
I read theat they have had a large number of people going into the market. That these people are the individual investors. That this in history has signald the start of a fall for the market.
Why O Why is my crystal ball not working. :worried:
I read theat they have had a large number of people going into the market. That these people are the individual investors. That this in history has signald the start of a fall for the market.
Why O Why is my crystal ball not working. :worried:
SkyPilot
Well-known member
Looks like we have been turned down on the possibility of a REIT fund, so no hope for precious metals, etc., at this time either. I wonder if there is some concern that too much money would be pulled from the G fund, and dilute the ability of the Treasury Dept. to raid TSP and float the Federal Budget? No, I am sure that couldn't be the case. :nuts:
The article covered several areas and points of view. The part that covered the individual investor said these are the last people to come into the market before it takes a big hit. When these people come in then the market goes down. The idea being all the money that can come in has come in with these people, they are the last in. The other investors pull out and the market falls.
Retail investors rush in. Uh oh.
Individuals are jumping back into the market this year, which could be a bad sign for the market. But wait...
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 8, 2006: 12:32 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Individual investors are moving back into stocks at the fastest pace in years. Uh oh.
The stock market is already struggling with uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign will end, an expected slowdown in economic growth in the second half, higher energy prices, rising Treasury bond yields and other inflationary factors. The last thing it needs is for retail investors to rush in.
Why? Because as history makes clear, by the time individual investors are jumping in, that's the time the bull market is pretty much over. Individual investors are often the last hurrah, when most of the advance has already happened. (For one recent example see the end of the Internet bubble, circa 2000).
[more]
Individuals are jumping back into the market this year, which could be a bad sign for the market. But wait...
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 8, 2006: 12:32 PM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Individual investors are moving back into stocks at the fastest pace in years. Uh oh.
The stock market is already struggling with uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign will end, an expected slowdown in economic growth in the second half, higher energy prices, rising Treasury bond yields and other inflationary factors. The last thing it needs is for retail investors to rush in.
Why? Because as history makes clear, by the time individual investors are jumping in, that's the time the bull market is pretty much over. Individual investors are often the last hurrah, when most of the advance has already happened. (For one recent example see the end of the Internet bubble, circa 2000).
[more]
Birchtree
Well-known member
Please Mr Custer I don't wanna be a BULL.
Oaktree,
IMHO your best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns - even if you follow certain indicators.
The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bear paws from recognizing the prevailing trend - it's sort of like having confidence in your kevlar - take the hit and see what happens.
Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995-1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P 500 index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997. The bullish view of the recent lack of broad market dips is that it's a sign of underlying strength of the advance.
Oaktree,
IMHO your best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns - even if you follow certain indicators.
The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bear paws from recognizing the prevailing trend - it's sort of like having confidence in your kevlar - take the hit and see what happens.
Consider that during the roaring market advance of 1995-1999 there were five pullbacks of 10% or greater in the S&P 500 index, one each in 1996, 1998, and 1999, and two in 1997. The bullish view of the recent lack of broad market dips is that it's a sign of underlying strength of the advance.
Cortez
Member
Birchtree said:
Birchtree, Your analysis would infer that it is best to remain 100% in stock funds at all times, even when you are taking a hit and your guts are churning. Isn't this simply the buy and hold strategy that worked so well in 2000 and 2001?
Personally, the way to game TSP is to be G fund until the market either shows strength at a lower level or the market convincingly breaks out of this trading range resistance and pulls back and successfully tests the new support level. In other words, I will let the market tell me where to enter long. Allocation between CSI is a whole different issue.
Cortez
Member
SkyPilot said:My guts churn either way...Either over what I might miss, or what I might lose.
I believe in risk management and capital preservation first and foremost. So I'd rather give my money to Sec. Snow and collect a penny on it now and then as opposed to betting on a breakout from a trading range that has become an investment version of the Iraqi quagmire. The risk to reward is not inviting when any new high has failed since early January.
Birchtree
Well-known member
My point exactly
Cortez,
There really is limited risk in the TSP funds per se. That's why they are retirement funds - Uncle has a fiduciary responsibility. There is nothing wrong in being a member of the majority. I just prefer the option of collecting nickes and dimes instead of pennies - even though I still bend over and pick them up. There are many long term TSP participants who rode the thunder of the last correction from 2000 through the bottom of 2003 - and they bought via dollar cost averaging all the way down feeling every painful dollar buying more worthless shares of that good for nothing C fund. And then had to suffer the consequences of buying that thing all the way back up - buying more in 2004 and 2005. What to do now - well just keep buying all the way to the top, which may be more than three years away. It's all in the sacrifice an individual is ready to accept. I'm a contrarian bull not by nature but from experience - I prefer to set my strategy longer term and let the market come to me - sort of like remaining 100% in the C fund when many worthy participants are investing their money in the I fund - but I own an international in another account - and been there since July 2002 when the first of a triple bottom came in. And I continue to dollar cost average this fund to the up or downside - it matters not. Japan put in a quadruple bottom over the last 5 years and I'm a bottom feeder when necessary.
Dennis
Cortez,
There really is limited risk in the TSP funds per se. That's why they are retirement funds - Uncle has a fiduciary responsibility. There is nothing wrong in being a member of the majority. I just prefer the option of collecting nickes and dimes instead of pennies - even though I still bend over and pick them up. There are many long term TSP participants who rode the thunder of the last correction from 2000 through the bottom of 2003 - and they bought via dollar cost averaging all the way down feeling every painful dollar buying more worthless shares of that good for nothing C fund. And then had to suffer the consequences of buying that thing all the way back up - buying more in 2004 and 2005. What to do now - well just keep buying all the way to the top, which may be more than three years away. It's all in the sacrifice an individual is ready to accept. I'm a contrarian bull not by nature but from experience - I prefer to set my strategy longer term and let the market come to me - sort of like remaining 100% in the C fund when many worthy participants are investing their money in the I fund - but I own an international in another account - and been there since July 2002 when the first of a triple bottom came in. And I continue to dollar cost average this fund to the up or downside - it matters not. Japan put in a quadruple bottom over the last 5 years and I'm a bottom feeder when necessary.
Dennis
..........:suspicious: ...........:cheesy:
