InsaneZane1's Account Talk

[InsaneZane1]

Looks like C Fund is clearly extending beyond Fib-100 now. I already took profits from it but it looks like it has room to keep climbing. I would still expect to see a black or red session or two to help keep the RSI from breaking the 70 mark as well as to keep 10DMA closer.

S Fund has a decent sized spread between current price and 10DMA. A few flat days for it as well should help.

I Fund made me a happy camper today. I was getting very concerned about the 100DMA continuing to be a resistance point. It still could be, but the price did make it just a hair above 100DMA today. I'm hoping that'll be a signal for it to keep climbing. Fib-50 is another $0.06 away though, so I'd really like to see it get beyond that point in order to have more confidence in it. I know this is a risky fund though, with the Euro zone recession issues. I'm staying in the I Fund but I'm also wary of the trouble it could cause. I have a feeling it could break out for a huge gain though, if it makes it past $26.36, but I'll be happy enough if it only gets back near the ATH of $27.10.

 

[InsaneZane1]

S&P is slowly and steadily starting to distance itself from the 2000 level. I'm thinking an RSI reaching 70+ will be a good excuse to pause before climbing again and not time for a sell-off. Same case can be made for the S Fund (DWCPF).

The I Fund was in a 100DMA/10DMA squeeze, but with EFA now climbing more than it did when the markets opened, it's a much more solid clue to me that the I Fund's 100DMA is no longer a resistance point, so now I'll be watching for it to make it through Fib-50. If it makes it through that level, I'll be more confident that the I Fund will test its previous high. It's still more than 3% below its previous high. I'll be ready to possibly move to an 80G/20I or similar posture before the month ends, but relative MA positions and RSI all suggest to me that the I Fund is in excellent shape for more gains. Also, the I Fund made a nearly 10% rally from bottom to top the last time all the moving averages were so tightly bunched at the bottom of a consolidation period. Bottom to previous high on this run was almost 6%, so my guess is there is still plenty of room for more strong gains over the next month. I'm leaning toward staying solidly 100% I for a while.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I'm a bit surprised to see how well the I Fund did today, considering the fact that EFA went from a nice 0.50%+ gain earlier today to an almost completely flat close. I'm definitely not going to complain at all though. Today's close pushed it past the 100DMA resistance and right at my 50DMA line. It also pushed it above the Fib-50 line, which signals a confirmed trend reversal to me. The spread between 100DMA and 50DMA is tight. RSI is still at a healthy 55, so I wouldn't be surprised if the I Fund has a good day tomorrow.

The C and S Funds are both right around RSI=68. An S&P close at or above 2010 would put the C Fund's RSI above 70, which would definitely be a "reduce" signal for me. The S Fund now also has no obvious resistance points remaining between it and the previous high of $36.11. I'm looking for anything north of 0.41% from DWCPF tomorrow morning. Anything above that point will suggest it may be time to reduce the amount I have in the S Fund at least some. I'm currently at 30S/70I, so a good day for DWCPF tomorrow may cause me to go 20G/10S/70I tomorrow. I would go 20F/10S/70I instead, but I've already used my 2 IFTs for the month.

 

[InsaneZane1]

Flat start to the day for US indices. I only have 30% in the S Fund anyway, but I'll consider reducing that to 10% if DWCPF suddenly jumps to +0.45% or higher in the next 45 minutes. Otherwise, this just looks like a case of it doing exactly what I'd like to see it do - pause some and let the RSI come back down a bit.

EFA is currently up about 0.33%, but it's definitely in good shape with the technicals anyway. I'll most likely be staying where I am for at least another day.

 

[GUCHI]

IZ1 looks like u track the I fund pretty closely? I hv been waiting for that sorry I fund to come alive. I have been hold n it for a long time waiting for a good payday. It did not bother me so much until my recent retirement it his past May. Now I can't dca into my tsp which makes me have to think about things differently, but I'm still deep into equities. I will continue to check u out. Thanks for the info john

 

[NiteFlyer]

It should go up any second now. I just moved from the I to S last week after being in the I most of the year to date.

IZ1 looks like u track the I fund pretty closely? I hv been waiting for that sorry I fund to come alive. I have been hold n it for a long time waiting for a good payday. It did not bother me so much until my recent retirement it his past May. Now I can't dca into my tsp which makes me have to think about things differently, but I'm still deep into equities. I will continue to check u out. Thanks for the info john

 

[GUCHI]

It should go up any second now. I just moved from the I to S last week after being in the I most of the year to date.

Thanks niteflyer for lite n the load on the I train, let's move on uuuuuuppp.....

 

[NiteFlyer]

Thanks niteflyer for lite n the load on the I train, let's move on uuuuuuppp.....

Glad to help out where I can I wish I could get the same rate of return here that I do on my personal stock moves. I'm up 20% since May in the personal stocks but, I only put in $1500 to play with. 20% on my TSP fund would have been over $100K since May I've been playing with Tesla (TSLA) and just started on StrataSys (SSYS) (3D printing). Although 3D Printing Systems (DDD) looks like a better choice for that tech; I may switch.

 

[InsaneZane1]

IZ1 looks like u track the I fund pretty closely? I hv been waiting for that sorry I fund to come alive. I have been hold n it for a long time waiting for a good payday. It did not bother me so much until my recent retirement it his past May. Now I can't dca into my tsp which makes me have to think about things differently, but I'm still deep into equities. I will continue to check u out. Thanks for the info john

I actually don't bias toward any specific fund. If one fund looks like it's in a great position to climb the most, I'll normally go "all in" or heavily toward that fund. The way the I Fund's chart looks now, though, looks very similar to previous large drops. On those occasions, the I made a jump of 9.2% in a span of 3 weeks, then climbed another 3+% over the next month (August thru October 2013). After the bottom of the dip in early February 2014, it made another 8% jump in a matter of 3 weeks. One thing the current run-up has in common with those previous dips and jumps is the fact the 10DMA fell below the 100DMA, and the 50DMA/100DMA spread was tight, just like it is now. For the time being, yes I do think the I Fund has the technicals that would support another 8+% climb - especially since the 10DMA line is about to converge with the 10DMA line from below.

My IFT history might indeed show a bias toward the I Fund, but that would be more a matter of coincidence with when I'm trying to time my moves - or am even able to make them - at a given time. I'm glad to know I can help though.

 

[InsaneZane1]

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month, so there's a really good chance I will "combat reload" my IFTs by moving heavily toward the G Fund tomorrow. It's been a good month anyway. Even after today's loss, I'm still up about 3.3% for the month. I might as well lock in gains now while there is a good chance of the Russia/Ukraine situation and now the GDP/unemployment reports possibly being all that will be needed to get a bear raid started.

I'm currently 30S/70I. The I Fund fell into a tight squeeze between the 10DMA and 100DMA. I'm hoping the 10DMA support will hold tomorrow. If that's the case, I may IFT to 50G/10S/40I in the morning. If it looks like it isn't going to hold, I may just go 80G/10S/10I and cut my I Fund risk by 85%.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I ended up doing an IFT to 80G/10S/10I this morning. I just wasn't getting a good enough vibe about the short-term health of the markets. The announcement about England elevating its terror threat level had me really concerned about how the I Fund would do too. Alas, EFA finished the day just barely in the negative, so I'm hoping to see a very minor drop in price on the I Fund this evening.

DWCPF (S Fund) showed some surprising strength today though. It should help wipe out any losses I might take today in the I Fund. I'll just be happy to have locked in a 3.0%+ finish for the month and will look for a new entry point in to one or more of the funds next week or even sometime later in September, if necessary.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I really hate to jump back in on days when the markets are up, but there are too many bull flags to ignore now. I just IFT'd to 50S/50I after both ISM reports came in with excellent numbers. Talk of a cease fire in Russia/Ukraine also seems to be affecting EFA (I Fund) in a very positive way already this morning, so hopefully it will stay that way and give the I Fund plenty of room to resume the large climb it started last month.

I think AAPL's rumored release of the iPhone 6 and Alibaba's pending IPO will help bring more retail money into the equities markets, which will hopefully translate into a good September.

I don't buy into the rubbish that September is a historically bad month for stocks. I've had just as many good monthly finishes to my account in September as I've had bad. In fact, the last four months of the calendar year have historically been better for my account than anything.

 

[WorkFE]

If I recall, the last few years, I made half my annual return in the last 4 months. Having said that, I prefer the last 3.

 

[nnuut]

If I recall, the last few years, I made half my annual return in the last 4 months. Having said that, I prefer the last 3.

Usually the BEST time of the year! What affect will the Mid Term Elections have?

 

[GUCHI]

Iz1 thanks for sharing your thoughts. I have been holding this long on the I fund no need to run now, and besides I'm spread among all the funds to absorb a little pain if needed.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I just IFT'd from 50S/50I to 100S. I knew I was picking a horrible time to IFT to 50S/50I at the beginning of this month. There was too much risk and the odds of a good reward of +2.0% or better were too low. Well, lesson learned.

Why did I do this IFT now? Well, this stupid 2 IFT/month limit makes me very reluctant to guarantee myself with a loss for the month by using IFT #2 on a move to the G Fund. I figured I would ride out the short term volatility as a result. And now, I'm seeing very ripe conditions for a bounce for the S Fund. The S Fund ended yesterday right by its 200DMA support level. The RSI also fell to 33. While stocks normally aren't considered "oversold" until they fall below 30, I've found that it's much better to start buying back in when the RSI falls below 40, as far as the TSP Funds specifically are concerned. Also, the I Fund has already started its chart inversion into a long-term bear. The current price already fell below the 200DMA, and now the 10DMA will likely breach that support level as well - unless the share price ends considerably higher today. Once the 100DMA also falls below it, we'll have ourselves a full-blown long-term bear on our hands as far as the I Fund is concerned. I say "No thanks!" I'll just cut my losses - as large as they ended up being - and take it as a lesson learned - while also taking advantage of excellent conditions for a bounce with the S Fund.

 

[InsaneZane1]

C Fund looks like a moderate risk buy right now. RSI of 48.8 is far too high for me to recommend buying into it despite the fact it appears to have bounced off the 50DMA.

S Fund appeared to be a low risk buy with high profit potential, which is why I IFT'd to 100% S. Anything below RSI-40 is considered a potential buy-back time to me. Even after today's moderate gain, the RSI is still only at 39. This looks like a great place to be to recover losses incurred as a result of stupidly deviating from the strategy I normally stick with.

I Fund recovered some, but it looks more flat to me. The 10DMA made it just below the 200DMA too (technically even with it though), which is not a good sign at all to me. We're now only 2 inversions away from a complete long-term bear trend - 50DMA/200DMA and 100DMA/200DMA. Once those two inversions take place, we'll be in full on bear territory. I doubt I'll be going anywhere near the I Fund again anytime soon. I've made good money off the I Fund in the past, but now is a great time to lose money in that fund. Its sub-30 RSI isn't going to fool me either. The I Fund has been trending downward since July. That long a consistent trend is more indicative of an even longer bear trend to me. If this fund interests you at all, all I can say is buyer be warned. You'll be playing with fire in this fund.

 

[InsaneZane1]

Bad news: I rode 100S all the way to the very bottom from the very top. I locked in profits from S and I Funds in late August, then succumbed to peer pressure and went back to 100S in early September - even when I knew all of you who started doing your IFTs toward the S at that time were out of your minds. I lost mine and joined all of you though, so you're in good company.

Good news: I wasn't about to burn IFT #2 on a move to the lily pad and risk locking in a loss while also missing a chance at a possible rebound before the end of September. This may sound like bad news. Well, it is if you look at the percent and dollar amounts I lost in September. But what was good about it is I stayed 100S the entire time and have made back almost literally every penny that I lost after the September blunder.

Update: I don't normally IFT out of volatile funds when their respective indexes (DWCPF in this case) are down. But I'm starting to see weakness in the tech sector stocks, plus this afternoon's scheduled Fed announcement also has me concerned about increased resistance coming. I'm taking half of the risk off the table today and went from 100S to 50G/50S this morning. I'm still expecting to see the C and S Funds make more gains soon, as Q3 earnings reports have thus far given me reason to believe we'll at least test previous highs (at least with the S&P 500/C Fund), if not also slightly beat them. I don't expect too much beyond the previous highs though, which is why I'm taking back some profits now.

 

[InsaneZane1]

Japan Bank action and PMI report beating expectations (66.2 act vs 60 est) definitely intrigued me to the point I used October IFT#2 this morning on a move from 50G/50S to 25G/10C/15S/50I. I think I Fund still has some inherent risks due to Eurozone weakness, but the index it follows (EAFE) is a market cap-weighted index. With Japan and UK having the heaviest individual influences on EAFE, China having 0 direct influence on it, and Japan's bank now saying it's going to start buying stocks and bonds, I have to believe we can squeeze at least another 2-3% out of these share prices soon, if not even more. The biggest risk I see with the I Fund would be Germany and the Eurozone, in general.

My personal goal is to average 24%/yr yield. This seems astronomically high to many, but it only takes an average monthly gain of 2% to get to that point. I'm not going to hit 24% this year after the big mistakes I made with the September fiasco, but I will still gladly take a 2-3% monthly gain. Even if that's all I can expect to get before going 100% G Fund, it'll be enough for me to be happy with my account performance as far as November, specifically, is concerned.

Also, watching the individual sectors of DWCPF (S Fund), most of the gains are still coming from the Micros and the non-dividend stocks. I would expect the bias to start leaning more toward the large caps and dividend payers before I'll think this rally is about to end. So far, that hasn't happened.

 

[InsaneZane1]

I really don't like the current/10-day spread for the C, S, and I Funds right now. The gaps are too large, in my opinion. This is a very inviting time for technical/day-traders to look for any excuse to take profits. Good news is the typical mass sell-off sectors of DWCPF (S Fund) are actually performing the best this morning. The Smalls and Micros are normally the weakest performers during consolidation periods. But this morning, the Micros and non-dividend Smalls are doing the best. This seems more like a minor bear raid to me. I would expect to see prices drop back down to their 10-day averages to test them for support soon.

As of this morning, the S Fund is roughly 1.5%-1.7% above its 10-day and 100-day averages. I would expect to see the S Fund fall inline with those averages before looking for a bounce. The attached charts represent the C, S, and I Funds with prices from about 20 minutes ago included.