Market Talk / Jan. 1 - 7

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Spaf

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP​

Sunday-Weekly​

Early Edition
Jan. 01, 2006​

Fortuneteller.gif

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes.


Kingdom Yak.

Market Yak......Vestors loosing faith in market; worries about inverted treasury yield curve, and rise in lube prices.

Position Yak....Signals continue to decline with mixed fundamentals. Holding safe for capital preservation.

Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:

S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............... 1248.29, declining.
Money flow............ -0.191, dn.
Stops..................... Alert: 1261 [broken], Trailing: 1249 [broken].
Chart..................... 20dMA, 50dMA, MACD, RSI.

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at................ 61.04, up +2.61 for the week
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Tea leaves:............. Red.

Fortunes.

Position.................. 100G

TSP Relative Strength Funds: S (C 2nd choise). I fund in correction mode. G for safety.
 
imported post

Looking to buy 10% S&P500 @ or ~ 1220
20% EFA @ or ~ 57.5
Not buying DWCPF.
Day Trading 20% between I, C, G.
Position Trading 80% between G, F.

January-Red
Febuary-Yellow
March-Green

That is all.
 
Update

Updated December and January Market Talk threads to show a date!
 
Inversions

Well, I did pretty good in 05- beat the "balanced" by quite a bit. But there was really nothing major happening with the market in 05.

I am concerned right now, however, with interest rates. I saw today that the 3 year fed funds are yielding less than the 2 year notes- a classic "inversion" in interest rates. That does not bode well for the future. And everything from the 30 day rate up to the 10 year note has narrowed its spread considerably.

I'm still 60% I fund, 30 S, 30 C, and avoiding the F like the plague.

What do you think- will the interest rate inversion convert into a falling market and a recession in 06?
 
Ok, I did fair. However, not great. I dd not keep complete track of my wins to losses. I intend to this year.

I know there is suppose to be an area where people post where they are at and what they are doing and how they did. Where do you go to see this? I am not a good person to watch. However, there are several people that are good enough.
 
I seemed to bring in over 9% last year myself........even though I didn't post my last month or two moves .... not too shabby for waiting until the last of the year to gain some.....Nov-Dec was kind to me even though the last move in late December (27th) seem to take some off my table.....

I'm looking forward to making more moves and timely if possible....but I'm cautious in the early part of the year.....then the last part should be more fruitful....

Birch, I don't doubt that the I fund will do well, but the question is when....I'll wage my bets it will be after the Foreign countries get their interest rates up......but we will see if the dollar also comes up from the lows of late.....
 
Market breaks down...

Well....it's breaking down so far....:( I meant to put in that its setting some recent lows.....and going to challenge low of Dec.....:mad:
 
Last edited:
Rolling over

I'm watching for NASDAQ trading below 2206 and for S&P trading below 1241 at close this afternoon (their respective 50DMAs). I've been 60C and 40S since November but am definitely on the exit trigger as this "consolidation" as CNBC would have it is rolling over and breaking the lows of the trading range since the November rally.
 
I'm looking for anything under 1246 on the S&P and 539 on the Wilshire 4500....if these are broken, I believe we're going down ...:o
 
What is making the market even more disconcerting is the fact that the bottom of the consolidation trading range and the 50 DMA are within a few points on most indices. Bad Karma. Risk of strong downside move clearly outweighs any short term upside potential.
 
And don't forget how high they have been.....the funds have been high and are due .....

Add all the poor basic economics and you get slow growth....or none at all....for the future....so why stay in when everyone knows this.....buy 2 year notes and sit it out....:)
 
Glad I stayed mostly invested. I'll ride it out for this week and then take up a defensive position and await the pullback.
 
very nice volume today - and volume increased after fomc minutes released despite climbing prices... maybe we're in for a few good days as folks with $ still on the sidelines look to be 1.5% behind the pace after day one of the year, maybe 3%!!! for i fund. There may well be some self-imposed pressure on some institutional $$ to come back in soon and not risk falling further behind - and that may serve to fill in any dips that might otherwise appear over the next few days......
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition ​

Jan. 03, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes.

Kingdom Yak.

Market Yak......Vestors celebrate! Cartel may stop payouts to Horseman Rats.

Other Yak.......Lube rises above $63, an increase of 3.4%

Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:

S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............. 1268.80, up +20.51
Money flow.......... -0.228, dn.
Stops.................. Alert: 1261, Trailing: 1249.
Averages............. +3.66, up.
Overbought/sold.... [70] 58.1 [30]

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............. 63.14, up +2.10
Markers:.............. <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Tea leaves:..................... No tea?

Fortunes.

Position........................... 100G
 
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