Malyla's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Malyla, Thanks for the response below.

The unexplained difference after 2003 might be best answered
by the TSP staff. I figure they would be scratching their heads
until they delegate the answer above. With persistance, maybe
you can ultimately find the answer you strive for.

 

[malyla]

We recently broke the 26 year trend line - that means the future is uncharted. We all take are chances. Sorry to realize you are also puerile but you are not alone. Snort.

dictionary.com
pu·er·ile

/ˈpyu

ər

ɪl, -əˌraɪl, ˈpyʊər

ɪl, -aɪl/
–adjective 1.of or pertaining to a child or to childhood. 2.childishly foolish; immature or trivial: a puerile piece of writing.

You are definately projecting. Have your fun while you can. Life will be very interesting for a long while.

 

[Birchtree]

This board appreciates all kinds of opinions and I enjoy yours - as long as you don't fade. Hope you become a permanent member and continue to share your thoughts. That's as nice as I can be. Snort.

 

[DakotaKid]

Enjoyed it! Thanks

Here is a must see video. It's a Joss Whedon production and very funny. It's three parts and it will not be available after July 20th.

Enjoy.

http://www.drhorrible.com/

 

[malyla]

Back from a long weekend. Getting ready for an interesting week in the market. I am hoping for more of a bounce before the downtrend continues, but the LMBF and Cycle B&H methods are looking better long term. Continually watching the market and listening to the economic news out there is getting me down. I just feel that things are not improving, which is contrary to what should be happening in an election year. We are living in interesting times.

On an up note, our USA team members are doing well in the Tour this year. Watching cycling is a good break from watching Bloomberg and MSNBC.

Good Luck and lets be careful out there!

 

[malyla]

I have never thought of myself as a negative bear... until this year. I did a calculation of how much I would need in my tsp (the only thing I control, well sort of control since the IFT restrictions) to retire at my first full opportunity and was shocked by the answer. I may not make it if I continued to follow the strategy I was taught. The 1999-2002 years took a lot out of my account over that time frame and even if I had missed the first (and second) month up in the new bull market, I would have still been ahead if I had not been a buy and holder in stocks during that downturn (1999-2002). So maybe this means I'm now transitioning into the 'old fogey' camp. Leaving my juvenile, wild, devil may care days behind where retirement was a word that only my parents used. I wish I had the portfolio of Birchtree or the years and my current wisdom of the new FED employees to secure my retirement. But unless I win the lottery, I find myself sitting at the mouth of a cave growling at all the talking heads on the TV, wishing that the weather will change and I can be a bull again happily grazing in the field.

Life is always a risk assessment equation. Let's hope we all make the right choices for our situation. <still hoping my lottery numbers are good>

 

[XL-entLady]

I have never thought of myself as a negative bear... until this year. ...The 1999-2002 years took a lot out of my account over that time frame and even if I had missed the first (and second) month up in the new bull market, I would have still been ahead if I had not been a buy and holder in stocks during that downturn (1999-2002). ... But unless I win the lottery, I find myself sitting at the mouth of a cave growling at all the talking heads on the TV, wishing that the weather will change and I can be a bull again happily grazing in the field.

Very well said!

My TSP account was the same song as yours in 1999 through 2002. But that was the second verse. The first verse was my being in G fund for too long during the early years of my career. Put those two verses together and my TSP fund was not large enough for my retirement needs. Luckily I had other options too.

I applaud you and the other members of this MB for not swallowing the "put it in TSP and forget it until retirement" line that we have all been fed for so many years. That piece of pseudo-wisdom cost me a lot of money before I finally woke up!

Lady

 

[alevin]

Wow, maybe we should call ourselves the 3 sisters! That's my story too. G for wayyyyy too long, nibbles in those newfangled F and C funds for way too long, then finally getting up my nerve to go long in that scarey thing C and going buy and hold all the way from 98 downnnnn and down and down, finally seeing the surface again in 03-believing that .

Maylyla, we're in exactly the same boat (cave). XL-ent Lady, glad you found an extra paddle to help you get where you wanted to go. Yeah, being a chicklet isn't such a bad thing to be at times, sometimes they grow up to be big CHICKens! I stayed home in G today in my real account.

 

[nasa1974]

Ladies I couldn't agree more.
I got into TSP at the very beginning. Had the the minimum amount taken out of my pay every two weeks and believed the BS that was fed to us as well. For the first 19 years I made a few moves but pretty much ignored the TSP thinking it would take care of itself. I made less than $80K in my first 19 years. Not much of a retirement account. Fortunately I am CSRS. But I have always looked at my TSP as a buffer to my retirement pension check. In 2004 a friend of mine opened my eyes and I really started to watch what I was doing and by mid 2007 I had jumped up to almost $120K. Not bad, and with daily IFT's maybe I could have a strong year. I got greedy and finished the year out near $114K. I got conservative beginning in 2008 when another friend told me about this MB. Started meeting some really nice and SMART people. I started learning a lot from all of you. I was energized knowing I could really improve my TSP. Then the FRTIB takes us down to two IFT's a month. It will be tough but we can still make money under these restrictions (as well as lose money). I guess the point I am trying to make is that this MB needs to try to help our government and military brothers and sisters into not making the same mistakes most of us made in the beginning of our careers. If the FRTIB and others want to automatically enroll all new government and military employees then they need the proper tools to manage their TSP funds. Two IFT's a month will not make it happen. Sitting back and believing the hype will only give you a small amout of money to retire on. We believed untill our eyes where opened and we educated ourselves. Off my soapbox.

May the force be with us.

 

[GUCHI]

ladies and gents
very well put. you would not believe all the people who are in that same boat with you me and us. i am a 30 year fed and like alot of us older(hate being in that category) seasoned sounds better. when we started know one was guiding us on how when or where to invest, so lots of seasoned feds had buy and hold for 10,15, and 20 years. i saw the light with tsptalk and thought wow !! this is exactly what i have been looking for. like nasa said the only positive recourse is trhat we have a fed pension. now the new FERS folks are on their own. if they don't get aggresive with their tsp, they won't have sh-t !!! a good freind of mine came on 4 yrs ago and he is basicly stuck in the G. i keep telling him to get aggressive since time is on his side, but he's "scared ". i wish like alot of others that i knew about tsptalk years ago, since what you make on the front end has a tremendous effect on the back end. thats water over the dam. i do try to educate my sons on this concept and anyone willing to listen to my ramblings !!! i still have alot to learn and makeup in 5 years and with the restrictions its very difficult for me. good luck 2 all and thanks 4 the board.
guchi

 

[Silverbird]

On an up note, our USA team members are doing well in the Tour this year. Watching cycling is a good break from watching Bloomberg and MSNBC.

Go Garmin-Chipotle, Go Christian Vandevelde (Top US rider in the Tour @ 4th place)!

 

[Steadygain]

I have never thought of myself as a negative bear... until this year.

Hi Malyla - my first time in your home and I don't see you as a "negative bear" at all. In fact you strike me as just the opposite. THIS YEAR has been a "bad year" - and when it comes to seeing how big the nest egg really is for those long golden retirement years most of us are faced with a hard reality.

I did a calculation of how much I would need in my tsp (the only thing I control, well sort of control since the IFT restrictions) to retire at my first full opportunity and was shocked by the answer.

That sounds like very wishful thinking and is a definate drawback of being a Federal employee - in that you can "retire" at such an early age. The upside of this is in all likelihood you have many good healthy years left to extend your time and retire with even more.

I may not make it if I continued to follow the strategy I was taught.

That's the overwhelming part that makes this site so attractive; we are more inclined to not buy in to the general trend - but way more ready to take control and make it better.

The 1999-2002 years took a lot out of my account over that time frame and even if I had missed the first (and second) month up in the new bull market, I would have still been ahead if I had not been a buy and holder in stocks during that downturn (1999-2002).

Fortunately the "Tech Bubble" was a huge outstanding feature prior to that Bear Market. Stocks were selling hundreds of times over their value/earnings - but it didn't matter because the buyers ignored everything and bought the prices higher and higher. But there was no way possible THIS COULD BE SUSTAINED so for many it may have been easier to bail into safety when the Bubble exploded - as it became more obvious.

But our climatic conditions today are a totally different story. The FED has largely curbed the worst of the trouble beginning last summer and equally helped stablize the biggest hit players since 10/07. So what we would think of as a true Bear Market (1999 - 02) has largely been avoided.

So maybe this means I'm now transitioning into the 'old fogey' camp. Leaving my juvenile, wild, devil may care days behind where retirement was a word that only my parents used.

The overwhelming majority of us undergo a huge transition from juvenile - to adult - to "appoaching retirement"

I wish I had the portfolio of Birchtree or the years and my current wisdom of the new FED employees to secure my retirement.

He is an "unmovable Rock" - BUT he waited to age 70 to retire
If you had to acquire his personality - his stuborness - somewhat abrasive characteristics to have his portfolio - "I'd rather you be where you are and who you are". Now don't get me wrong, I love Birch - but mainly for his uniqueness - as he is what he is.

But unless I win the lottery, I find myself sitting at the mouth of a cave growling at all the talking heads on the TV, wishing that the weather will change and I can be a bull again happily grazing in the field.

Life is always a risk assessment equation. Let's hope we all make the right choices for our situation. <still hoping my lottery numbers are good>

I'll buy an occasional Lottery Ticket when it's 100 Million or better - but that's way beyond what I could ever use. It would probably ruin me and all my relationships.

You're looking at things at the worst possible time - when the Markets have been struggling and everyone is apprehensive and expecting the "bad turn of events to continue". Please know this is simply a correction and in the end it will make the Markets stronger. I have 21% of my income going into the TSP (16% plus matching).

Birch (and I) have been at this for many years. I suspect you still have extra years to utilize and you'll end up doing very well. As I tell my dear friend Mamikin - please stay on another 5 or 10 years and in the long run you'll be way better off.

WOW - you sure got me to open up and be very long winded. That's a good sign - this must be a pretty cozy place. :laugh::nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

I'm old enough to perhaps be the original evangelical buy and holder. I've spoken to many folks that did the buy and hold strategy during the last bear market and they all came out smelling like roses - the secret to their success was to continue their DCAing all the way down the well - throwing good money after bad. All the time buying more shares at a much cheaper price. The discipline of DCAing is the redeemer of many a mistake - but only those that understand and have faith in the future dare this technique. Malyla, was that your mistake - shutting off your contributions or adding to the G fund? Even during this current correction provides another opportunity to accumulate more shares on the cheap. I'm mowing down better than 110 shares of the C fund/month and routinely have collected over 1,300 shares per year - if you multiply those types of numbers by years you come up with some substantial shares. My ultimate goal has always been to accumulate at least 40,000 shares of the C fund - and when I roll my I fund position later this year back into the C fund I expect to be real close to my goal.

 

[malyla]

Malyla, was that your mistake - shutting off your contributions or adding to the G fund?

Nope. I have not made one mistake other than listening to the Buy & Holders of the last 20 years. I followed the doctrine handed me at orientation to start the contributions almost 100% in stocks (during a bear market). I then 'went away and forgot it' (as suggested) until after the bear market in 2003 at which time I went 100% high risk stocks. From the end of 1999 to mid 2003 my fund had negative growth and actually equaled the total amount contributed, which means that if I had just put my total contributions accumulated from my inception of the tsp under my mattress (assuming the government would have let me do that with their 5% matching), I would have been no worst off for being out of the market until the Bull market run beginning in second quarter 2003. Another thing to remember is that new FED/MIL employees do not have the resources or knowledge to max out their contributions until several years down the government/military service road. If I follow all the bear markets down with my fund, I will not have enough to live comfortably (Just follow your projected total contribution curve to retirement to realize how important a healthy economy (i.e. healthy growth in the stock market) is for many retirement funds. I’m not saying I could not live off of what I will have assuming no growth. I just do not want to struggle like I see many people who are retired or plan to be soon (god forbid that you should retire at the end of a bear market). I plan on contributing many more years to the workforce after I reach eligibility. I just want it to be because I enjoy working, not because I enjoy eating.

 

[Gumby]

I just want it to be because I enjoy working, not because I enjoy eating.

I agree 100%.

 

[malyla]

Please know this is simply a correction and in the end it will make the Markets stronger. I have 21% of my income going into the TSP (16% plus matching).

WOW - you sure got me to open up and be very long winded. That's a good sign - this must be a pretty cozy place. :laugh::nuts:[/quote]

I try to provide a comfortable place to air and/or debate ideas or just to safely express an opinion. I learn best that way.

As many of you know, I do not respond well to personal attacks and hope people will not engage in that behavior here. You can dispute my ideas, but please do not personally attack me. That kind of behavior is not civilized and only leads to more conflict.

I hope you are right about this bear market, but after doing some reading on my own and reading almost all of the posts here, I do not think we are in for a short ride. What will happen when most of the oil is bought/sold in Euros instead of Dollars. Has any economy survived a devaluation of their currency? To prop up the dollar, we need to attach it to a very valuable resource. If not gold or oil, what then? There is another way to prop up the dollar, but it would destroy this country (regime change as a means to 'change' the minds of those who want to move from a dollar standard to euro standard). Maybe 'we' can delay this change from a dollar standard until we get another technology up and valuably running. At this point, I'm less worried about my retirement down the road, but whether I will have anything to retire to. But, just in case I'm wrong and everything works out, I'll keep my eye on my tsp

 

[Steadygain]

Please know this is simply a correction and in the end it will make the Markets stronger. I have 21% of my income going into the TSP (16% plus matching).

WOW - you sure got me to open up and be very long winded. That's a good sign - this must be a pretty cozy place. :laugh::nuts:

I try to provide a comfortable place to air and/or debate ideas or just to safely express an opinion. I learn best that way.

As many of you know, I do not respond well to personal attacks and hope people will not engage in that behavior here. You can dispute my ideas, but please do not personally attack me. That kind of behavior is not civilized and only leads to more conflict.[/quote]


My sincerest appologies - I meant absolutely no harm, and in no way meant to come across as attacking.

Often I can be misunderstood - which is unfortunate - but I guess I have more than my share of flaws. Anyway - I meant my comments as encourageing and as a compliment.

Will leave you alone

 

[luv2read]

Steady,

I could be wrong but I don't think Malyla was inferring that anything you wrote was a personal attack. I think she was just giving you (and everyone else) a heads-up that debates are welcome but personal attacks are not, since she recently re-opened her thread and this is your first time posting here.

Malyla, my apologies for jumping in here and making at guess at what you were thinking, but Steady is a friend and I just wanted to reassure him. If I'm wrong, please set me straight.

 

[Birchtree]

I always enjoy my personal attacks - they provide me with affirmation.

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you!!

Wow I am so burnt out with 5 emergency admissions - most in the past few hours and was frantically trying to get things done.

I have to admit I couldn't understand - and it really knocked me down - and made me feel I need to take a break and make a point of not comming on during hectic times (which is very rare with me).

The one who has most brought me to sparkle - and largely even formed the sparkle - has moved to a distant land (like another world altogether) and as time passes perhaps we'll get reconnected - but for now it's hard not knowing how everything is.

So your encouragement could not have come at a better time.

Thank you - and the feelings are mutual.

Malyla - often I have to read so fast that I just link everything together. You do have a wonderful home and I totally understand wanting harmony - and not wanting anything to do with strife.