Malyla's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

I've been going to a lot of movies lately, thanks to the new theater in Moore, OK. Believe or not, supposedly the only one in the world with all digital screen and THX. imagine a 75 foot HD picture...it's awesome. Plus it has a balcony with full bar :cheesy:

http://www.warrentheatres.com/moore.asp

 

[malyla]

I've been going to a lot of movies lately, thanks to the new theater in Moore, OK. Believe or not, supposedly the only one in the world with all digital screen and THX. imagine a 75 foot HD picture...it's awesome. Plus it has a balcony with full bar

http://www.warrentheatres.com/moore.asp

Wow! that is a nice looking theater. In my next x-country drive, I'll have to stop and see a movie. I hope they get one of these in Seattle soon.

Can you imagine drinking a martini (shaken, not stirred) while watching the new 007 (Nov 08)? Love the idea

Well, the market was all over the place today. With the Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae meltdown (who came up with those names:notrust, I wonder when the next FED bailout will be. Those are good (short term) for the market:suspicious:.

 

[malyla]

Someone manipulated the markets by putting out that fake annoucement about the FED allowing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to borrow from the discount window. The Dow was down over 200 pts until that announcement then retraced to even before ending down. There be crooks out there. Be carefull everyone.

Bloomberg news (it's on right now) "Fed says no talks with Fannie, Freddie about discount window".
Breaking news. Someone should go to jail!

 

[luv2read]

Crooks setting up for OPEX next week. I seem to remember CNBC pumping out similar fake announcements - (about AMBAC?) in March for a similar setup?

 

[Gumby]

There be crooks out there.

I wonder where they got the good information and how long did they have to trade with it before the official announcement? Smells of excrement!

 

[malyla]

I'm testing a new method that seems very promising. Combination of short term buy and hold and market cycles. I let you know my conclusion soon.

I have finished the spreadsheet on the Cycle B&H strategy. The explanation is in the Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy tread in the Longer Team Fund Strategies forum.
The excel is here as well.

This method/strategy is best for those who can't spend every day looking at the market. I just have too many other things to do than to worry about the market everyday :cheesy:

It does rely on the 8.6 year business cycle to call when to go into capital preservation and when to go into capital accumulation, so let's hope those Princeton modelers got it right. It seemed to work since 1991.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm

Enjoy.

 

[Corepuncher]

Thanks for the interesting article and spreadsheet. I guess what I get out of it is that the 8.6 year business cycle might give you an idea, +/- a few months, when to expect major market trends to begin or end. Of course when the transition occurs is the key.

I would almost favor a "forecast funnel" approach...whereby you first look at the 8.6 year business cycle to get a sense of what may come. Then, while watching the markets, refine it further by using the longer term say 50/200 day MA crossovers for confirmation. For about the last 20 years, if you were to simply follow the long term crossover model, you would have been in for most of the bulls and out for most of the bears.

Your spreadsheet has inspired me to get my old one up and running. Basically it's an analog matching approach, whereby you enter todays various market indicator values, then, it goes back through time and finds similar times through history. Say it finds 10 matches...you can then see what happened in the markets in each of those cases. maybe 8 of 10 cases were down for the next few months...that would then give you a higher confidence to be out for now. Just an example, I'll see if I can get it up and running soon.

 

[Corepuncher]

Also curious if the returns are much better or worse (and consistent) if you include the intermediate term ups and down on that cycle chart and not just the max and min.

 

[malyla]

Also curious if the returns are much better or worse (and consistent) if you include the intermediate term ups and down on that cycle chart and not just the max and min.

Referencing Malyla's account talk post #106 - Excel spreadsheet on comparisons of B&H strategies.

I looked briefly at this and decided it's too risky. It works for some years but for this year you would have been stuck in the worst part of the downturn so far. The intermediate up term is from Late Feb 2008 to Mid March 2009. This includes the huge drop we have had recently. I believe that what the intermediate up term is telling you to do is to look for the Bull rallies in the Bear Market. For my initial quick look at these terms, I see large drops at those times but also brief rallies (2 weeks to 3 months in duration).

You are right that using other indicators to look for confirmation of bull and bear markets as well as warnings of when bull rallies or bear dips(in a bull market) occur can be done. I would like to catch those intermediate ups (in a bear market) and avoid the intermediate downs (in the bull market), but I was trying to make it easy on me and just see what would happen in the macro ups and down. If I can beat the growth return from the macro cycle B&H by catching the intermediate terms, then that is bonus for a very busy person who can't spend a lot of time on market timing. I still have 15 years to go, so just looking to avoid the bear market loss:worried:

I look forward to seeing your method. Every idea adds to one's knowledge

 

[Corepuncher]

Originally I was running programs on my LINUX box trying to find the method that produced the highest return, and also with the least amount of downside risk. For example, I would set my parameters to find a method that, at the worst, returned the same as the S&P, with no negative members of the ensemble. I then came up with several different methods, based on different technicals, for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time periods. Of course they were all different. If i get back into this, I'm gonna devise 2 different trading schemes, by separating out all the BULL markets through history, and all the BEARS. Because as we all know, what works in bull markets does not work during a bear.

 

[airlift]

I hope you succeed!

 

[malyla]

I hope you succeed!

I hope I succeed as well. The only problem is that it may be another 3-5 years before I see for sure. Really it should be 8 years to be sure the business cycle is still valid, but I'm in for the long haul.

I have put the intermediate terms in the excel spreadsheet. See post #70-72 in the Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy tread for more info. In a nutshell, ignore the intermediate down term during the Bull market cycle, but BIG money can be made during the intermediate up term during the Bear market cycle.

Good luck.

 

[Guest2]

Thank you for the hard work and sharing the comparisons with us.

 

[malyla]

Thank you for the hard work and sharing the comparisons with us.

You are all welcome. I have learned so much from everyone on this site. My only regret is not finding this site a lot sooner than I did. My real fund is not doing anywhere near as well as the B&H and cycle B&H comparisons due to being very conservative the first 5 years of my tsp investment. When I see where I would be if I had just been an aggressive B&H, I feel sick

Now with the cycle B&H and some help from the TAs and others on the board, maybe I will make it to where I need to be in 15 years for a comfortable retirement. I wish for all of you to make it there as well

G.L.

 

[Guest2]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171243&postcount=667

I tried to answer the question you posed. Click the above link.

 

[malyla]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171243&postcount=667

I tried to answer the question you posed. Click the above link.

Thanks squalebear,

I read this article. The equations I'm using match with the first one in the article. I then used the last equation to take time weighting of contributions into account and the result was the same +/-0.02%. I'm pretty sure I'm doing the calculations correctly (they are based on Tom's spreadsheet)

The returns starting Jun 2003 are still showing radical difference between the returns calculated using the monthly fund returns and allocation percentage compared the the returns that use the dollar amount of my account at the beginning of each month, contributions for that month and the dollar amount at the beginning of the following month. I can not understand why there is the difference. Below are the equation used. I will try to post the picture of the spreadsheet shortly.

Monthly returns from Monthly Fund Returns and allocation percentages:
(100*(1+((S1*AP1)+(S2*AP2))) - 100)/100
where S1 and S2 are the fund monthly return (ex. If you where in C&S then, S1=-1.47%, S2=-2.02% for 1/1/2002.
AP1 and AP2 are the allocation percentages for the funds you are invested in (ex. account has 50% in C and 50% in S, so AP1=50% and AP2=50%
(100*(1+((S1*AP1)+(S2*AP2))) - 100)/100 = -1.745%


Monthly returns from Dollar amount at the beginning of the following month, total contributions made the month under consideration, and the dollar amount at the beginning of the month under consideration:
(((DA2-(C1))-DA1)/DA1)*100%
DA1 is the dollar amount of your tsp investment as of the 1st of the month you are calculating (ex. Jan 1st 2002 dollar amount from your account)
DA2 is the dollar amount of your tsp investment as of the 1st of the next month. (ex. Feb 1st 2002 dollar amount from your account)
C1 is the total contributions (15% plus matching) made the month you are calculating (ex. total contribution into your account for the month of Jan 2002)
NOTE: The +/-0.07 difference between the monthly returns from dollar amount and the returns from the Monthly Fund Returns is due to the the formula not using the net cash flow weighted by the days invested.
Investment time weighting equation:
(((DA2-(TC))-DA1)/(DA1+((C1*D1/Mday)+(C2*D2/Mday))))*100%
TC = total contributions for the month of Jan 2002
C1 = first contribution invested on day D1 in the month with Mday number of days in that month (ex $300 invested on the 5th and 19th day in a month with 30 days gives C1 = 300, D1=5, Mday = 30)
C2 = second contribution invested on day D2 in the month with Mday number of days in that month (C2 = 300, D2=19, Mday = 30)
This difference can not account for the radical change starting in June 2003.

 

[Birchtree]

Seems complicated - I usually prefer to close my eyes and hold my nose before I invest. A rather simple system similar to a random walk theory.

 

[malyla]

Seems complicated - I usually prefer to close my eyes and hold my nose before I invest. A rather simple system similar to a random walk theory.

Not helpful! Please leave your inane and trivial comments for your tread. Don't respond to a valid question with tripe.

 

[malyla]

Here is a must see video. It's a Joss Whedon production and very funny. It's three parts and it will not be available after July 20th.

Enjoy.

http://www.drhorrible.com/

 

[Birchtree]

We recently broke the 26 year trend line - that means the future is uncharted. We all take are chances. Sorry to realize you are also puerile but you are not alone. Snort.