Some negative comments on the site

[Desperado]

I have been lurking on this site from time to time over the last year. I mean to offend no one by this post. But I have made a few observations that I feel would be valuable to those who frequent the site. The site caters to the idea of jumping from fund to fund in a continual effort to "beat the market" and get ahead. It espouses the idea of managing your TSP on a daily basis. Although there are no costs associated with this tactic due to the tax-deferred, commision-less nature of the account, it is still an ineffective investment strategy. Of course, anyone paying attention to the TSP Talk published returns could easily realize this.

TSP Talk is trailing all of the L funds (except the most conservative one) and is trailing a simple 20% in each fund allocation for the year, as well as for 4 of the last 6 years according to the site's own calculations. Even worse, those calculations are less than accurate. By my calculations using the annual returns listed on the site (which may be just as inaccurate) the actual overall return 2000-2006 is <1% per year on average. Hardly indicative of success. In comparison to the simple 20% strategy rebalanced once a year, the TSP Talk strategy has underperformed by more than 2% per year. For those who think this is small potatoes, compare an 8% return to a 10% return over 30 years. My calculations (using a 15K contribution per year) show a final difference of over $800,000 at retirement!

I'm somewhat of a simpleton, but it seems to me that you are doing your readers a great disservice to encourage them to adopt a trading mentality with their TSP account. Six years of solid data (compiled by you) has shown that your tips cannot beat a simple buy and hold approach. Worse yet, these same people may take the rapid-trading tactics learned here to a taxable account where the fees and taxes will eat their return alive.

It just seemed like someone ought to point this out. The TSP is too great of a thing to be wasted, but use it like it was meant to be used, as a long-term, buy and hold investment placed into an appropriate strategic asset allocation.

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances.

 

[Oldcoin]

Welcome to the board Desperado.

I don’t think many of the members of the TSP/Talks MB activities mirror that of TSP Talk. I think when you refer to TSP Talk you are referring to Tom. Tom does a very good analysis of the market. Also provided is a long-term approach to the TSP and in the short term. You should consider both the daily advice and the Longer Term Market Outlook and Allocation provided on the site. No one should blindly follow advice without first educating themselves and reaching there own conclusions.

The board contains members who have a DCA long term approach and those with many trades. I think the members cover the entire spectrum of activity. Each has their own investment goals, many beat the L Funds.

It is easy to point to the last few years’ bull market with a buy and hold position and come to the conclusion that it is the proper approach to investing in the TSP. If the market conditions indicate a significant pullback wouldn’t you try to avoid it?

So what good is TSPTALK.COM…….education. Then you should make your own decision on how to invest.

 

[ebbnflow]

Mike Causey, welcome to the board! Didn't Tom just write about the L-fund a couple days ago. Please read it again, and see what he really thinks about it.

 

[James48843]

I regularly watch TSP talk, and learn from other's comments. No, I don't follow in line with Tom very often. Sometimes I do, when it makes sense to me to do so. Other times I am invested completely opposite his moves. Tom has his investment style. And Tom, and many others, have contributed to helping me develop my own. I dont watch TSPTALK to follow Tom's every move. Good heavens, that isn't what TSPtalk is meant to do.

What has TSP talk done for me?

Well, for starters, it's given me a great deal of appreciation for factors that affect the markets that I hadn't been aware of before. I've learned about following trends, and spotting small indicators that tell me when things are changing. And it's given me insight to what other TSPers are thinking, and doing. And it's given me the courage sometimes to stay in the market when I would have otherwise pulled back, and taught me when to pull back when I otherwise would have stayed in.

Results? So far in 2006 I have a 21.2% return rate. Not bad at all. And beating what I could have done as a "buy and hold" strategy too. Yes, I've missed a few moves, but I've made some good ones too. I'm satisfied with the things I learn here. Heck, it doesn't even cost much to learn here compared with having a professional financial planner try and mess with things.

Sorry, but for me, TSP talk makes sense. And dollars.

Thanks Tom for setting this up.

 

[mayday]

Why would learning about the market and what makes it tick be an ineffective investment strategy. I have close to doubled the amount in my account because of the keen insight I have gleaned from this websight and its knowledgable inhabitants. I want to thank Tom for this most insightful and effective tool for all of our retirement accounts. I want to thank all the members for all their input. Desporado I see that your membership started 10/01/06 try hanging around a bit longer and you might just like what you see. Mayday

 

[Griffin]

In comparison to the simple 20% strategy rebalanced once a year, the TSP Talk strategy has underperformed by more than 2% per year. For those who think this is small potatoes, compare an 8% return to a 10% return over 30 years. My calculations (using a 15K contribution per year) show a final difference of over $800,000 at retirement!

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances.

Desperado,

The TSP talk account is just one of more then a hundred accounts on this site and your absolutely correct when you calculate that every little % plus or minus, over a career adds up to big $s. Many of us are doing significantly better then the highly coveted 50%/50% S/I, bull year allocation. The numerous success stories that are available on this board show that a timing strategy can significantly improve one's gross retirement.

Tom continuely takes criticism every time TSP talk is down and is heralded as a hero when the market is in the toilet and the account is up. Your argument for the 2006 return would not have held a drip of water in May and June. Tom has admitted that he can not be nimble with the TSPTalk account because of the enormous amount of work that he has to do with the e-mail alerts and changes to the board. Personally, I don't think he should worry about keeping the front page upto date and getting all the e-mail alerts out. I believe he should stick to a daily update of the board and not worry about intraday changes. If the whole process is holding his account back, then folks are probably not going to follow the account anyway. I believe that if someone is going to adopt a timing strategy, they need to be more involved then responding to an e-mail. If you follow the site long enough, you will see people disappear from the board for these reasons and the reasons you mention.

Your last comment is why the TSP style social security system Bush was pushing never got off the ground. Most people would do themselves damage if left to their own devices. They are not willing to go the distance to educate themselves and understand the market drivers. I recently saw a commercial for one investment system that spoofs on the fact that with a click of a button you can loose your childs education fund, etc... It is cliche that people will loose their money by investing poorly, because their greed will outweigh their common sense. How many episodes of "flip that house" have ended with amatueurs barely turning a profit following a nightmare event?

The bottom line is that most people are better served with not touching their money and letting a professional system handle it. You can only say this so many tens of thousands of different ways, among the thousands of investment techniques out there. However, savvy, intelligent people can and will make significantly more money using the information available on this board and their own sweat effort. If you want more out of your TSP then a buy and hold strategy can provide, I cannot think of a better way to create the synenergy that is required to do that then this board. Where there is a will, there is a way and this board is the way.

 

[dell]

Desperado Mike: TSP is an educational tool. You and you alone are responsible for how you use it. Any investment decisions you make are solely up to you. It is different from the IBD or WSJ simply in that we have the opportunity to interact and exchange ideas via dialogue.

Good luck. You will be successful over the long term with your strategy.

Dell

 

[Show-me]

Just a reminder. Nobody said you have to follow anyones allocations. Just be informed. If your happy in a L fund great, just know there are other options.

"Our mission is simple: We want to maximize our Thrift Savings Plan retirement accounts and help others along the way.
We do this by allocating our TSP assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns. "

 

[fedgolfer]

Also remember there are people that frequent this site but don't post their trades and use the site for educational purposes. True, some may not beat the L funds, but I guarantee you there are some that have posted better returns than the top people that are being tracked. I'm also willing to bet there are people that frequent this site that have beat the S&P ever since daily IFTs were introduced and estimate the accounts to grow greater than 18% a year, some probably low-mid twenties for an entire carreer. Depends on your goals... this site serves a great meeting ground for those that want to take the time to learn, plan, actively trade and retire with monthly annuities much larger than their salaries at the time of retirement (if you don't think this is possible than you haven't done the research). I agree that 99% of people shouldn't swing trade their retirement unless they take the time and can do the research. For those that love working more than playing and want to work well past ther MRA, then fine, the L funds are for you... I won't push trading on you, but don't push the apathy on me either. If you had $100k in cash sitting in the corner of a room would you watch or trust it to grow on its own?

 

[FundSurfer]

A closer look at the numbers.

If you took Tom's returns and say that you started out with $50,000 in your account at the beginning of 2000 and added $10,000 per year. If we only compound annually, at the end of 2005 his account would have $128146. If you did the same thing with the C-fund you would have $115608. That is and account which has 10.8% higher return. Why compare to the C-fund? Because the S&P 500 is considered the bench mark in the investing world. This is the number that all fund managers compare themselves to. That is a good track record.

Even worse, those calculations are less than accurate. By my calculations using the annual returns listed on the site (which may be just as inaccurate) the actual overall return 2000-2006 is <1% per year on average.

You need to recalculate. I've gone through his calculations with a fine tooth comb and they are correct. It is my bet that you do not understand the spreadsheet. I'd be happy to help you understand the calculations. Again, his return beats the S&P 500.

Worse yet, these same people may take the rapid-trading tactics learned here to a taxable account where the fees and taxes will eat their return alive.

I'm glad you bring this up. It points out the big difference between our TSP accounts and other investment vehicles. This points out the fact that we want to manage our accounts ourselves that we need advice which is taylored to our system. We have no fees for transfer, we also have a noon deadline. Both of these are important items to consider. As to your pointing out the fees and that they will eat you alive, remember that this group of investors is not the norm. We have educated ourselves and therefore the simple logic you propose does not hold.

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances.

I'm 9% ahead of the C-fund. 27 members who have been posting since the beginning of the year are ahead of the C-fund. 37 members are ahead of the 20% each fund allocation. There are a number people below those numbers. The reason for this is that not all of the people who are havign their returns tracked have very aggressive methods. Quite a few are retired and have capital preservation and risk managment as a goal. That is part of the beauty of a diverse site like this one. We are not a one size fits all.

It is up to each person to determine their own level of risk that they are willing to assume. For those that want to assume more risk than the buy and hold strategy, that is for us to determine. I recommend the L-funds to my friends at work because most people do not want to take an active role in their own retirement. I and the others here are NOT most people. We represent a very small percentage of the federal workforce.

You also need to look beyond just the TSP managment aspect of this message board. There is much more here on many different aspects of being a federal employee. Stick around and read a little more and I think you will find a diverse group of folks, some of whom have the same ideas that you do.

 

[Birchtree]

Golly, do I even dare open my mouth. Why not, this is my place and I accept responsibility for anything I say. As most on the board know my feet are currently planted in the C fund. I don't regard the buy and hold approach as my mantra or religion - it satisfies my needs today to help me be an accumulator of this fund. I personally don't like to get involved in percentages because they are so misleading. But anyone who chooses an L fund to accumulate wealth for retirement is doing themselves a disservice. Placing a 20% allocation in five funds or however you do it makes you too thin to really accumulate any shares - I mean you'll eventually get to retirement but you will be substantially behind your peers and a lot older. TSP talk is a great educational forum and as one learns there is one paramont fact that stands out - no risk no reward. I set my goal at 40,000 shares and I can hardly wait until I can start using some higher caliber amunition. I'm fortunate indeed to have this plan available and to have these multitudes of different folks as compatriots. But Mr Desparado should remember that this is totally voluntary and we won't force him to stay, but he is welcome. And he is welcome to direct his criticisms because the bottom line it's all about money. You have the opportunity to make yours the way best suited to you and others have the same potential. It's a big world out there and we are just a small piece of it - but I'm glad to have a home where I can blather on about how I see my investing virtues.

Dennis - permabull#1

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I have been lurking on this site from time to time over the last year. I mean to offend no one by this post. But I have made a few observations that I feel would be valuable to those who frequent the site. The site caters to the idea of jumping from fund to fund in a continual effort to "beat the market" and get ahead. It espouses the idea of managing your TSP on a daily basis. Although there are no costs associated with this tactic due to the tax-deferred, commision-less nature of the account, it is still an ineffective investment strategy. Of course, anyone paying attention to the TSP Talk published returns could easily realize this.

TSP Talk is trailing all of the L funds (except the most conservative one) and is trailing a simple 20% in each fund allocation for the year, as well as for 4 of the last 6 years according to the site's own calculations. Even worse, those calculations are less than accurate. By my calculations using the annual returns listed on the site (which may be just as inaccurate) the actual overall return 2000-2006 is <1% per year on average. Hardly indicative of success. In comparison to the simple 20% strategy rebalanced once a year, the TSP Talk strategy has underperformed by more than 2% per year. For those who think this is small potatoes, compare an 8% return to a 10% return over 30 years. My calculations (using a 15K contribution per year) show a final difference of over $800,000 at retirement!

I'm somewhat of a simpleton, but it seems to me that you are doing your readers a great disservice to encourage them to adopt a trading mentality with their TSP account. Six years of solid data (compiled by you) has shown that your tips cannot beat a simple buy and hold approach. Worse yet, these same people may take the rapid-trading tactics learned here to a taxable account where the fees and taxes will eat their return alive.

It just seemed like someone ought to point this out. The TSP is too great of a thing to be wasted, but use it like it was meant to be used, as a long-term, buy and hold investment placed into an appropriate strategic asset allocation.

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances.

just plain ignorance...Causey suggests "leaving your money to the pros"...hahaha...I tried that and lost a lot of money...Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, a few private 'mangers'...HA..I have to laugh again. Each one has a different strategy, aside from gauranteeing themselves 2-3% managment fee, and commisions on their products. Do they really care about your money a FRACTION as much as an individual does. We've been led like sheep, or misled, to believe that ''professionals' exist. It's easier to stick your head in the sand.

 

[tsptalk]

Desperado - why don't you come to your senses?

This is an argument that has gone on for a long, long time and I doubt we'll change each others' mind, but a least people can hear both sides of the story.

First off, I make it very clear that I am not a professional (I'm a computer programmer) and that no one should blindly follow what I do. I tell everybody my allocation for accountability purposes; As in, this what I am doing, and I this is why I am doing it. The email alerts came as a suggestion from our readers a few years ago.

I also make it clear that most people should be diversified and / or be in an L-fund. I recently wrote about this in a daily market commentary. Market timing is not for everyone (maybe myself included .)

Your conclusion that because my return from 2000-2005, which handily beat the return of the S&P 500, should have beat a 20% in each fund diversified allocation does not take into considertion that those 6 years included the worst bear market of our lifetime. The G and F fund were the top performers funds over that period, so should we conclude that they are the best investment vehicles for us? If I had tracked my account during the late 1990's, and I really wish I would have, it would have been more apparent that a diversified account would have lagged an aggressive account. By aggressive I mean all in or all out type of investing. The data are too small to draw a conclusion.

By the way, I am concerned that you believe the calculations are inaccurate in our spreadsheets. I'd like to know what you found because I would want to fix that right away.

TSP Talk is for educational purposes and it is free. If you want to talk about the services that we do charge for, your argument loses effectiveness. The return of the TSP Timing Newsletter that we have provided since February is beating the return of every fund, including the L-funds since its inception. The return is more than double that of the diversified account. It is nearly double that of the C fund, and it is beating the S fund by nearly 11%. See the data here. James "RevShark" Deporre is one of the best market timers in the business. Now that I have seen what he can do, I have considered following him more closely and stop posting my allocation. After all, he's the pro, I'm the pro-grammer.

RevShark has asked me to post, on his behalf, his response to the buy and hold / market timing debate, which I will do so below. This is not a new subject to him.

Thanks for your input. I believe this site is much than posting a return and having people follow it. It is a forum for these types of discussions which, until TSP Talk came online, was not possible on this scale.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Shaggy]

Although I rarely post on this site I have to say I truly disagree with Desperado.
Have you ever heard the saying, Knowledge is power.
I'm not even going to argue the %'s presented because I believe that most people on this board are smart enough to know that statistical data can be presented to support just about any position.
And to be honest the %'s really are not the point.
I'm not sure what to think about Desperado. Is he truly concerned about our retirements and people being let astray of what is best for them because we are not intelligent enough to be responsible for our own futures, or is he against people educating themselves and no longer being SHEEP in the flock.
Unfortunately, financial advisers, politicians and many others make there living off SHEEP, and therefore have a vested interest in keeping people "dumbed down". For this reason anybody that advocates people closing their eyes and investing, not taking a proactive role in their future, is viewed in a skeptical light by me. Not that they necessarily have bad intentions but that they assume I am not intelligent enough to make these decisions and need someone to do it for me.
This board not only gives information from Tom and the many other intelligent people that frequent the board but also provides links to important mainstream news articles and some not so main stream. How can anybody be against one educating themselves, doesn't make sense.
To answer my own question; because to many educated people with there own ideas and desires are dangerous to the status quote.
The larger TSP gets the more of an impact it has or could have on the market and I belive that is beginning to scare some people. Not that there is any grand conspiracy, but the more buy and holders there are out there the more predictable and less volitile the market is.

 

[RevShark]

The folks who criticize market timing are almost always beholden to Institutional Wall Street which does it best to discourage us foolish individuals from trying to manage our own investments. The big funds and brokers want control of our cash and if we are empowered to control our own investments the chances re they may no longer be able to profit as well.

There is no doubt in my mind from years of successful investment and familiarity with other investors that market timing can be done in a logic fashion. In most the cases it is just plain old common sense and not a form of fortune telling. The primary value of market timing lies in its much less obvious function as a money management tool. Market timing helps you protect your precious capital by providing a framework in which you cut losses and take profits.

Markets tend to trend and run in cycles. The fact that they are volatile and not in a completely random fashion makes it possible to develop rules to protect capital. The biggest losses that investors suffer generally come when they sit idle during ugly downtrends or when they fail to take gains after a strong uptrend. They are told that market timing is futile so they do nothing. If they simply had a method which required them to cut exposure in a downtrend and to only rebuy when a new uptrend developed the vast majority would be far ahead.

As the subscribers to our service know we are up 9.35% since we began in February and presently are 100% cash. But what makes us feel very good about our results is that they were achieved with much less risk than a buy and hold strategy.

RevShark

 

[mlk_man]

Good to hear your in cash also.

 

[nnuut]

Alright!! You tell them REV!!:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

No cash for me guys. I'm in up to my eyeballs. Even the best will sometimes misplace their luggage and this train is leaving. Someone let me know how long he stays in cash - bet he's back in real soon.

 

[tsptalk]

Here is a post that RevShark is putting in his Street.com / RealMoney.com blog...
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/revsharkblog/10312701.html


I provide a timing service for employees of the federal government that have the ability to invest retirement savings in a vehicle called a Thrift Savings Plan. The TSP is very similar to a 401k and allows participants to invest in a five broad vehicles: International stocks, the SP500, the entire US equities market and cash.

There has been increased debate among TSP participants and advisors lately about the logic of market timing. There have been a number of radio debates lately on the issue and I want to weight in. Many of the ‘professional’ advisors say timing is futile. I disagree and these are my comments on the issue which I think have some application to all market players.

In my experience the folks who criticize market timing are almost always beholden to Institutional Wall Street in some way. They want to discourage us foolish individuals from trying to manage our own investments. The big funds and brokers want control of our cash and if we are empowered to control our own investments and make our own decisions the chances are they may no longer be able to profit from us as well.

There is no doubt in my mind from years of successful investing and familiarity with other investors that market timing can be done in a logic fashion. In most the cases it is just plain old common sense and not a form of fortune telling. The primary value of market timing lies in its much less obvious function as a money management tool. Market timing helps you protect your precious capital by providing a framework in which you cut losses and take profits.

Markets tend to trend and run in cycles. The fact that they are volatile and not in a completely random fashion makes it possible to develop rules to protect capital. The biggest losses that investors suffer generally come when they sit idle during ugly downtrends or when they fail to take gains after a strong uptrend. They are told that market timing is futile so they do nothing. If they simply had a method which required them to cut exposure in a downtrend and to only rebuy when a new uptrend developed the vast majority would be far ahead.

As the subscribers to my TSP timing service know we are up 9.35% since we began in February and presently are 100% cash. But what makes me feel really good about those results is that they were achieved with much less risk than a buy and hold strategy.

RevShark

 

[grandma]

GRIFFIN WROTE: (sorry, I can't make the multiple quote thing work...)
"Tom continuely takes criticism ... Tom has admitted that he can not be nimble with the TSPTalk account because of the enormous amount of work that he has to do with the e-mail alerts and changes to the board. Personally, I don't think he should worry about keeping the front page upto date and getting all the e-mail alerts out. I believe he should stick to a daily update of the board and not worry about intraday changes. If the whole process is holding his account back, then folks are probably not going to follow the account anyway. I believe that if someone is going to adopt a timing strategy, they need to be more involved then responding to an e-mail. If you follow the site long enough, you will .... "
Griffin Quote end

Desperado - why don't you come to your senses?
First off, I make it very clear that I am not a professional (I'm a computer programmer) and that no one should blindly follow what I do. I tell everybody my allocation for accountability purposes; As in, this what I am doing, and I this is why I am doing it. The email alerts came as a suggestion from our readers a few years ago....
...Thanks for your input. I believe this site is much than posting a return and having people follow it. It is a forum for these types of discussions which, until TSP Talk came online, was not possible on this scale.
Thanks,
Tom

it occurs to me, Tom, that this is the perfect impetus for you to drop the Daily E-mails, make a square with the information the reader can go to `tools' and subscribe to your thread for an automatic e-mail of a new post....like the rest of us do for keeping up with our Buddies. Then while there, they can check over in the Forum front page & read the comments if they so desire. If they are really interested in the Daily Reading, they will go there on occasion on their own; they can make it their Home Page, for goodness sakes !!! Forget this listing, etc, from your end. You have a 40 +hour work week, you have a a home life, and ball games to go to.