Malyla's Account Talk

[malyla]

Well, I'm back for a day. I guess I should be happy to be so busy. No time to get into trouble

I'm still hoping that the top of the right (are we looking at the front or back of the head) shoulder is at around 1300. All those B&H'ers need some gains to lock in before this market drops through the floor

The news channels are starting to realize that this mortgage/credit crisis is a long term (1-2 years) problem. I have heard MSNBC and NPR talking about how no financial CEO knows how bad their losses will be and that it will be many months before they start to get a handle on it. NPR had a story about how if everyone that owed more than their home was worth just walked away, the default would be greater than all the financial worth of the holders of those mortgages. Some really sobering news indeed.

Hold on tight and keep your hands and arms inside at all times. It's going to be scary for awhile.:blink:

 

[Davehop21]

I am new to this so I have a question for comment. What if you took a loan from TSP and investing in say a monthly dividend payer for the next 18-24 months. Is that worth considering or just let it ride in the G fund. I am looking at some Canroys that are paying above 15% return with a monthly divy and just wonder if that would be worth the loan???


Thanks, Dave

 

[Steadygain]

I am new to this so I have a question for comment. What if you took a loan from TSP and investing in say a monthly dividend payer for the next 18-24 months. Is that worth considering or just let it ride in the G fund. I am looking at some Canroys that are paying above 15% return with a monthly divy and just wonder if that would be worth the loan???


Thanks, Dave

Dave,
Your best bet is to leave your TSP fully in play - even during what appears to be the long drawn out difficult times. Letting it ride in G guarantees a consistent gain and accumulated stockpiles over the years - that compound on a regular basis. Also you have an instant 5% Match on a bi-weekly basis.

Think of your TSP strictly as a retirement investment - and you'll be way better off in the long run.

 

[Davehop21]

Thanks for your response. I am just curious though that since all funds are tanking and look like they may for a good while then why not borrow at 3.75 return and find something that could do better than the 5% in G. You will pay back the loan and continue to contribute to get the matching funds so all you are doing is taking a cheap loan and looking for better than 5% return.

Thanks, Dave

 

[luv2read]

Thanks for your response. I am just curious though that since all funds are tanking and look like they may for a good while then why not borrow at 3.75 return and find something that could do better than the 5% in G. You will pay back the loan and continue to contribute to get the matching funds so all you are doing is taking a cheap loan and looking for better than 5% return.

Thanks, Dave

There are several experienced investors on the MB who have done exactly that. Check Show-Me's thread and the "TSP Strategies" Forum threads. Detailed explanations of borrowing TSP and opening Roth and/or trading accounts with the funds - and beating TSP.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks for your response. I am just curious though that since all funds are tanking and look like they may for a good while then why not borrow at 3.75 return and find something that could do better than the 5% in G. You will pay back the loan and continue to contribute to get the matching funds so all you are doing is taking a cheap loan and looking for better than 5% return.

Thanks, Dave

Dave - I'd say the odds are YOU are one of the many that will wind up with way more than me. Sounds like you have an uncanny ability to think things through and make some very solid decisions. So in our brief encounter I would tell you - what I tell most - go with your heart and you'll probably make your best decision.

For me - the TSP is more of a background - long running investment - that I've helped to sky rocket over the past 5 years and now am having to ride the rougher times. I do wish we had another Fund that included Hong Kong, Pacific/Asian Markets - which would give us far greater options for which this past year would be one of great celebration.

Anyway - GL - and welcome on Board. Sounds like we could learn a lot from you - so don't be shy.

 

[malyla]

Still following my Bull/Bear market position plan. In F for now. Waiting for 2011 and wondering what the CIA would do with the software knowledge predicting the business cycle. <shrug>

 

[malyla]

I'm still hoping that the top of the right (are we looking at the front or back of the head) shoulder is at around 1300. All those B&H'ers need some gains to lock in before this market drops through the floor

The news channels are starting to realize that this mortgage/credit crisis is a long term (1-2 years) problem. I have heard MSNBC and NPR talking about how no financial CEO knows how bad their losses will be and that it will be many months before they start to get a handle on it. NPR had a story about how if everyone that owed more than their home was worth just walked away, the default would be greater than all the financial worth of the holders of those mortgages. Some really sobering news indeed.

Hold on tight and keep your hands and arms inside at all times. It's going to be scary for awhile.:blink:

There may be a bear rally next week, but after that I would expect more bad news. I am considering buying into a rally, but the risk is huge. Maybe I will just continue to put my bi-weekly contribution into stocks and leave my nest egg in F. Decisions, decisions.... It's a long time to 2010/2011

 

[malyla]

I'm thinking of buying seasonality and going into stocks for the 4th quarter. It deviates from the strategy of staying in safety during a bear market, but maybe this year the 4th quarter will do well. Decisions....

 

[nnuut]

This year is different, be careful.:worried:

 

[malyla]

This year is different, be careful.:worried:

NNutt,

I am worried, but the election year gives me a double confirmation on an up market. Repubs have no chance unless the economy does well in the next 30 days. Wall street is almost all repubs so it looks good for the next month at least. Logical?????

:cheesy: Malyla

 

[nnuut]

NNutt,

I am worried, but the election year gives me a double confirmation on an up market. Repubs have no chance unless the economy does well in the next 30 days. Wall street is almost all repubs so it looks good for the next month at least. Logical?????

:cheesy: Malyla

Hope you're right Malyla, does make sense though. Hopefully we bounce tomorrow and Monday after the House vote.

 

[malyla]

Hope you're right Malyla, does make sense though. Hopefully we bounce tomorrow and Monday after the House vote.

Ummmm.....

No bounce on the bailout passing. Why??? The phrase 'News was priced in' does not make sense. The bailout was suppose to fix the banks credit crunch which is very positive for the market. IMO, I think investors knew that the bailout was a smoke screen and they are trading as they would bailout or no bailout. The market is continuing it's correction. Still F and waiting for an entry point to get some seasonal gains. <crossing fingers>That this isn't a 1929 crash with a 1930-1932 slow drain of anyone who invests because the market is at a bottom. Selling a rally and waiting for proof that the bear is dead(2011).

GL

 

[malyla]

I think 880 may hold, but I have changed my mind about buying here. After reading this http://generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.i.djia I decided to stick with my plan of waiting for 2011 to show a recovery. I do reserve my right to change my mind and try to catch a bear rally or two though.

GL everyone. Next week should be fun.

 

[McDuck]

Do you(or your method) have a listing on the Tracker page? You are in the F-fund right?

 

[Steadygain]

I decided to stick with my plan of waiting for 2011 to show a recovery. I do reserve my right to change my mind and try to catch a bear rally or two though.

GL everyone. Next week should be fun.

Spoken like a true woman and how honored we are to have you.

In retrospect I wish I'd fled to safety and remained there a good while back; but in time I'll find the right moment.

I really admire your thinking Malyla - the plan of waiting for 2011 - or whenever all this mess is honestly behind us and not watching the Markets moment by moment waiting and waiting.....

The longer you wait on a daily basis, the more exciting it gets when the Markets go up 4 to 8% and you want so much to believe...only to get disappointed as time drags on...

If you do catch an occasional little rally - I'll be thilled for you.

Well thanks for the session; I feel a lot better. Will leave the money on your desk.

 

[malyla]

Do you(or your method) have a listing on the Tracker page? You are in the F-fund right?

Yes, I'm in F right now. If I follow this cycle B&H method, I will be in F until mid 2011 (assuming other indicators show a bear about to hibernate). Seems futile to be in the tracker with such a long term position. You could just follow the F fund YTD to see how this method is doing. I will periodically update the spreadsheet to show how B&Hers are fairing against this cycle B&H position trade.

I am DCAing with contributions which keeps me watching the market. The 600+ shares I have in stocks have all decreased in value since the biweekly accumulation of the shares. Maybe these will go positive in a year or two after the bottom hits, but right now, I'm throwing good money into a bad market, but maybe within 1-2 years these will bear fruit.

G.L.
Malyla

Bloomberg TV has a cheerleader on TV right now. "We are near a bottom - Momentum low is in." Harrah!:notrust:

 

[fabijo]

Bloomberg TV has a cheerleader on TV right now. "We are near a bottom - Momentum low is in."

Great. That just means we're a long ways off.

 

[malyla]

Spoken like a true woman and how honored we are to have you.

In retrospect I wish I'd fled to safety and remained there a good while back; but in time I'll find the right moment.

I really admire your thinking Malyla - the plan of waiting for 2011 - or whenever all this mess is honestly behind us and not watching the Markets moment by moment waiting and waiting.....

The longer you wait on a daily basis, the more exciting it gets when the Markets go up 4 to 8% and you want so much to believe...only to get disappointed as time drags on...

If you do catch an occasional little rally - I'll be thilled for you.

Well thanks for the session; I feel a lot better. Will leave the money on your desk.

Why thankyou Steadygain. You are a prince. And this session was on me. I'm just glad you left feeling better than when you came over

I almost went in two Fridays ago and I would have had a 10% up day the next Monday but I'm not sure I would have got out before the subsequent downturn. It's just too volatile and I would be looking for a 3 month rally for my health. So waiting for some indicator of a longer term rally before I will think about braving this market. The average is trying to adjust and unless the market can find another bubble to replace the housing bubble, we are going below the average for awhile.

After reading some of the comments in the MB and on some blogs about where Greenspan went wrong, I have come up with a theory (actually I may have read this somewhere here first, but it took awhile for me to process it). The dotcom bubble should have crashed the market much more than it did. Greenspan lowing the FED rate to 1% forstalled this by causing another bubble to form - the housing bubble. This has burst and I'm not sure that the FED can forstall the deflation of the market to below the average this time. Life was good from 2003-2007. This was borrowed (literally) time for the market. We will pay for this bubble extension in the next 2-4 years. IMHO.

G.L.
Malyla

 

[malyla]

Moving this post to my tread so I can reference it easily.


My analysis short cuts the losses in a bear market. I guess this makes me a long term position trader. The spreadsheet showing the returns of B&Hers and other investment strategies is here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.p...&postcount=112

Buy and holders don't loss anything but time. If it takes 5 years to get back to the share price of Dec 2007, then you have only lost that 5 years of growth, three of which were probably zero growth, with the last two providing a rocket up to Dec 2007 prices. This is your best case scenario. The depression took 24 years to get back to the share price from the high in Sept 1929. This two links (posted by others on the MB somewhere) will show this:

http://generationaldynamics.com/cgi-...=ww2010.i.djia

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/20...DT_GRFK_A.html

I would love to have the time to leave it and forget it, but I don't, so I have a method that uses the business cycle to position my retirement funds to maximize the returns in the shortest time. I don't have the time or IFTs to trade each month, so I feel good about this. When the Bear market is over (using indicators to confirm), I will move into stocks. Until then - shhhhh- I'm sleeping. Hoping to retire on time!

Good Luck.
Malyla