Some negative comments on the site

[nnuut]

Don't give up Tom you have all of us behind you! Except for Big Mouthed No Nothing interlopers! You're doing a great job, and returns this year are better than the last two years, that means something and it's not because this is an easy bull market. Look at May and the first Quarter, it fooled me or I'd have 16% YTD. We are learning more every day, one of these days they will close us down because our returns are TOO GOOD! There are ex members that are selling their service because they finally caught on, or say they have, why didn't they tell us? When we get it we will share, even with the interlopers. Keep the FAITH Brother!
Norman

 

[coolhand]

Thanks CB. I never believed it before, but sooner or later we all learn that no good deed goes unpunished.

I sincerely thought I started this site to be of some assistance to TSP'ers who were in the dark about investing. Even if I made 0% I thought people will come to learn, and to help each other.

Well, that has been true but since I started this site, TSP has blocked me from linking to their site, contacted my agency's investigation branch and had me investigated, I was given a two week suspension (later reduced to one) for being on the message board using a gov't PC, and now the director of the TSP would like to see me shut down. Can't say I'm not a little paranoid about something going on behind the scenes now. All this while, in my mind, I thought I was doing something positive. Shows how much I know.

It's ridiculous Tom. We're all responsible for our own retirements now and every investor, whether a buy and holder or a market timer (a name that has a decidely undeserved negative connotation) is contantly reminded about the volatile and risky nature of the stock market. Even for a buy and holder nothing is guaranteed. I know a couple of government employees who retired shortly after the 2000 crash who lost a significant chunk of their portfolio just before they retired. I can cite many other examples as well.

It seems to me that we have some folks who will always be around who want to take control of someone else's views. There is absolutely nothing illegal with what we do and the TSP allows us to manage our accounts now on a daily basis (unlike a few years ago). But some want to save us from ourselves. How self serving and presumptuous is that?

For anyone out there who has some kind of vendetta against our activity let me tell you something. By design our government retirements have evolved from a CSRS type retirement where we earn a given pension to a FERS type retirement where we have to plan and fund AND MANAGE our own retirements.

YOU CAN HAVE YOUR OPINION, BUT IT'S NOT YOUR DECISION!!! BACK OFF!!!

 

[Birchtree]

And what will happen if Nancy Pelosi comes to power. It is Democrat against Republican - we are in a culture war. I wish they would offer me a conversion to a defined contributi on plan - they can stick that annuity. But they don't trust me to be smart enough to manage my own retirement. Bunch of bone head liberals.

 

[coolhand]

But they don't trust me to be smart enough to manage my own retirement. Bunch of bone head liberals.

Yeah, what he said!

 

[FundSurfer]

I think it would be fun to take 30-50 frequent posters here, enter them into a database, and track their returns over the next two-five years and compare them against the appropriate risk-adjusted TSP portfolio. For example, if you spend 10% of your time in the G fund and 13% in the C fund we would compare your returns to a static asset allocation that was 10% G, 13% C etc rebalanced once a year. To be valid, all 30 would have to stick with it for the full time period, and to prevent cheating we would require allocations be posted by the proper time each day. Most of the machinery is already set up on this site. This is a question which can be answered. May I have 50 volunteers and someone willing to do all the number crunching? Tom-it wouldn't require any more time than you're already putting in to this site.

We already have quite a few folks who will have 2 years of being tracked at the end of this year. I would suggest that you come back in several years and run the analysis. The spreadsheet with the data is posted regularly. See this thread.. Tally Thread

Edit: I'll see if I can dig something up for you on the market not being random. Should be fairly easy. Just look at the long term S&P.... it has a positive slope.... but, I'd bet you'd rather see something on a day to day basis....

 

[BigJohn]

As a double newbie...new to the federal government and new to looking ahead to what I will need to retire, the TSP was initially pretty confusing. I stumbled across TSP.talk about a month ago and SLOWLY began to educate myself. The key words being EDUCATE and MYSELF...I have enjoyed the personalities that come through the strings almost as much as the information provided. I appreciate the site and all of those that take the time to contribute; I have passed it along to most of my friends who have almost unanimously found it darn helpful.

In the end, what I do with my allocations and my money is my choice...the information provided is a tool that I use to make my choices. Where all this anger comes from about this site is a tad confusing... it would be different if Birchtree was using Svengali like powers to mesmerize unwitting watchers into the C fund...against their will... I truly don't understand it...actually, if I have followed him closely, if he had those powers he would be keeping them OUT of the C???

Thanks again to all for the info...from a REAL newbie.

BigJohn

 

[Birchtree]

BigJohn,

Welcome to the cash bar. Birchtree is a peculiar type of fellow, he likes to run in front of the train and finds it refreahing on occasion to step out into oncoming traffic. His epithet will read he preferred to be a lonely bull rider and he loved riding his Ducati in the up and down cycles. He would rather no one noticed the C fund because as a contrarian he would be forced out once everyone else piled in. So far there is plenty of room. Regardless of the fact he says so many nice things about the transition to large caps. His favorite game is bear hunting. His wife tells him almost every day to wipe the bull manure off his shoes before he enters the adobe.

Beware the sucker's rally. Elaine Garzarelli says we're in a new phase of a bull market that's ready to breakout on the upside at any time. I sincerely believe her. I'm on the road to Dow 12,600 by the end of the Holidays.

 

[FundSurfer]

Yale economics professor is a market timer.

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/news/shiller/rjs_02-07-29_wsj_timing.htm


2 economics nobel prize winners discuss the market (one was the author of Random Walk...)
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=651&CFID=1371669&CFTOKEN=95533437

Funny how both try to make predictions on market direction. Read it closely and you will see what I'm talking about. They even act on those predictions. If the market was truely random, that would not be possible.

Basically there are patterns that can be taken advantage of within the "randomness". They also say that once a pattern is recognized it goes away.

Now for my own bit of wisdom on the subject. If you take a random walk around town, you will find yourself on streets. From one intersection of the street to the next intersection there is predictability. When you get to the intersection there is unpredictability. The key is to use the space between the intersections where there is some predictability.

 

[FundSurfer]

Desperado, let me add one more thing, that I've said before. The rich use Hedge Fund managers. I find it hard to believe that they (the rich) are all stupid.

 

[airlift]

I agree with you, even though I have not read the link yet. But your conclusions as to predictability are part of my basic lifestyle, so, I infer that you are spot on! --

Yale economics professor is a market timer.

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/news/shiller/rjs_02-07-29_wsj_timing.htm


2 economics nobel prize winners discuss the market (one was the author of Random Walk...)
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=651&CFID=1371669&CFTOKEN=95533437

Funny how both try to make predictions on market direction. Read it closely and you will see what I'm talking about. They even act on those predictions. If the market was truely random, that would not be possible.

Basically there are patterns that can be taken advantage of within the "randomness". They also say that once a pattern is recognized it goes away.

Now for my own bit of wisdom on the subject. If you take a random walk around town, you will find yourself on streets. From one intersection of the street to the next intersection there is predictability. When you get to the intersection there is unpredictability. The key is to use the space between the intersections where there is some predictability.

 

[airlift]

I second you! --

<sigh> But you are suggesting that I buy one fund or mix of funds and sit on them long term. I don't want to and perhaps others don't want to! I have a lot of ground to make up and I don't have a large salary to seed my account with. I do not have the luxury of putting $15k a year in my account without it taking a huge chunk out of my paycheck. If I did I would probably lower my risk and go the buy and hold route. I have a goal…………..$1 million in my TSP account within the next 20 years on a mid-$40k salary, I may not get to spend it but at least I am trying. Next year I may be in position to put $15k a year in, again I’m trying.

As for risk.......I don't know how many times the phrase "risk/reward" has been used on this MB by me and other, it has to be a lot.

As for people following others………that is their choice. LIVE WITH IT! Cigarettes and alcohol are bad for you but I’m not making anyone smoke or drink and I’m not asking anyone to follow me. Educate yourselves, make your own decision, and then live with it. If you what to beat the market………time it. If you’re happy with what the market gives you buy and hold.

I don’t give a crap if you’re a buy and hold guy or a market timer just don’t beat you drum so loud I can’t concentrate on my game. I got crabby with Birch because of the constant droning not because he was wrong. He is probably right. I just want to get there faster than him. I have a goal and I will use what works at the time. Let other people try if they want to.

<the “other mike” steps off of his soapbox and wearily takes his seat>

 

[Show-me]

How about this one. All the chart analysis, trend analysis, theory like the DOW Theory, wedges, cups and handles, bump and run, technical indicator, market analysis, trading strategies, and on and on and on. Why have them? Are those for the buy and holders or the timers or both? How about the financial show, magazines, books, and real time ticker. STOP EVERYTHING........we need to get the networks to get rid of the live feed from the market floor! No updates until the end of the day, that way we can all be in the dark and buy and holders. LOL Ooo look and the end of that hyper-link e-d-u-c-a-t-i-o-n.:toung: Have fun with it........I am.:nuts: Risk/reward, risk/reward, risk/reward, risk/reward! Cuckoo for coco puffs! I'm just being silly again, Friday with three days off and all.:ban:

http://stockcharts.com/education/

 

[Show-me]

I need a drink.......yea just one.:nuts: :blink: :laugh: Have a good weekend everyone and do your homework.

http://stockcharts.com/education/

 

[TiCKed]

Since everyones had a say....Why not ME!

Some random thoughts.

1) Watching and listening to the people here, I have little doubt that market timing can work. BUT...It's not an easy or part time endeavor!

If you put 100 random people into a room, gave them $1000, and told them to trade to their hearts content, I have no doubt that Desperado and friends would be gratified to learn that the vast majority lost money. If that's the basis for their claim, I'm 100% behind them.

But for those who really put the WORK into it...read...chart...learn from mistakes...take careful consideration of all the information available...I think they DO have an edge.

2) That ain't me. I'm a buy and holder at heart, and hang around here to see where the wind blows. My real hope is to miss that one big drop a year. Nothing more, nothing less. That's my style, and this place STILL is useful to me, so don't go claiming this place is for "market timers" only.

3) You need to be careful using the current returns of posters as evidence of market timing success.
- Some don't post moves. Success breeds posting...failure probably prevents posting.
- I'm beating all of the L funds...but nobody should claim me as an example of market timing. I'm just invested more aggressively than L2040!
- And don't forget those people who do post, and are behind the L-income fund. We need to be honest with ourselves.

My two cents....and worth every penny.

 

[nnuut]

Man, I love this stuff! You people are really digging deep and have done your homework, I haven't. As long as I have your help how can I lose?
Norman

 

[Spaf]

This thread reminds me of the two cats that took a short cut through a dog show!............

 

[tsptalk]

Some don't post moves. Success breeds posting...failure probably prevents posting.

Good point.

 

[Anton]

Give the dead horse one more whack:

Desperado, TSPTalk readers, I am a first time poster, but I have been watching this site for a couple of years. I come here as part of my daily routine for the same reasons as all of you do - education and hearing others' perspectives. I really do like the website, and the information is interesting, but it does lean to the side of active (vs. passive) investing.

I have wanted to post something similar to Desperado's now notorious comment for a long time, but didn't know how to phrase it without sounding critical, contentious, or derogatory. It has received quite a vicious response from readers. Frankly, I was very disappointed on how quickly the tone of some responses turned negative. If we are all here to learn, unless you know it all, a reader should consider what others say. While the tone of Desperado’s comment may have sounded negative to some you, he does bring up a valid point: the site seems to encourage a highly active investment style.

As some of you have mentioned, market timing is a method used by some investors in attempt to beat the market. Its effectiveness it widely questioned. (Wikipedia’s page for market timing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing). I have dabbled in market timing myself and luckily was successful. Many of you are convinced that if you do your homework, active portfolio management will likely boost your returns. I am convinced the majority of market timing is a result of luck and statistically insignificant. I do not believe this blindly, and I do not consider my self a pawn of Wall St either. I want to boost the returns of my investments just a much as the next guy, but there are much better strategies than market timing.

For example, if effective market timing is a result of skill, How do several amateur investors who compete in the monthly tallies outperform the paid service run by a hedge fund guru? Do they know something he doesn’t, or have they had a few lucky trades? Believe what you want, but hopefully you might agree that predicting who will beat who next month is anybody’s guess. To me that seems like an unreliable and unproven strategy. For those who are happy to see RevShark cheerleading the market timing approach you might consider that folks like you who subscribe to his newsletter(s) put money straight in his pocket (and whoever else gets a cut) whether he produces a return or not. In contrast the few of us on here pitching passive investing have absolutely nothing to gain (or lose) from convincing market timers to change their ways.

As mentioned, the debate between passive and active portfolio management has been raging for a long time and probably won’t end anytime soon. For every prestigious economist that is referenced as a market timer, you could name another one who preeches passive investment strategies. (Perhaps even a few Noble Prize Laureates)

For those who are seriously interested maximizing investment returns I would suggest exploring strategic allocation passive investing, A good starting point for information would be http://indexfunds.com/ (The “12 Step Program” for active investors, a free online book available on that website is a must read).. I believe many of the quotes used by Desperado can be found here.

Learning about investing and how to manage wealth is great, but to be fair to yourself, make sure you are getting a balanced education.

I have one additional remark. Those of you who are projecting TSP average returns of ~20% for the future and beyond, I might suggest developing a contingency plan if that falls through. I don’t mean to sound like a cynic, but I wish making money was that easy! With great likely hood you will soon agree with me.

I honestly hope discussions like this continue. This type of debate is exactly why I like tsptalk.com.

Respectfully,
Anton

 

[rokid]

Aton,

Thank you. Outstanding post!----Rokid

 

[Show-me]

All great posts and good debate.