Market Talk / Mar 5 -11, 2006

[Rod]

I wonder if there is some concern that too much money would be pulled from the G fund, and dilute the ability of the Treasury Dept. to raid TSP and float the Federal Budget? No, I am sure that couldn't be the case. :nuts:

I say we start an email campaign asking all TSP participants to pull everything OUT OF (G) so the GOV can no longer dip into the kitty.:cheesy:

We need to show the GOV who's "in charge".:laugh:

 

[Rod]

Oaktree,

IMHO your best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns - even if you follow certain indicators.

The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating.

It seems a great contrarian indicator for us TSP folks is hearing of and seeing everyone who were already in equities run to (G).

Once that happens, look for the bounce.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 9 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Still in trading range, going down. Bottom support around 1250-1265 [$SPX] or 19 on S-STO, depending on how you look at it. However, market is becoming over sold.
Other Yak...............................Lube stopped sliding.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1272.23, dn -6.24
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.167, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+1.32, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........21.91, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 44.20 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................60.47, up +0.45
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

 

[tsptalk]

Could the market get any closer to our deadline before falling off.

Dave
<><

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SPX&t=1d

I know. These big afternoon moves are making things quite tough on us. Don't they know this is tough enough already.

 

[JOVARN]

So much for catching the bounce. I was comfy in the G fund, I couldn't leave well enough alone , oh well. What was the motivating factor for the drop today. Things were looking pretty good when I left the house at 6am.
I just hate to give back.

 

[Skip]

Well at least the I fund is starting to show some life... Pulling up from the 50% retracement to the 33% line... If it can hold ?
The us stocks are getting killed and pulling back.... they too are at the 33% pullback range from jan 1-Feb 22 I would quess they will go to the 50% line or lower before moving back up.
Our old standby support 1265 is not to far below !! It has provided a spring board a few times..
Waiting for the selloff to stop bleeding...
holding 75% g 25%I
Skip

 

[Oaktree]

Exactly

It seems a great contrarian indicator for us TSP folks is hearing of and seeing everyone who were already in equities run to (G).

Once that happens, look for the bounce.

I hope it happens soon.

 

[tsptalk]

The jobs report came in a little high, but not terribly so. Still it won't help the interest rate situation. It may be another case of this early strength being another invitation to sell. But of course speaking of contrarian indicators...

 

[Cortez]

Keep in mind that Bernanke speaks on Monday. If Ben doesn't give any indication that the rates increases are going to end sooner than later, the markets will begin hitting the bid.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm a little surprised at the the reaction to the jobs report, even though this is typical behavior. A strong report is good for the economy, but not great for one the Fed is trying to slow down (or keep inflation in check, whichever you prefer.)

But the market in general does like a strong report but those rallies don't tend to last more than a day or two. I've shown those statistics many times before in the market comments over the years.

Continue to watch the 1285 area on the S&P 500 for signs of resistance. A sustained move above that would be positive but we have not quite gotten there yet this morning so I didn't see a need to jump into stocks yet.

Have a great day,
Tom

 

[Wheels]

I wish I had sold this strength but I couldn't get to a computer. Especially since, as Tom points out, these "job report" rallies tend to reverse within a day or two. Plus I could've picked up the penny on Monday (assuming it doesn't get paid tonight). Oh well. No sense crying over spilt milk. We'll see how it plays out.

Dave
<><

 

[JOVARN]

HOLDING 40% I and 10S after taking a small loss yesterday.
Have a nice weekend all.
I am flying off to Atlantic City and will try my luck.

 

[CheapShot]

3 Card Poker

Play a little 3 card it pays the best.

 

[Birchtree]

A dead cat bounce?

I wouldn't take that bet - not with all the bear paws around. On the Thursday lows the NYAD line held its' Oct'05 lows for MCO and the EMA (40). The NYUD (NYSE Advance - Decline volume) Index also held above the Oct'05 lows. Both of the NYSE volume and breadth MCSUMs remain above their zero lines. www.stockcharts.com. And Friday was the result of this inherent strength - money flow is still positive.

I've been looking at the move in the DJIA off the third bottom in March'03 from a low of 7524.05. The Dow moved up smartly 1000 points in a week and then experienced a negative 6.2% correction back to 8000 and then never looked back until mid June'03 after which the market experienced a negative 3.6% correction. My point is that cycles are never exact but Jan'06 feels like March'03 with the Feb'06 correction and now here comes the move to higher highs. Dues have been paid over the last two years and I've been wrong more than right - but if this structure is in fact a 3 wave I'm certainly ready for the ride up. That would mean no 4-year cycle low until who knows when - I think it already came and went. Just doing a little dreaming folks.

Dennis -permabull #2

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / Mar. 5 - 11

Will be closing thread, and starting a new one for next week.

Rgds, and be careful!..................

...................Spaf

 

[Rod]

Re: ONE YEAR AGO THIS WEEK: Market Talk/Mar 5 -11, 2006

I thought it would be interesting to look back at the same week, last year for a comparative analysis, and to see how we have matured.

Enjoy!