Malyla's Account Talk

[polarbear]

This being a bear mkt, it's smart to get out sooner rather than later once you've snagged some dough. Otherwise you pay a sagging-back-down exit tax, and in the case of the I fund it's a wild mouse because of currency exchange rates. Lucky if the fee is not too high. I don't mind getting clipped $400. I mind losing $20,000 or $40,000 like in August-September, still not whole yet, but close.

I follow what you guys write about Elliott Wave: Malyla, FireWeatherMet, Uptrend, Tony Caldaro and a couple of others on the internet, and think about it, along with standard TA, flagpoles, bear flags, bull flags.

What I'm wondering now (FOMC Mtg Nov.1-2, btw) is what's going to happen next week, next month. I got out, 100%G, going into November. I will be glad to watch it set up. I don't care if it goes higher at first. I don't really think it will. It may. I don't care. It seems to me the mkt is a bit tired, overextended, overbought. There are these indicators: MACD, RSI, Stoch, and so on, and I have only the faintest idea about what they indicate, and even how they are computed. I guess if I study them, I'll learn. Then there are CoolHand's indicators (standard ones). Where is this damn thing going now?!

Friday night, my computer, and a Blue Moon. I just opened up the case to my high-end accordion (I am NOT kidding) that mother bought me in Vienna in 1965 after I told her I didn't want it, and which I have never played except to notice broken reeds. Wow, after 45 years it took me a half hour to unstick the bellows. OK, broken reeds, check, on treble side. Whatever. It's not like I care, really. Cost to repair, who, where? Accordion Heaven in St. Paul, Minnesota is 1700 miles away. Yeah. Stay tuned! Yeah, I've got a stack of music about a half a foot high. And this guy on the Tampa internet Mr. Monte, nephew of my now dead acc. teacher, Angelo Presti, who knew the same people I knew back then, but somehow I don't seem to have known him, discovered him a couple of years ago on the web, the web is funny, Del Webb's blog or something. Whatever. Wife thinks this will be part of my retirement. Charming. I retook physical possession of this thing after my sister and I cleared out Dad's house 2008-2010 (she's slow) . . . It's like a very long episode from the Twilight Zone.

Back to money and stocks. Where are we going now? WHERE ARE WE GOING NOW?!!!! Isn't it time for a pullback? If we want one, that means ipso facto Mrs. Market or Mr. Market will play coy with us and do everything in her power to fool us. Small wave, large wave, small pickins, larger pickins, the right entry point. !!!!!!!!! It's time for a slide down, almost, after a short jag down (now) then a medium jag up, then a nice, healthy slide down. I think. Now what does Mr. Market think?

 

[rcknfrewld]

Mr. Market thinks that bailing out broke countries is a reason to be optimistic. When Mr. Market realizes that enabling broke entitlement countries will break everyone involved, he will crash.

 

[KevinD]

View attachment 14896

Originally Posted by malyla
From JTH's thread

No money lost - just time.

A lot of us have goals for where we would like our ending balance at retirement to be to allows us that magical 60%-80% of salary so we can pay to live and enjoy our retirement. To reach that goal, a constant growth is required. If that growth is zero, then that year of zero growth did not contribute to reaching the final growth and you either get more aggressive, hope the market is like the 2003-2007 where 20% B&H growth was the norm, wait another year working to reach your goal, or retire with a lower payment.

Buy and Holders (B&H) went to zero growth over the last 10 years of the market. If you moved to safety in 2008, then you saved yourself time to retirement as you didn't go to zero growth. I lost all my profits in the 2001-2003 recession as I was a buy and holder. Looking at my retirement growth curve during that time had my balance decrease down to the contribution balance which said that I could have hid my money under a mattress (assuming the gov gave me the matching contributions) and been even. Maybe I had more shares for the 2003-2007 ride up (as I bought those shares as a B&H from 1990-2001) than I would have if I had just purchased them in 2003, but if I had been a swing trader back then and sold in 2001 to rebuy in 2003, I would be ahead on the growth curve instead of where I am now due to being a B&H. I lost time being a Buy & Holder. Swing trading does take time, but time spent now saves me time in meeting my retirement goal.

The weakness I see with DCA is that you have to be lucky to retire when the market is at the height to take full advantage of DCAing. If you are unlucky enough to retire when the market has a reset to decadal lows, then you have made no profits at best and lost some savings at worst. That was why I looked into the business cycle TA to see where the business cycle was predicted to be in 2020 to 2025. That wasn't giving me a warm fuzzy feeling so I changed to a trend/swing trading TA system and have heavily relied on the members of this board to learn how to do this type of trading to build my nest egg. My goal is to avoid loss, for loss takes 1.5% more time to recoop than no loss. Once again, it's a loss of time to your goal (10% growth curve for me).

There another problem with DCAing our TSP balance that everyone just ignores. It only works to accumulate shares if you never sell those shares. The moment you make an IFT, those shares in whatever fund you have are sold at that COB price and new shares are purchased in whatever fund you requested at those same COB prices. This resets the shares to the current price and you gain and lose depending on what price you originally bought those DCA'd shares at. If you bought at the bottom and sold at the top, hurrah, but if you bought all the way down and sold at the bottom, then you lost money at the time you made your latest IFT. So DCAing is at it's best only when you become a buy and holder at the bottom of a market low and ride it up to a market high. If you continue to be a pure B&H'er, then you risk riding and buying down the next market deflation. It's like buying a ticket on a roller coaster. You committed to staying for the whole ride, as a B&H, with all it's ups and downs and if you are lucky with the timing, you retire on a high market swing and rack in the retirement money. Alternately, if you want to retire but the market is at a low, you wait and retire later when the market swings up again. Time is a non-renewable resource.

I prefer a ride where I miss the water falls (canoeing/kayaking) by carrying my fund around them and getting back in the water for the gentler movements of the market (metaphor doesn't work that well as water still moves downhill and I'm looking for the uphill climb of the market, but you get my drift - miss the falls).

Not even Birchtree is a pure B&H. He does IFT at times (at least from his thread over the years) which locks in gains and losses of whatever DCAing was performed. Just some food for thought.

Another post in my "single posts" folder :cheesy:

 

[malyla]

I'm back for a day or two. Had to drop off the grid for awhile and may need to do so again soon.

I'm currently in the S fund looking for a top in the wave 5 secondary wave. I'll start the new year in stocks looking for that top. Also, I want to see if the inverted H&S is real

Good luck everyone and have an amazing start to 2012.

 

[nasa1974]

Good luck everyone and have an amazing start to 2012.

Thanks Malyla you too.

 

[malyla]

I'm currently in the S fund looking for a top in the wave 5 secondary wave. I'll start the new year in stocks looking for that top. Also, I want to see if the inverted H&S is real

Oops! I was sure the breakout was going to be up and today. Well, hopefully Tuesday will tell. If down, I'm out. If up, needs to be big for the breakout - maybe a two day event? GL everyone

 

[malyla]

Going to safety. May be early, but I have learned not to be greedy. (1st IFT of the year).

 

[malyla]

All the upside gaps I have been following have been filled. I didn't risk that these would be filled so quickly so for Jan 2012 I have been sitting in G. Using an IFT and going to F as I expect that we will now start to fill the downside gaps. Looking for an intermediate bottom to trade.

Good Luck everyone

 

[malyla]

I have been looking at the gap analysis sometimes used in TA. It just says that gaps get filled usually sooner than later. There are some gaps since 2000 that are still open that are worrisome if all gaps are filled. I looked at compq and spx initially and have the following gaps to the downside:
1170-1180 (compq 10/2002)open
1223-1230 (compq 10/2002)open
1280-1290 (compq 3/2003)Filled March 09
1800-1825 (compq 7/2009)open
905-910 (spx 7/2009)open
1018-1019 (spx 9/2009)open
2200-2210 (compq 9/2010)open
2250-2262 (compq 9/2010)open
2480-2505 (compq 11/2011)open
2620-2625 (compq 12/2011)open

The spx gaps usually get filled sooner rather than later but these gaps have been open for over two years. Does anyone have information on how and when gaps gets filled?

 

[malyla]

Forgot to mention that SPY only confirms the open gaps on Sept 2009 and Nov 2011. SPY closed the Oct 2002, July 2009, Sept 2010 and Dec 2012 gaps.

 

[malyla]

We are stalled at the last upside gap - 9 days so far on the spy. I just don't see more upside momentum right now. Uptrend and Daneric make a convincing argument for a retracement to at least just above 1263. Capital preservation is the order of the day. Staying in F, but itching to get into equities for a good start to 2012.

 

[malyla]

I was looking at the ADR (AMEX Depository Receipts) and the EFA for more gap analysis to explain this market. The gaps have been filled as of Tuesday last week with a new gap from Fridays action, but there is something interesting in the ADR plot. Can anyone explain what happened in September 2011 that caused the gaps on the $ADR chart. Was there a change in the way these deposits were tallied or does this reflect some other market change?

 

[malyla]

The ADR definitions can be found here An Introduction To Depositary Receipts

I use it in relation to the efa to determine the international market directions as it affects the US stock market.

 

[malyla]

I keep thinking that gaps get filled, especially the $compq gaps which go all the way down to 2480 since Dec 2011. However, this market is going higher on low volume and I have to wonder how long this will last. We are two weeks away from the Greek bond payment, so maybe the market keeps getting manipulated higher until then? I have missed out on all of Jan/Feb gains due to my TA research, which seems to be at odds from the reality of this market. So I'm wondering if I should capitulate and get into the market for a couple of weeks. Just what could be negative enough to send this market down between now and March 1st?

Truly puzzled right now. G.L. everyone

I was looking at the ADR (AMEX Depository Receipts) and the EFA for more gap analysis to explain this market. The gaps have been filled as of Tuesday last week with a new gap from Fridays action, but there is something interesting in the ADR plot. Can anyone explain what happened in September 2011 that caused the gaps on the $ADR chart. Was there a change in the way these deposits were tallied or does this reflect some other market change?

 

[malyla]

I am throwing in the towel, capitulating, switching to a different system...

100% S today.

My TA worked for 2011 but it is not working this year so far. I also did not know about Operation Twist until Jan 2012, but still didn't trust this new FED manipulation which had me missing some nice gains (made some money in F though). So I'm going to go into the market on this dip and see what happens into April.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Khotso]

I am trowing in the towel, capitulating, switching to a different system...

100% S today.

My TA work for 2011 but it is not working this year so far. I also did not know about Operation Twist until Jan 2012, but still didn't trust this new FED manipulation which had me missing some nice gains (made some money in F though). So I'm going to go into the market on this dip and see what happens into April.

Good luck everyone.

Let's hope you're the lucky charm Malyla! I've been spinning wheels since late December too!

 

[Scout333]

I am trowing in the towel, capitulating, switching to a different system...

100% S today.

My TA work for 2011 but it is not working this year so far. I also did not know about Operation Twist until Jan 2012, but still didn't trust this new FED manipulation which had me missing some nice gains (made some money in F though). So I'm going to go into the market on this dip and see what happens into April.

Good luck everyone.

Not sure whether to get back in today or tomorrow. Hedge fund managers selling to lock in gains for the quarter?? Always seems so obvious but I usually am a day late. Catch a small bounce tomorrow and in for April? Decisions Decisions??

 

[malyla]

Not sure whether to get back in today or tomorrow. Hedge fund managers selling to lock in gains for the quarter?? Always seems so obvious but I usually am a day late. Catch a small bounce tomorrow and in for April? Decisions Decisions??

Uptrend and Bquat's posts helped me make the decision for today. If the S&P breaks below the line Bquat has defined, I'll run to safety. I hate losing money, but until I get my mojo back, I feel I need to do something :worried:

 

[Bquat]

Uptrend and Bquat's posts helped me make the decision for today. If the S&P breaks below the line Bquat has defined, I'll run to safety. I hate losing money, but until I get my mojo back, I feel I need to do something :worried:

Thanks for the honorable mention and next to Uptrend in the same remark even better. He is one I watch closly. Thanks

 

[malyla]

Let's hope you're the lucky charm Malyla! I've been spinning wheels since late December too!

It is frustrating. I still don't understand how buying long-term bonds by selling short-term bonds (Operation Twist) could float the market like it has since September.:worried: