Market Talk / Mar 5 -11, 2006

[Rod]

Does anyone care to explain WHY the markets have been declining since Friday while the USD has been increasing in value???

 

[Birchtree]

Yes to your question

Mlk-man,

I've already moved some small-cap fund money into my international fund - peeling off a little at a time - no need to be in a hurry. Small-caps are pushing eight year highs with probably more to go - but I see it as a small sacrifice not to be left on the mountain all alone - now don't everyone pile into the C fund either - there isn't that much room available and I prefer the solitude.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 7 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Now don't play in a trading range! Why mommy why?
Other Yak...............................Lube down under 62.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1275.88, dn -2.38
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.126, slight increase.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+2.88, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........46.44, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 47.31 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................61.58, dn -0.83
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

 

[Rod]

Mlk-man,

I've already moved some small-cap fund money into my international fund - peeling off a little at a time - no need to be in a hurry. Small-caps are pushing eight year highs with probably more to go - but I see it as a small sacrifice not to be left on the mountain all alone - now don't everyone pile into the C fund either - there isn't that much room available and I prefer the solitude.

Dennis

I think CSI funds are at decent buys now. I just happened to buy in 2 days early.:cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Tourist verses manufacturer

Rod,

When the dollar is strengthing competition increases for the export manufacturers and the foreign manufacturers have the edge on their products into this country - they sell cheaper. It helps Toyota. It does not help the I fund because of the currency conversion.

I want a weaker dollar because exports are barely 10% of the broad economy, but foreign-derived sales account for more than one-third (40%) of the revenue stream of the S&P 500 companies. I'm not traveling overseas this year so a strong dollar doesn't help my case.

Dennis

 

[Rod]

Does anyone care to explain WHY the markets have been declining since Friday while the USD has been increasing in value???

C'mon "Great Minds"... I'm curious for your answers.

 

[Rod]

Rod,

When the dollar is strengthing competition increases for the export manufacturers and the foreign manufacturers have the edge on their products into this country - they sell cheaper. It helps Toyota. It does not help the I fund because of the currency conversion.

I want a weaker dollar because exports are barely 10% of the broad economy, but foreign-derived sales account for more than one-third (40%) of the revenue stream of the S&P 500 companies. I'm not traveling overseas this year so a strong dollar doesn't help my case.

Dennis

Thanx Dennis.

 

[Rod]

Hey Folks,

I created a ROTH TSP thread here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=39328#post39328

So we can specifically discuss that issue without detracting from this week's market.

God Bless

 

[Spaf]

Humm!

I know that we are in a trading range. However, the rsi is below 50 and oil is under 62. Time to dust off a IFT, just to have handy.......:blink: ......Spaf

 

[Wheels]

Well I've been complaining about about being a day late several times this past month but it looks like I may have pulled the trigger a day early this time. Japan and China are both going down hard.

Dave
<><

 

[Rod]

Well I've been complaining about about being a day late several times this past month but it looks like I may have pulled the trigger a day early this time. Japan and China are both going down hard.

Dave
<><

I'm with you there. I definitely (and tend to do so) pulled the trigger early.

Perhaps I need to begin looking at myself as my contrarian indicator- when I want to buy in, just wait at least 1 more day.:embarrest:

 

[Spaf]

Chasing the bear!

It's not advisable to chase range bound stocks. However, in TSP the only other option is the G-fund. Remember what we did in 2004 chasing the ups and downs. It's not easy with a 1-2 day transfer delay.
If I decide to chase the bear, follow at risk.......Rgds.....:blink: ......Spaf

 

[Fivetears]

An idea.

Does anyone care to explain WHY the markets have been declining since Friday while the USD has been increasing in value???

In my amateur opinion... I think the seemingly overnight rise in the USD centers on most of the countries driving markets tied to the I-Fund, raising their interest rates (within a day or two of each other) to control their own inflation problems. Raising interest rates curbs credit buying power. Conversely, the USD value increased.

Dennis' statement, "...foreign-derived sales account for more than one-third (40%) of the revenue stream of the S&P 500 companies" certainly explains the resulting reason behind the recent drop in our American markets.

I hope I didn't misunderstand / misuse Dennis' comment, as I hold his financial remarks and opinions in very high regard. He really knows his stuff and his posts are always great and informative reads. Hopefully, I can educate myself through this forum, the web and library to understand them better soon, Rod.

 

[Rod]

In my amateur opinion... I think the seemingly overnight rise in the USD centers on most of the countries driving markets tied to the I-Fund, raising their interest rates (within a day or two of each other) to control their own inflation problems. Raising interest rates curbs credit buying power. Conversely, the USD value increased.

Dennis' statement, "...foreign-derived sales account for more than one-third (40%) of the revenue stream of the S&P 500 companies" certainly explains the resulting reason behind the recent drop in our American markets.

I hope I didn't misunderstand / misuse Dennis' comment, as I hold his financial remarks and opinions in very high regard. He really knows his stuff and his posts are always great and informative reads, Rod.

Thank you for the input. It's making more sense.

 

[learning]

I would like to see a flat day or a down day. If I see this it appears it may be a good time to buy the S fund. (I will look at the market at 1030. I made sure to be near a computer at that time.) It took too big of a hit in comparison to the other markets. The I fund may also be nice. However, I like the S fund as it is a U.S. market and the other U.S. markets did not take near the hit. This relates to what we can invest in.

 

[JOVARN]

50 S 50% G.
I believe the market is going to tank but I am playing the bounce. Dont tell my wife

 

[tsptalk]

It has been really difficult the past several days to make short term moves because the market is moving so quickly. The expected bounce could start and be over before the day is done. That's the way it's been going lately. Tough for TSP'ers.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 8 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Mixed! Seems to be a slight pause to lower levels in the trading range.
Other Yak...............................Lube supplies up. Futures at a 3 week low.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1278.47, up +2.59
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.206, jump up..?.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+2.31, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........33.54, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 49.13 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................60.02, dn -1.56
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

 

[dell]

I Am Willing to Make You All Rich

I am prepared to offer each of you a GUARANTEED way to untold wealth concerning the growth of your TSP: Just send me $10.00; yes, folks - you heard right. For just $10.00 I will tell you which fund I am preparing to move my money into. As soon as the fund managers and market makers see that it's me, the fund is GUARANTEED to go down.

Dell

 

[Birchtree]

This could be lift off - you nonbelievers

The Nikkei currently is up 351 and probably moving higher. Doesn't look like anything far reaching on the downside at this juncture. The 3 to 1 downside on Tuesday seemed climatic. During the Oct'05 lows the C fund was nesting at $12.73 - those days are long gone. Bar the door Katie - the bull remains in control. I really don't think this is any kind of a sucker rally either - to me it's the real deal. This is not what we would be seeing moving into the nesting of the 4 year bottom. The 4-year cycle bottom will more than likely take place at higher price levels than we are at the current time. However, it should be noted that March for the last three years has been troublesome - it took me down pretty hard last year - reintroduced me to the virtues of pain. But so far the character of this market IMHO has been impressive - this correction will help build another price structure for new all-time highs real soon. What a great country!!!