Malyla's Account Talk

[malyla]

Anyone else seeing the imminent completion of an inverse head and shoulder pattern? I'm thinking that the turn-around is somewhere between 780-850 with a rally above 1000 (this rally endpoint is hard to believe, but chart analysis points to that:nuts.

I may try for a bear rally play

I read the commentary in the Bear Cave from www.trivisonno.com of Jeffrey Saut (I'm getting there...) market calls about the violation of the December lows during the first quarter of the new year being a warning sign for the whole year. That low is 8149 on the DOW. We are getting close. Maybe that inverted head and shoulders was imaginary?:embarrest:

 

[malyla]

I read the commentary in the Bear Cave from www.trivisonno.com of Jeffrey Saut (I'm getting there...) market calls about the violation of the December lows during the first quarter of the new year being a warning sign for the whole year. That low is 8149 on the DOW. We are getting close.

Ummmm.... Are we going to close below 8149? Oh man.... we did. This year is going to be bad.

Well, the ticker says we closed at 8149.01 and the Dec low was 8149.09. Tomorrow should be very interesting.

 

[malyla]

My thoughts, for the week, after listening to TG on his plan and the talking heads who do not want the market to go down anymore than it already has. Posted in Corepuncher's thread as well.....

While watching Bloomberg TV this morning and listening to the reports of the earnings which were almost all losses, I had a thought about why we are seeing this volitility. Everyone is trying desperately to slow down the deflation of this credit bubble that includes housing mortgages, insurance (credit default swaps), and the toxic assets (reselling (leveraging) of CDS's without the collateral causing speculation on non-existant assets coupled with the bundling of bad mortgages for sale to banks and investment companies). They are trying to have a slow controlled deflation instead of the crash and resulting depression that is caused by the cascade of failed business that will occur in a rapid deflation. Everyone knows that the toxic assets will have to be taken off the books causing a loss on balance sheets, but if that can be done in a controlled slow drain with Fed money cushining the small falls, then they may survive as a bank/company. That is what they are trying to do and that is why, if they succeed, 2009 will be a slow unwinding of toxic assets from the balance sheets. Listening to the reports of earnings seem to confirm this as most companies are reporting losses that, IMHO, should be much greater.

I for one hope they succeed. If this is done right, the companies/banks will absorb their own losses due to this high risk speculation from the last decade in the long run but remain a viable company in the short term with the help of the FED, which does expect to get paid back when the crisis is over and all books are clean and healthy. The risk to the FED is that after that money is given out, the company/bank defaults with no hope of retrieving that loan. Hence, the stress test on banks/companies before they will be given money (some insurance for the FED). The second risk is if a panic starts that ruins this whole scenario. I trust that they can do this (slow deflation with removal of the toxic assets). If the people trust it, then 2009 will be bad (10-20% down?), but it will be better after the balance sheets balance once again. Another question, Can this slow deflation and cleaning of books of toxic assets be accomplished in one year and do we have the cooperation of the foriegn investment banks as well?

Also, rates will be kept low during a slow deflation to encourage lending, so the F fund should be OK in 2009. All bets are off if the crash happens.

Good luck everyone.

After more thinking, I like what TG did yesterday. He has an uphill battle with wallstreet traders and investers who are trying to manipulate the market and sentiment for their advangtage. He is trying not to panic the market, but is telling them that if they do not cooperate, they risk losing it all. I wonder what TG will do to those who short the market and then try to cause a panic???? I sometimes can't believe my retirement is tied up in this mess

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

I sometimes can't believe my retirement is tied up in this mess

It doesn't have to be. You could simply park in the G fund and never lose money...or retire!

 

[malyla]

It doesn't have to be. You could simply park in the G fund and never lose money...or retire!

GODS - To never retire, but to die at my desk....<shudder>. Let's hope not

Still in the G garage, although, now that the threat of a bond dislocation occuring is decreasing, I'm thinking of following my Biz_Cycle strategy back into the F fund.

G.L.

 

[Steadygain]

GODS - To never retire, but to die at my desk....<shudder>. Let's hope not

Still in the G garage, although, now that the threat of a bond dislocation occuring is decreasing, I'm thinking of following my Biz_Cycle strategy back into the F fund.

G.L.

Hi Malyla,
I'm in the same boat and I sure wish you the best.

It's such a weird 'guessing game' - wondering if the Stimulus News will possibly spark a rally (or just broad wishful thinking) - or will we finally break though and have a far better 'quick large bounce'

For now I'll stay in the Garage... but it's getting old fast.

Well have a good night

Steady

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

GODS - To never retire, but to die at my desk....<shudder>. Let's hope not

Sorry, I didn't mean to scare you. I just thought a little dose of reality was in order.

Personally, I'm glad we have some control of our retirement funds. It may be a little scary right now, but when the market turns around, we will be making money hand over fist! Patience my friend, patience!

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Hi Malyla,
I'm in the same boat and I sure wish you the best.

It's such a weird 'guessing game' - wondering if the Stimulus News will possibly spark a rally (or just broad wishful thinking) - or will we finally break though and have a far better 'quick large bounce'

For now I'll stay in the Garage... but it's getting old fast.

Well have a good night

Steady

Personally, I'm hoping to catch a lower low, so I can get out of the (G)arage and back on the road to riches! As long as that forms the bottom, of course!:embarrest:

 

[malyla]

Well I moved back into Bonds (F fund) which is inline with the longer term strategy of the Biz_Cycle Buy and Hold Strategy. But, I have noticed that being human, I can't help myself from second guessing and meddling with my account. June 2011 is a long way away (not really, but when you are following the market daily (hourly..?) then 28 months seems like a very long time), so I find myself looking at swing and day trades and every so often I will use my TSP account and my new knowledge to catch a gain for my account.

To combat this meddling, I am looking into starting a small trading account and doing some ETF trades. Does anyone have a favorite trader/company they use or is Scottrade it?

G.L.

 

[CountryBoy]

Well I moved back into Bonds (F fund) which is inline with the longer term strategy of the Biz_Cycle Buy and Hold Strategy. But, I have noticed that being human, I can't help myself from second guessing and meddling with my account. June 2011 is a long way away (not really, but when you are following the market daily (hourly..?) then 28 months seems like a very long time), so I find myself looking at swing and day trades and every so often I will use my TSP account and my new knowledge to catch a gain for my account.

To combat this meddling, I am looking into starting a small trading account and doing some ETF trades. Does anyone have a favorite trader/company they use or is Scottrade it?

G.L.

You can trade ETF's with Sharebuilder.

CB

 

[malyla]

You can trade ETF's with Sharebuilder.

CB

Thanks. They didn't come up on my search the first time. I will now search for ETF traders.
Thanks again.
Malyla

 

[poolman]

Thanks. They didn't come up on my search the first time. I will now search for ETF traders.
Thanks again.
Malyla

Malyla,

I attempted to get an account with sharebuilder. I faxed all needed information to them twice in regards to rolling over a simple 401K. 8 pages total. They said they never got the paperwork the first time so I faxed a second time and waited. I called again and they said they did not get the paperwork. I made several phone calls and kept getting the run around. I finally gave up. I did not like there customer service.

I'm with Scottrade now and I really like it so far plus they have local branch offices everywhere. $7.00/Trades and allot of good information, Everything you need is real time. A decent platform in regards to trading.

my 2 cents..

 

[poolman]

Malyla,

I attempted to get an account with sharebuilder. I faxed all needed information to them twice in regards to rolling over a simple 401K. 8 pages total. They said they never got the paperwork the first time so I faxed a second time and waited. I called again and they said they did not get the paperwork. I made several phone calls and kept getting the run around. I finally gave up. I did not like there customer service.

I'm with Scottrade now and I really like it so far plus they have local branch offices everywhere. $7.00/Trades and allot of good information, Everything you need is real time. A decent platform in regards to trading.

my 2 cents..

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Scottrade is good. Glad to see you went that way, Poolman. Just be careful to put in a 'change order' not a 'cancel order' and re-enter new order, if you want to adjust your bid/ask price on something. Also download Quotetracker at quotetracker.com for some real nice real-time charting capabilities, that Scottrade was lacking a few years ago. Maybe they have improved since then. QuoteTracker will pull the streaming, real-time data from your Scottrade account.

 

[poolman]

Scottrade is good. Glad to see you went that way, Poolman. Just be careful to put in a 'change order' not a 'cancel order' and re-enter new order, if you want to adjust your bid/ask price on something. Also download Quotetracker at quotetracker.com for some real nice real-time charting capabilities, that Scottrade was lacking a few years ago. Maybe they have improved since then. QuoteTracker will pull the streaming, real-time data from your Scottrade account.

Thanks Futurestrader,

I will remember that. I have not made any trades as of yet. I'm waiting on my money from Franklin Templeton who I had my 401K plan. I took an early distribution. I set the Scottrade account up as a joint account non retirment. I'm planning on using the money as income.

 

[justbizness45]

I'm using Zecco, cheaper trades (4.50) for a small time account like mine. The tech analysis/tools aren't that great but I can get that elsewhere. A plus is their MB which is great for getting questions answered.

 

[malyla]

I'm using Zecco, cheaper trades (4.50) for a small time account like mine. The tech analysis/tools aren't that great but I can get that elsewhere. A plus is their MB which is great for getting questions answered.

Thanks everyone for your info. I'm still looking around for whom I can trust my money to while I try this ETF trading. Anyone have problems cashing out all or part of their account?

 

[wv-girl]

Malyla,

I attempted to get an account with sharebuilder. I faxed all needed information to them twice in regards to rolling over a simple 401K. 8 pages total. They said they never got the paperwork the first time so I faxed a second time and waited. I called again and they said they did not get the paperwork. I made several phone calls and kept getting the run around. I finally gave up. I did not like there customer service.

I'm with Scottrade now and I really like it so far plus they have local branch offices everywhere. $7.00/Trades and allot of good information, Everything you need is real time. A decent platform in regards to trading.

my 2 cents..

Sharebuilder is run by ING...And I think ING is in trouble. Had a savings acct with them last year but pulled it all out in Nov I think. Maybe a good thing you went American? In this market who knows. My mattress is looking better and better. :laugh:

 

[poolman]

Sharebuilder is run by ING...And I think ING is in trouble. Had a savings acct with them last year but pulled it all out in Nov I think. Maybe a good thing you went American? In this market who knows. My mattress is looking better and better. :laugh:

I got a courtesy called from Scottrade today out of the blue welcoming me. I thought that was nice.

I've got everything set up with them now. I have my checking account linked and verified and ready to deposit money with them.

I'm just waiting on my money from Franklin Templeton. I called them today and the checks are in the mail.

I will start off my Scottrade account with 10K and see how it goes.

 

[wv-girl]

I got a courtesy called from Scottrade today out of the blue welcoming me. I thought that was nice.

I've got everything set up with them now. I have my checking account linked and verified and ready to deposit money with them.

I'm just waiting on my money from Franklin Templeton. I called them today and the checks are in the mail.

I will start off my Scottrade account with 10K and see how it goes.

I pass a Scottrade office everyday, and always think I need to get in there and set up an acct. Need an extra push or something. I am still slowly learning about all of the trading vehicles and don't have enough confidence yet. Gl and I hope you make mucho dinar in your account