Malyla's Account Talk

[malyla]

Thanks for the honorable mention and next to Uptrend in the same remark even better. He is one I watch closly. Thanks

You are welcome. I look at your charts every time I visit. Good stuff.

 

[Khotso]

It is frustrating. I still don't understand how buying long-term bonds by selling short-term bonds (Operation Twist) could float the market like it has since September.:worried:

I think they basically just drove the price of long-term fed bonds up, ergo "interest" rates down which is good for the economy (mortgages, car loans, etc.).???

 

[malyla]

What is now happening in the markets feels similar to the time of the Russian financial crisis in 1998. 1998 Russian financial crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The dollar dropped >8% and the SP500 dropped from 1200 to 950 before the crisis was over. The result was that the ruble was devalued by half, wiping out half of peoples savings and later causing the reissue of ruble notes that removed three zeros from the denomination (R100,000(old) = R100(new)).

If Greece leaves the Euro Union, I have to wonder if this will cause a similar crisis in the world markets. Right now I suspect that Greeks and others are buying dollars to hedge against the possibility that the Euro will go through a crisis over Greece. What will happen when/if the drachma comes back or the crisis is averted?

Seems to risky to stay in the market. If Monday shows more down side, I'm going to take my loses and go to safety.

 

[MaStA]

Seems to risky to stay in the market. If Monday shows more down side, I'm going to take my loses and go to safety.

I'm with you there...

I sold my big ole 36 shares of TNA yesterday for a loss of ~$300 and I'm glad that I don't have to keep worrying about it even though that is a big loss to swallow for a guy like me who doesn't have a lot of investment experience. I'm also negative in my TSP now and I'm ready to cut the losses there as well before it continues to plummet.

 

[malyla]

Getting out tomorrow. Hopefully it's an up day.
100% G fund COB 5/23

 

[malyla]

Looking for an opportunity to recoup my 5.4% loss on my last trade. This market has me baffled

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Looking for an opportunity to recoup my 5.4% loss on my last trade. This market has me baffled

Many of us are in the same boat. Almost seems like luck is in, analysis is out...

 

[malyla]

Many of us are in the same boat. Almost seems like luck is in, analysis is out...

Ok, I'm going to try to use analysis once again:suspicious:

The transports tested the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern but did not break through today. Looking for another test of the neckline to tell me the direction of the markets. Then need confirmation on a second training day. This means I'm out until Wed next week.

Come on markets! Momma needs 5%! <roll the dice>:toung:

 

[malyla]

Continuing with yesterdays try at getting my analysis mojo back, I am thinking that if the transports can't break above 5140, we will be retesting the December lows before this correction runs it's course.

 

[malyla]

Continuing with yesterdays try at getting my analysis mojo back, I am thinking that if the transports can't break above 5140, we will be retesting the December lows before this correction runs it's course.

So far, the transport peaked above the neckline, but have since retreated to just below the neckline of the H&S. Who will win today? Could go either way. The anticipation is killer.

 

[malyla]

The transports closed right at the neckline yesterday. And today is not looking good for a break above the neckline (5140ish). I'm staying out until the correction completes.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

The transports closed right at the neckline yesterday. And today is not looking good for a break above the neckline (5140ish). I'm staying out until the correction completes.

What if this correction is only getting started? Would you short?

 

[malyla]

What if this correction is only getting started? Would you short?

I only 'play' with my TSP account. Since I'm risk adverse and I like sleeping well at night, I tend to want to stay out of the market as much as possible only going in for a quick 4% gain in 3-7 day trade, then out until I see another opportunity. It worked for me last year, but I'm having 'issues' this year.

I do believe that the transport will go down to the December lows before we get a election season rally The European woes only add to my assessment for this scenario.

So, safety for now. G.L. Everyone

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I only 'play' with my TSP account. Since I'm risk adverse and I like sleeping well at night, I tend to want to stay out of the market as much as possible only going in for a quick 4% gain in 3-7 day trade, then out until I see another opportunity. It worked for me last year, but I'm having 'issues' this year.

I do believe that the transport will go down to the December lows before we get a election season rally The European woes only add to my assessment for this scenario.

So, safety for now. G.L. Everyone

Makes sense. Good Luck to you too. I am having "issues" too... Lets see how we do

 

[malyla]

I'm going in for a short 2-4 day play at recouping my 5% loss. 100% S COB June 1.

 

[malyla]

I was looking at the ADR (AMEX Depository Receipts) and the EFA for more gap analysis to explain this market. The gaps have been filled as of Tuesday last week with a new gap from Fridays action, but there is something interesting in the ADR plot. Can anyone explain what happened in September 2011 that caused the gaps on the $ADR chart. Was there a change in the way these deposits were tallied or does this reflect some other market change?

The Nov 2011 gaps in the ADR and EFA have been filled. I went all in for Monday.

 

[malyla]

Based on my e-wave analysis, I have the market in an advancing wave 5 with a target on the EMW at ~760. So, I think I'm in for a longer trade than the short trade I have initially planned. Looking for a 20% ride over the next 3 months into Sept.

 

[malyla]

I'm expecting a short term top at about 690 on the EMW then some chop down to the December lows before we get a run-up to 760 before the election. If my e-wave count is wrong, it's going to hurt but that's why it's called gambling....um, I mean that's why it's called investing in the stock market.

I realize that this contradicts my previous assertion that we are in a wave 5 uptrend, but the last few days have me rethinking the end of wave 4 (downtrend) which may take us to ~610 before the wave 5 truly begins. So 690, then ~610, then 760.

G.L. Everyone.

 

[malyla]

<squinting>Is that a black swan on the horizon? Will Egypt tear up it's peace treaty with Israel? I have no idea where Morsi stands on the big issues.... read on.

Islamic presidential candidate promises democracy in Egypt - CNN.com

If it lands, look out below.

I'm going to bring up the four letter word now.... I HOPE I'm wrong and that black flying speck is just the usual crow of disillusionment. I can work with that...:suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

<squinting>Is that a black swan on the horizon? Will Egypt tear up it's peace treaty with Israel? I have no idea where Morsi stands on the big issues.... read on.

Islamic presidential candidate promises democracy in Egypt - CNN.com

If it lands, look out below.

I'm going to bring up the four letter word now.... I HOPE I'm wrong and that black flying speck is just the usual crow of disillusionment. I can work with that...:suspicious:

That is either a mighty big crow, or a flock of crows, or our very own Black Swan.:cheesy:
I'm actually more concerned about our 'Black Swan President' taking flight and mucking things up. If we are to 'lead from behind' than let the Israelis 'lead from the front'. I know that will not be pleasant for their Islamist neighbors, but I'm about done being concerned with their endless plight. Just get the cameras on the action.:blink: