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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Market Talk / Jan. 1 - 7
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
vectorman
Active member
Below statement Tom usually puts out-
Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don't like surprises because they create uncertainty.
Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P 500 was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.
Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P 500 showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.
The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P 500 and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.Last edited:Anyone interested in the odds or curious about the Positive / Negative return statistics for the G, F, C, S, & I Funds for the month of January... They are as follows:
G Fund: 18 of 18 years POSITIVE
F Fund: 14 of 18 years POSITIVE
C Fund: 11 of 18 years POSITIVE
S Fund: 02 of 5 years POSITIVE
I Fund: 01 of 5 years POSITIVE1234hrs CST 6 Jan
Employers added 108,000 jobs last month; about half the 200,000 increase forecast by economists and well behind November's 305,000 gain.Brak said:
This signals a slowing economy and is another reason analysts believe the Fed will soon halt its string of interest rate hikes.
There was also a 0.3 percent jump in hourly wages. This renews worries about inflation if the pattern continues.
I think the Friday (todays) gains will hold. Heading into the three day weekend next week may incourage a little profit taking. You really need to keep your eyes on the headlines, and read up on Senior Member input, to make an educated decision of your own
1711hrs CST 6 Jan
Made a NICE 'ALL IN" call for a timed Thurday - Friday hand of "Texas Hold'em" in the "I" Fund. Sweet chunk of change. Sure wish I could have been "all in" for the Monday - Tuesday hand though. There will be another day or two for certain before February. I'm sure we'll find it.
Thanks tsptalk.com Board & Members
I Like it
My Goal - find & snag up 2% a month for 2006.
teknobucks
Active member
greenspan rally...WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
party will end with ben...jmho
jan18th-apr or so i'll be in the G.
good luck 2 all
tekno
James48843
Well-known member
Time to take profits
I've been in 30% C, 30% S, 40% I since before Christmas.
Nice moves up this week in all three.
I am going to move a little out for the close Monday- and go 30% G fund, 20% C, 20% S, 30% I as of the close of business Monday.
I see it too much to quick NOT to have a small pullback in the next couple days, if not later in the week next week- so I am going to position a little of the gain into G and enjoy it while I can.
I usually am mostly in stocks looking for gains. Last year I did 12.51%, and this year am looking to improve.
The comment someone made the other day about bailing when they got a solid 1% each month is interesting advice. I've never thought in terms of a strategy like that, but it makes for some interesting possibilites. I'm up a solid 4% already this month. Good return for a few days work.
So I'm taking a little off the table and enjoying!
Good luck!Stock Market Update
Stock Market Update - 2006/01/06 16:20:01
4:34p ET January 6, 2006 (Briefing.com)
Closing the week with an average 3.2% gain, the equity market's major averages continued 2006's streak today. A mixed interpretation of the December employment report triggered some intra-day melee, but buyers ran back post-lunch and carried the market to a fourth straight day of advances. Each of the ten economic sectors finished on positive ground. A 2.3% surge in the price of crude futures was the Energy sector's gain, with which it closed the week 6% higher. While the energy price action drove that sector, it did little to dampen buying across the broader market. Speaking of commodities, gold futures rose to the highest closing price in 25 years, and helped incite surges across the Materials sector (+1.2%). It was Technology that retained the spotlight today, though; on account of still-surging semiconductors, soaring communication equipment issues, and an altogether general extension of bullishness across the board, Tech rose a weighty 1.4% and continued the 2006 Tech theme. The SOXX index jumped 2% -- up 8% on the week -- and the Nasdaq hit a four and a half year high. Some upbeat corporate news helped to extend the sector's recent rally. Goldman Sachs upped its price target and profit estimates on Google (GOOG 465.15 +13.91) and Yahoo (YHOO 43.20 +1.67) shares, and The Wall Street Journal ran an article discussing those companies' partnership with Briefing.com recommended holding Motorola (MOT 24.47 +0.95) - an example of their efforts to reach consumers beyond the traditional PC. Signifying strong end-market demand, Samsung asserted that it will raise DRAM contract prices by 10%. Garnering particular attention was IBM's (IBM 84.95 +2.45) announcement that it plans to freeze its $48 billion pension plan in 2008. Hardware rallied, and that stock led the Dow, which also hit a four and a half year high today. A lone sore spot was Microsoft (MSFT 26.91 -0.08), which declined following an analyst downgrade. With respect to the jobs data, investors took somewhat of a mixed interpretation. For a market focused upon the interest rate environment, a lower than expected rise in December non-farm payrolls supported the argument that the Fed may end its current monetary tightening cycle sooner than later. Futures trade jumped, and the indices ran upon the market's launch. However, the consideration of November's upside revision, which essentially puts today's data in-line with what had been expected, served as a tempering factor. A greater than expected uptick in hourly earnings was an additional offsetting element; although the rise was unalarming, that caveat nonetheless fanned inflation concerns. As a result, the Treasury market spent another session submerged and bond traders further flattened the yield curve. The rate-sensitive Financial sector took a bearish cue, but banks reversed course and pushed the influential sector to a supportive 0.5% gain. Aside from the four and a half year highs hit by the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq this week, the NYSE Composite, S&P Financial, Oil Services, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000 also touched historic highs.
vectorman
Active member
Nice return , just think in my being up 4% already, if you had to run to just the G for the year, you would probably end the year with more than 9%, without any risk.
RevShark talked about buyers starting to become euphoric, it will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow in some of the major newspapers. Wall street wants the retail investors fired up now.Last edited by a moderator:
Birchtree
Well-known member
New Cash Cows: Biggest Stocks
Thanks for that update Skip - it's very useful information
From TWSJ:
Stock dividends are growing so much that even bond investors are taking notice as they hunt for income. Record corporate dividend payouts-along with lowered federal taxes on those checks and paltry bond yields - are making dozens of big company stocks better cash cows than bonds after federal taxes. More than 60 stocks in the S&P 500 index, have higher after tax dividend yield than the 10-year Treasury.
And with many big, dividend-paying companies sitting on mountains of cash and trading at moderate multiples of their per-share earnings, there is reason to expect that group of S&P 500 companies to grow in number. Investors who long focused on bonds start eyeing and buying stocks that offer the same, or better, yield with the opportunity for capital appreciation as well.
A big part of stocks' new allure for bond investors is the lower tax rate on that dividend income. Interest paid by Treasurys is taxed federally at as high as the top rate of 35%, but taxes on most types of corporate dividends were lowered to 15% in 2003 and are scheduled to stay at that tax rate through 2008.
At the same time, it is reasonable to expect dividend checks to keep growing. Amid a flat market for stocks last year, the companies in the S&P 500 paid out a record $202 billion in dividends. Nearly 300 companies in the index increased their dividends, while only nine cut them. Dividends are definitely on the way back and while they are on the rise, they have room to grow. The average dividend payer in the index is paying out about a third of its profits in dividends - its payout ratio - down from its more than 50% historical average.
What asset class has been underperforming for the past three years? Shares of big, quality companies, they've been underperforming and keep paying big yields. They're overdue to outperform the markets and should over the next five years. Cash represented more than 7% of the market value of the nonfinancial companies in the S&P 500 at the start of this year, just short of a record. Another reason I'm still 100% C fund.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Closing Thread
Jan. 1 - 7 is gone, and will be posting a new thread for Market Talk!
Comments were great! Hope folks made some $
Will lock the thread temporarily so folks don't get confused with the dates of the thread.
New thread will be Market Talk Jan. 8 - 14.
See U there! Rgds, and be careful!Spaf
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