Malyla's Account Talk

[malyla]

The dotcom bubble should have crashed the market much more than it did. Greenspan lowing the FED rate to 1% forstalled this by causing another bubble to form - the housing bubble. This has burst and I'm not sure that the FED can forstall the deflation of the market to below the average this time. Life was good from 2003-2007. This was borrowed (literally) time for the market. We will pay for this bubble extension in the next 2-4 years.

Well, the housing bubble gains have been erased. We are at the level of mid 2003. So, how far would the dotcom bubble have deflated if the housing bubble never happened? (Yes, I know this does not work, but my brain is on an intergalactic trip)

 

[malyla]

Well, life has caught up with me and I need to concentrate on that for awhile. I'll be flying around for awhile with a trip to get home to vote on Nov 4th. I'll lurk whenever possible and if I find some interesting info, I'll try to find a computer from which to post it. Don't let politics stress you out. Just 10 more days until the end:blink:

After the last month of bad gains in the F fund and with the threat of a bond dislocation, I will be moving my tsp into the G fund for awhile before I resume F as a bear market safe haven.

Good Luck everyone. I think we are going to need it - seriously

Malyla

 

[justbizness45]

I voted last week. My county is entirely mail in ballot. Maybe backward but very little stress. If I need info on a candidate I just go online and figure it out.

 

[tsptalk]

See you when you get back malyla. I am out of bonds now too. Unfortunately, a day late as Friday took half my recent gains. Good luck.

 

[malyla]

I'm back for a quick word or two then away for another week.

Voting felt so good. I didn't even mind the hour and a half wait in line. I did not watch the results but some over excited family members called to wake me up around midnight to give me the results (I'm very tired, but hopeful for a good future). I did see Obama's speech live and I have to admit that I was overcome with relief that we finally have a president (elect) who can articulate correctly the word 'America' Truly!

It appears to have been a record voter turnout (64% - which the most in 100 years - unofficial tally).

Now we need to work together for our furture - build up and improve the infrastructure, develop alternative energy resources, and put regulation back in the market. I think we can do it.

I am still in F as I am tired of selling at a loss. One more good day like yesterday and I will be even or up for the last 2 months. Stocks seem to have settled down, but I have a S&P 500 target of 750 before the market improves in anticipation of the recession ending near the end of 2009. This doesn't mean the bottom will be seen in early 2009, just that the recession is over. I still see 4th quarter 2010 as the full resumption of the Bull market.

Well back to work. G.L.
Malyla

 

[Steadygain]

I'm back for a quick word or two then away for another week.

Will miss you - and have been missing you.

Voting felt so good. I didn't even mind the hour and a half wait in line.

I walked right in and was out within a few minutes (just great timing in a very small town). We had 2 issues I was thrilled to vote about on our ballot: 1) Keeping our township NON-INDUSTRIAL 2) Not even letting that be considered. We have the best agricultural soil in the whole country and I very much want it to stay 100% Agricultural

I did not watch the results but some over excited family members called to wake me up around midnight to give me the results (I'm very tired, but hopeful for a good future).

It's funny because I made a point of NOT WATCHING - this place kind of over killed it for me. But my daughter (almost 16) keeps shouting out from the start. So at one point McCain was like 27 and Obama was 3. I went in the kitchen and visited - dried the dishes and put them away - and when I went back to see how Carrie was doing it was McCain 32 and Obama 85

I tried downloading virus updates for hours last night and when I came up around midnight Obama was like 334 to McCain's 156. So I was really glad the election was won by a significant margin.

Anyway - I know what ya mean; I'm ready for a nap but have probably never felt more hopeful for a good future.

I did see Obama's speech live and I have to admit that I was overcome with relief that we finally have a president (elect) who can articulate correctly the word 'America' Truly!
He has an incredible ability to articulate - and fortunately the rest of the world already likes him a lot.

It appears to have been a record voter turnout (64% - which the most in 100 years - unofficial tally).

Now we need to work together for our furture - build up and improve the infrastructure, develop alternative energy resources, and put regulation back in the market. I think we can do it.
I totally agree. Obama seemed way more prepared to take us in the right direction for an indefinate solution (not just a patch for the next few years).

I am still in F as I am tired of selling at a loss. One more good day like yesterday and I will be even or up for the last 2 months. Stocks seem to have settled down, but I have a S&P 500 target of 750 before the market improves in anticipation of the recession ending near the end of 2009. This doesn't mean the bottom will be seen in early 2009, just that the recession is over. I still see 4th quarter 2010 as the full resumption of the Bull market.

Well back to work. G.L.
Malyla

I'm not even looking at the Market stuff for now; am too convinced it a long road ahead and watching the day to day is not a good fit for me at this time.

Thanks a million for the visit Malyla. Hope you have a restfull week.

 

[malyla]

Thanks Steady. My Mom just called expressing her delight at the intelligence of the majority of the people in this country (she really didn't think the election was going to go this way. My Dad is silent). We have 4 years to see if it was the right choice.


On a different subject, I'm watching Fast Money on CNBC and they have officially declared the death of the Buy and Hold strategy (MHRIP)
Mark this date everyone. They even admitted that their guest and the retirement folks who over the year said B&H was the right strategy were all wrong. Momentus

 

[Birchtree]

Hey, don't believe everything you hear - and offer your dad my empathy.

 

[malyla]

Hey, don't believe everything you hear - and offer your dad my empathy.

Hey, CNBC had a special (it had a logo and theme music this time) on Fast Money called the Death of Buy and Hold:laugh:. They then proceeded to argue about whether Buffet was a true Buy and Holder as he sells PUTS (????). Anyway, does this mean it's time to be a buy and holder again?

I am thinking of buying into the market this week. I have 10 minutes (7 now) to decide.:nuts:

 

[malyla]

Hey, CNBC had a special (it had a logo and theme music this time) on Fast Money called the Death of Buy and Hold:laugh:. They then proceeded to argue about whether Buffet was a true Buy and Holder as he sells PUTS (????). Anyway, does this mean it's time to be a buy and holder again?

I am thinking of buying into the market this week. I have 10 minutes (7 now) to decide.:nuts:

I'm talking my profits from the F fund and going G awhile. I know this is deviating from my business cycle buy and hold strategy, but I feel that bonds may not do well in 2009 (China,debt,etc.). I still have yet to understand why the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds have fail for 2008, so I am taking my 20 cents per share profit and sitting on the lilly pad for awhile as I try to understand what bonds are doing (zen meditation may work better than analysis at this point). I will have one more IFT this month to change my mind and either way I am not in stock during the bear market. This year has moved too fast for me to catch a bear rally so I will continue to follow the plan of capital preservation in a bear market (I certainly missed this one and will not allow myself to get whiplash following Discision Point). G.L. everyone.

 

[malyla]

I'm talking my profits from the F fund and going G awhile. I know this is deviating from my business cycle buy and hold strategy, but I feel that bonds may not do well in 2009 (China,debt,etc.). I still have yet to understand why the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds have fail for 2008, so I am taking my 20 cents per share profit and sitting on the lilly pad for awhile as I try to understand what bonds are doing (zen meditation may work better than analysis at this point). I will have one more IFT this month to change my mind and either way I am not in stock during the bear market. This year has moved too fast for me to catch a bear rally so I will continue to follow the plan of capital preservation in a bear market (I certainly missed this one and will not allow myself to get whiplash following Discision Point). G.L. everyone.

Well, 2008 has been eventful. I found a strategy to follow which saved me huge losses in this bear market. Admittedly, I was a little late in finding this strategy which caused me to lose ~10% in the first drop in Jan 2008, but since then I have managed to make up some of that in a two day bear rally I caught in this very volatile trading year. So here is my end of year results and comparisons. Enjoy.

2008 TSP earnings
G 3.74%
F 5.45%
C - 36.99%
S - 38.32%
I - 42.42%

Strategy comparisons
A -42.42%
B -38.96%
D -31.30%
E1 5.45%
E2 -7.53%
H 5.45%
J -11.38%


A = Buy & Hold 100% in stocks (I fund)
B = Buy & Hold 100% in stocks (40%C, 30%S, 30%I)
D = Diversified B&H 20% Bonds, 80% stocks (30%C, 30%S, 20% I)
E1 = Business Cycle B&H 100%F in Bear markets, 100% stocks in Bull markets (I fund);
E2 = 25%G,50%F,10%C,10%S,5%I in Bear markets, 100% stocks in Bull markets(I fund)
H = Business Cycle B&H 100%F in Bear markets, 100% stocks in Bull markets (40%C, 30%S, 30%I)
J = Last Month Best Fund method (100% in the fund that had the highest return the previous month)

The Business cycle buy and hold strategy which has the safety strategy of being in the F fund during the projected bear market cycle as shown in the 8.6 year Global Business Cycle has been back tested to great results with a 17 year overall return of 1245% compared to the 17 year overall return of 306% for the Buy and Hold strategy. Our current bear market should end May 2011 according to this theory. After that the strategy has me fully invested in the I fund.

My 2008 return is -7.6% which is better than I could have hoped for. I did miss another 2% gain by getting out of the F fund, but I’m happy to be waiting for a better entry point. Congratulations to the few who bet on the I fund this month. A little more courage and I could have broken even for 2008 ;-)

I think the F fund will do well until April when Obama will use the rest of the TARP money to ‘fix’ the economy. So I’m considering getting back into the F fund soon. My goal is to make at least 6.5% in 2009. Whether or not I can do this in the F fund is yet to be determined. (This last year gave 5.45% in the F fund and 2007 gave 7.08% in the F fund. Other bear market years did much better).

Happy New Year Everyone! Good trading.

 

[malyla]

Going F fund COB Jan 12th. Staying until contrary evidence otherwise presents itself.

G.L. everyone

 

[McDuck]

Going F fund COB Jan 12th. Staying until contrary evidence otherwise presents itself.

Do Bond's (in F-fund) interest rates have that much room to go down?

 

[malyla]

Do Bond's (in F-fund) interest rates have that much room to go down?

Yes Greg, I do think bonds will do well until at least the spring (April). It is the safety for those with money in the stock market and the market looks bearish to me for the next few months. I also read a blog posted in the Bear Cave that had me thinking that international investment in US treasuries will not stop. I am still trying to understand the F fund investments and the indicator I should watch for the F fund, but I think there is room for the bubble to expand a while. I think the F fund will beat the G fund in the first quarter and I will look again at it after. I do feel a little miffed with myself for letting a blog about the treasuries bubble influence me to get out of the F fund in early December, but if I'm going to meet my goals I need to follow the strategy I adapted (Business cycle B&H - see yesterdays post). I may also do a very short term trade from time to time as well

Good luck everyone

 

[Corepuncher]

I've thought about F too..but, there is that "black herring" what-if scenario out there that scares the crap out of me! I'm a G man.

 

[malyla]

I've thought about F too..but, there is that "black herring" what-if scenario out there that scares the crap out of me! I'm a G man.

Huh Black herring what-if scenario? What is that????? Sounds vile

 

[malyla]

Anyone else seeing the imminent completion of an inverse head and shoulder pattern? I'm thinking that the turn-around is somewhere between 780-850 with a rally above 1000 (this rally endpoint is hard to believe, but chart analysis points to that:nuts.

I may try for a bear rally play

 

[malyla]

Anyone else seeing the imminent completion of an inverse head and shoulder pattern? I'm thinking that the turn-around is somewhere between 780-850 with a rally above 1000 (this rally endpoint is hard to believe, but chart analysis points to that:nuts.

I may try for a bear rally play

After a little more research I have two conclusions on the negative slope of the neckline. One google search mentioned that a negative slope decreases the bullish outcome of an inverse head and shoulder. The other (may have been from stockcharts.com) doesn't show any sentiment on the signal one way or the other. May watch this one. Anyone able to shed some light on this chart pattern?

 

[malyla]

After a little more research I have two conclusions on the negative slope of the neckline. One google search mentioned that a negative slope decreases the bullish outcome of an inverse head and shoulder. The other (may have been from stockcharts.com) doesn't show any sentiment on the signal one way or the other. May watch this one. Anyone able to shed some light on this chart pattern?

OK - No one is talking about this pattern. A few weeks back Oscar mentioned it but now nothing. Volumn seems to support this as a real pattern, but it is off the chart technicals radar. MB - Any ideas why?

 

[Steadygain]

Anyone else seeing the imminent completion of an inverse head and shoulder pattern? I'm thinking that the turn-around is somewhere between 780-850 with a rally above 1000 (this rally endpoint is hard to believe, but chart analysis points to that:nuts.

I may try for a bear rally play

I don't see it going as high as 1000 (but who knows)

A plunge to 780 - will like follow with a good bounce (2 day)

In my thinking (which is based solely on economic reports) I'm expecting the Markets to TANK - probably 20% or so before it's over.