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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Market Talk / Jan. 1 - 7
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
ya got guts, kid.
Fivetears said:
Chasing the dream. Good luck. I don't have the gusto to go 100% I the day after a 3%+ gain and a 1% gain.
It would be chasing rainbows for me.
I'm currently 40% I, 30% C, 30% S, and am starting to think about breaking off the complete relance on stocks and drifting perhaps 30% into G for safekeeping and taking a breath.
Two days into the new year and I've got a quarter of my yearly goal (I am counting on 12% per year return) already.
Yep = you got guts chasing rainbows. Best of luck.
The_Technician
Active member
Dollar jumping
Looks like we're getting to a point of a drop in the Euro..... possibly after friday.....I would post the picture but I seem to not be able to attach it.....
I think the "I" is going to climb up to Friday; at least that's my bet. It will correct itself sometime soon; that's a given. My investment strategy has been to settle on a 1% minimum combined gain in my account balance per month from the C, S, F, & or I... then retreat to the G. Chasing rainbows: I suppose it could be. I went 14.64% for 2005, and 18.1% for 2004while doing it. It works for me. I should do tremendously better this year with the added benefit of see how others (seeking the same) are looking at things. Wish I knew about this MB forum back then. If I loose a little... it won't be the first time, and certainly not the last.James48843 said:
Good luck to all.
The_Technician
Active member
Yearly gains...
Great gains FT.....fair system.....personally until I can get all the gains I can.... I won't be happy......I missed out on an easy 20-40%, but I remind you, the only way the market makes money is by deceit when things aren't doing well economic wise.....so deceit you have to dissect....and then you make way....
Keep up picking away and when you start showing us how, we'll all appreciate it....GGreg
Guest
I agree with this, but I would put today's gain at 15 cent to $18.32.Wheels said:
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 03, 2006
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes.
Kingdom Yak.
Market Yak............ Advances continue in jagged trading, celebrating emotion of sentiment that Cartel campaign may be ending.
Other Yak............. Rule 1. Don't buy high!
Doodles, and Tea Leaves.
Doodles:
S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1273.46, up +4.66
Money flow............ -0.138, up.
Stops................... Alert: 1261, Trailing: 1249.
Averages............... +4.42, up.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 60.6 [30]
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 63.42, up +0.28
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.
Tea leaves:............ Yellow.
Fortunes.
Position.................. 100GIt seems not only careless but several of us have wondered if it is even legal. However it is what it is. The TSP website clearly explains that from time to time they will alter the I fund price to discourage "day trading". I believe they decided to alter it to the upside because the dollar continued to fall after yesterday's EAFE value had been determined but that part is just speculation by me.
Dave
<><
TiCKed
Member
I see what you're saying.....and it triggered a memory.
Here's a quote from a Vanguard international fund I hold:
"When reliable market quotations are not readily available, securities are priced at their fair value, which is the price a security’s owner might reasonably expect to receive upon its sale. A fund also may use fair-value pricing if the value of a security it holds has been materially affected by events occurring before the fund’s pricing time but after the close of the primary markets or exchanges on which the security is traded. This most commonly occurs with foreign securities, which may trade on foreign exchanges that close many hours before the fund’s pricing time."
So, as for the legality, it appears that the same concept is used throughout the industry...at least by those companies who try to prevent market timing.
Thanks for the lesson!
TiCKed
Member
In the "Frequently Asked Questions" section, (which used to be easy to find...but I had to search for), it states:
________________________
6. Why doesn't the change in the I Fund share price always correspond to the EAFE Index which it tracks?
Participants have asked why, on some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change reported for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m., eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.
_____________________________________________________
So, they aren't necessarily saying they are trying to prevent market timing. Just that they are trying to prevent "easy money" by watching the currency values, and jumping in and out of the I to take advantage.
As noted above, I think this is standard procedure in the mutual fund business.
Tom"Put your climbin' gear on folks; looks like were going up. 100% I c.o.b. Today"
We have spoke about the I fund before and prospect for high returns once the Dollar started to drop. When to buy was the question asked as many did not want to buy at the current I fund high's.
Some believe that the dollar has started its decent if so, there should be steady gains for the I fund.
Interesting article below.
AP
U.S. Dollar Off Against Major Currencies
Wednesday January 4, 4:11 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell against other major currencies Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve minutes released Tuesday suggested to investors that interest-rate increases are nearing an end.
Halting interest-rate hikes would make the dollar less attractive to investors, who had flocked to the U.S. currency in 2005 as the Fed gradually raised interest rates to stave off inflation. In 2005, the euro fell 12.7 percent against the dollar; the British pound dropped 10.6 percent versus the dollar; and the dollar gained 15 percent versus the yen.
"Now, you've got investors who believe they want to have a core short-dollar position in place," said Robert Sinche, head of currency strategy at Bank of America.
Still, analysts said, the dollar's drop was abrupt given the vagueness of the Fed's intentions, which will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data.
"The data that will generate big interest will be the employment data on Friday," said Sinche, who noted the analyst consensus is that employment grew by over 200,000 in December, as it did in November. If that strong data comes through, "it might give some pause to those chasing the dollar lower," he said.
Jackson said the dollar's fall Tuesday and Wednesday was "slightly overdone" and said he is expecting a retracement Thursday, but added that if the euro breaks through near-term resistance at $1.2150, it could lead to more dollar-selling.
What to do now decisions decisions decisions!!
I will continue to hold 40% I. Many may think thats crazyGGreg
Guest
Wheels said:
My estimate was closer than yours. The I-fund closed at $ 18.38 up 21 cents or 1.16%.
Soldat
Member
Underestimating the market led me into G and F by COB Dec 29. Although this did not cause me any "loss", I have missed this surge. I strongly believe that this false "show of strength" is just that; false. Though I hope that the market continues up, and the dollar regains the ground on which it stands, I don't see this trend continuing. I expect heavy losses until the 12th or 13th of this month. I believe that I will continue to hold 50G 50F for a few months, I dont trust the data out there. That is all,
RobStocks Rally Again As Breakouts Emerge
Just a litle note for the bears... Look out...
also the metals look like they are worth watching as China's demand is driving prices up...
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 1/4/2006
More broad-based gains and a fresh batch of breakouts Wednesday made it two for two on strong trading days in 2006.
The Nasdaq gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 0.4%, the Dow industrials 0.3%. Smaller stocks also fared well, with the S&P MidCap 400 adding 0.7% and the S&P SmallCap 600 0.6%.
Volume started higher than Tuesday's level before tailing off late in the day. The release of the Fed minutes Tuesday afternoon reignited speculation that the Fed's interest-rate hikes may be ending soon, unleashing a torrent of late-day buying.
No such news popped up Wednesday, hence the lighter trade. Volume did close above average across the board.
More encouraging was the session's spate of breakouts. Southern Copper (PCU) led a big rally by metal stocks. The southern Peru-focused copper miner surged 5.23 to 73.49 on twice its normal trade. The stock vaulted to an all-time high after four weeks of tight, slightly declining action.
Titanium producers were also hot. RTI International Metals (RTI) broke out of a 13-week base, gaining 5% in brisk turnover. Allegheny Technologies (ATI) and Titanium Metals (TIE) also took flight. The Steel-Specialty Alloys group, which encompasses producers of steel, titanium and other materials, was IBD's top performing industry Wednesday.
Transports and related industries also flourished, as the Dow transportation index jumped 1.1%. Diesel and natural gas engine maker Cummins (CMI) burst out of a 15-week base, leaping 5% on triple its usual trade.
Though basic industrial groups led, plenty of top-rated growth stocks rallied hard.
The medical sector nabbed gains from multiple sources.
Pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts (ESRX) has been a market leader for nearly a year since its powerful breakout in March. On Wednesday, group peer HealthExtras (HLEX) flexed its muscle.
The firm announced a major contract with a Blue Cross Blue Shield health plan provider to offer pharmacy benefit management services to 1.3 million members, starting in July. After a big move Tuesday, HealthExtras added 3.28 to 30.51 Wednesday. It's up 22% this week.
Meanwhile, behavioral health care services firm Psychiatric Solutions broke out of a seven-week, late-stage base to an all-time high. Per-Se Technologies, (PSTI) which provides billing and administrative services to physician groups and hospitals, gapped up off its 50-day moving average.
Even some leaders from past rallies have made impressive comebacks. BMC Software, (BMC) which plunged during the bear market of 2000 to 2002 after a huge run in the late 1990s, motored 10% in brisk volume, clearing a long bottoming base.
All told, the IBD 100 advanced 1.1%, outpacing the major indexes and showing the strength of leading stocks.
Market Timing; yes. You don't have any choice but to time the TSP markets, with a 24 - 48 hr lag time in fund transfers. Isn't that what this forum is all about? I hope we aren't just haggling over pennies here regarding "Fair Valuation" in the I Fund. Buy Low / Sell High doesn't discourage me a bit in the I or any other Fund. Just my 2 cents. Until TSP puts a limit on number of transfers... fire at will. Texas Hold'em. ALL IN "I". Hook'em 'Horns!TiCKed said:Similar threads
