sugarandspice
Well-known member
Was wizard bashing as well? Or just negative? Banned or deleted for being negative is a poor policy in my opinion.
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Market Talk / Mar 5 -11, 2006
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................What a trading range. Equities and bond whopping day!
Other Yak...............................Lube going down!
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1278.26, dn -8.97
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.118, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+3.84, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........67.11, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 48.72 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at................62.41, dn +1.26
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow; still in trading range.
Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 6, 2006 Closing
Daily Edition
Mar. 6, 2006 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................What a trading range. Equities and bond whopping day!
Other Yak...............................Lube going down!
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1278.26, dn -8.97
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.118, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+3.84, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........67.11, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 48.72 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at................62.41, dn +1.26
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow; still in trading range.
Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA
JOVARN said:
The lower low has got to be a concern but I'm watching the 1270 - 1275 area / 50-day moving average on a closing basis.
Since we have to anticipate more than react, I may run for safety on a morning breach of those areas but that also sets up the possibility of a whipsaw (which I am very good at catching
).Sorry I didn't respond earlier. The email notifications were not working for a while there.
Tom
It's too early to say, but the early morning strength in the dollar, overnight weakness in the Asian and European markets, combined with the EFA being down yesterday while the I fund was up, does not sound like a good recipe for the I fund today.
We have some good I fund analysts in here. Does this sound right to you?
We have some good I fund analysts in here. Does this sound right to you?
Birchtree
Well-known member
Labor costs fall - where is my small raise?
I had the anticipation and expectation that the negative productivity numbers would be available this morning when I logged on along with some succint commentary. I guess I created more work for myself.
"Business productivity falls 0.5%, downward revision to fourth-quarter numbers less than expected, but still first decline in five years, labor costs also fall." Bernanke are you watching the data?
"For 2005 as a whole, productivity grew 2.9 percent, the smallest increase since 2.4 percent growth in 2001 and slowing from a 3.4 percent increase in 2004. A slowdown in productivity also tends to drive up labor costs. Unit labor costs were up 2.6 percent in 2005, the largest annual increase since 2000. Labor costs had grown just 1.1 percent in 2004 and saw no growth in 2003". There doesn't appear to be any rampant inflation in those numbers.
"St Louis Federal Reserve president Poole says its better to overshoot the mark with interest rate increases, then loosen, rather than let inflation get out of control." The small blessing here is that Mr Poole is not a voting member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee this year.
www.money.cnn.com
I had the anticipation and expectation that the negative productivity numbers would be available this morning when I logged on along with some succint commentary. I guess I created more work for myself.
"Business productivity falls 0.5%, downward revision to fourth-quarter numbers less than expected, but still first decline in five years, labor costs also fall." Bernanke are you watching the data?
"For 2005 as a whole, productivity grew 2.9 percent, the smallest increase since 2.4 percent growth in 2001 and slowing from a 3.4 percent increase in 2004. A slowdown in productivity also tends to drive up labor costs. Unit labor costs were up 2.6 percent in 2005, the largest annual increase since 2000. Labor costs had grown just 1.1 percent in 2004 and saw no growth in 2003". There doesn't appear to be any rampant inflation in those numbers.
"St Louis Federal Reserve president Poole says its better to overshoot the mark with interest rate increases, then loosen, rather than let inflation get out of control." The small blessing here is that Mr Poole is not a voting member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee this year.
www.money.cnn.com
Decided to jump in today. I'm not much of a TA but it looks like 1270/1275 wants to hold on the S&P which says this is not a breakdown but rather more range bound trading. The S and the I are taking pretty good hits today though. I only went 20% into the I. I am a little concerned about the dollar rising more, what with all this talk of the Fed going to 5.25 or 5.5. However with the dollar rising significantly over the last 2 days it could easily fall some tomorrow. Just not sure it would last.
Dave
<><
Dave
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teknobucks
Active member
come on bottom baby
Birchtree
Well-known member
Leaping lizards
Today was actually a peaceful affair - in more ways than one. There was no condescension or strident harassment happening - rather quiet.
Tomorrow, hopefully the price of oil rebounds.
I have two stock splits and three takeovers going on - guess I need to start doing some more buying or my outside portfolio will be depleted. As Tekno stated previously the float is decreasing and demand is going to pick up for equities, especially with all the defined contribution plans being adopted. We all must learn the ropes on investing and managing our own retirement money - because the day approaches when it will be necessary. We are not by any means immune to cost savings - but preparation is the key.
Dennis -permabull #2
Today was actually a peaceful affair - in more ways than one. There was no condescension or strident harassment happening - rather quiet.
Tomorrow, hopefully the price of oil rebounds.
I have two stock splits and three takeovers going on - guess I need to start doing some more buying or my outside portfolio will be depleted. As Tekno stated previously the float is decreasing and demand is going to pick up for equities, especially with all the defined contribution plans being adopted. We all must learn the ropes on investing and managing our own retirement money - because the day approaches when it will be necessary. We are not by any means immune to cost savings - but preparation is the key.
Dennis -permabull #2
robo
Well-known member
Treasury: All legal options exhausted to avoid debt limit
Still tapping the G Fund.
http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060307/BUSINESS/603070303/1003/business
If we get a market pullback this month in my opinion the 200 DMA should hold. That's still a pretty good pullback from the highs around mid 1290's. Getting close to the 200 DMA would be around a 5% correction from the highs... Of course we could go lower, but if support holds at the 200DMA I think buyers will come in. If it doesn't hold things could get ugly, 1180's to 1200...
Again, "That's if we get a pull back." We all know how the Market can humble us. You wait for a pullback, and it just keeps going up!!!
TA's I follow:
1 Shorting the Dow
1 Shorting Russell 2000 Small caps and Germany
1 Shorting QQQ's
4 Cash
1 60% long
1 25% long
Contrarian indicator? Maybe! The long's are cautious and are concered about a big sell off. I'm 20% long and added a little more I Fund today. Trying to catch the falling knife... Plenty of cash if she TANKS to buy. Waiting and watching for the new Trend. The big question is it up or down, the Tecnicals are indicating down so the risk reward is HIGH.. Good trading/investing, The trend is your friend!!!! STAY CAUTIOUS MY FRIENDS!!!!
Some comments about the short term indicators:
With the additional downside we saw Tuesday in the broader market, many of our intraday indicators cycled into oversold territory. The most reliable of the bunch, the cumulative TICK, is also the most stretched, as we saw consistently large negative readings throughout the day. In combination with our other measures, that activity pushed our STEM.MR model into its most oversold condition of the past several months. As I noted last week, each of the other times the model has traded outside of its band, the S&P 500 saw a rebound of at least 10 points, usually immediately. If we don't see that this time, then it's a good indication that the tone of the market is changing. We're already seeing a hint of that, as we've seen a couple of severe oversold readings, but no real solid overbought ones - a market that continually becomes oversold is one that is suffering a lot of selling pressure, but so far we've at least been able to rally a bit off of these readings. When that is no longer the case, then that's when the longer-term worries will come to the fore
Still tapping the G Fund.
http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060307/BUSINESS/603070303/1003/business
If we get a market pullback this month in my opinion the 200 DMA should hold. That's still a pretty good pullback from the highs around mid 1290's. Getting close to the 200 DMA would be around a 5% correction from the highs... Of course we could go lower, but if support holds at the 200DMA I think buyers will come in. If it doesn't hold things could get ugly, 1180's to 1200...
Again, "That's if we get a pull back." We all know how the Market can humble us. You wait for a pullback, and it just keeps going up!!!
TA's I follow:
1 Shorting the Dow
1 Shorting Russell 2000 Small caps and Germany
1 Shorting QQQ's
4 Cash
1 60% long
1 25% long
Contrarian indicator? Maybe! The long's are cautious and are concered about a big sell off. I'm 20% long and added a little more I Fund today. Trying to catch the falling knife... Plenty of cash if she TANKS to buy. Waiting and watching for the new Trend. The big question is it up or down, the Tecnicals are indicating down so the risk reward is HIGH.. Good trading/investing, The trend is your friend!!!! STAY CAUTIOUS MY FRIENDS!!!!
Some comments about the short term indicators:
With the additional downside we saw Tuesday in the broader market, many of our intraday indicators cycled into oversold territory. The most reliable of the bunch, the cumulative TICK, is also the most stretched, as we saw consistently large negative readings throughout the day. In combination with our other measures, that activity pushed our STEM.MR model into its most oversold condition of the past several months. As I noted last week, each of the other times the model has traded outside of its band, the S&P 500 saw a rebound of at least 10 points, usually immediately. If we don't see that this time, then it's a good indication that the tone of the market is changing. We're already seeing a hint of that, as we've seen a couple of severe oversold readings, but no real solid overbought ones - a market that continually becomes oversold is one that is suffering a lot of selling pressure, but so far we've at least been able to rally a bit off of these readings. When that is no longer the case, then that's when the longer-term worries will come to the fore
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Rotation
We are finally starting to see some rotation from small-caps to large caps per the "Rev Shark" from another web site. I've only been anticipating this process for a year now. It will take some time but there is motion.
www.realmoney.com
We are finally starting to see some rotation from small-caps to large caps per the "Rev Shark" from another web site. I've only been anticipating this process for a year now. It will take some time but there is motion.
www.realmoney.com
