Some negative comments on the site

[FUTURESTRADER]

A question for everyone else: Why are you mad at Desperado? He is merely giving his opinion. Can't we think that he is wrong without getting our feathers ruffled? He thinks we are making a mistake and spent time and effort to try and convince us of his way of thinking. He comes across as intelligent and his willingness to come back shows he is willing to debate.

I guess I've become too PC. Maybe you just thought it was Mike Causey sneaking in and that is why you reacted thus?....

he sounds like a 'buy and hold' evangelist to me. No skin in the game

 

[robo]

Desperado,

First of all let me say for most folks in TSP I agree with you completely. I also think it's very good that you pointed out timing the market is hard to do and most should not try it! I do hope you keep posting. I found your comments valuable as I do many other on this board.... Your advice is sound!

But I think we need to define MarketTimer... Would you call Bob Brinker a Market timer? That's the name of his newsletter. He is and a darn good one.

When the CNBC crew were yelling buy, buy, during the bubble Bob Brinker gave a sell signal and saved me a bunch... Some of the Market Timers on the Board are conservative timers and go in and out of the G Fund into other funds only when we have a very good set-up..

Bob Brinker recommended in his newsletter this year to buy the S&P under 1250, good advice for Market Timers. Now he has not given a sell, but I don't like the risk reward of the market so I'm back in the G Fund... You see I don't try and beat the C Fund, I'm trying to beat the G Fund. No Greed here just give me around 7% a year and I'm one happy Market Timer. Now that does include Bull and Bear Markets...

Anyway, I agree with you and most should not try and beat the market.

But why do people smoke, drink, play slot machines, buy at market tops and sell at the bottoms. Those are the folks that should be in the L Funds... I'll bet some folks are moving out of the G Fund this week into the C Fund because the CNBC folks are yelling buy, buy, buy. However, folks on this board aren't falling for it...


"Over a 12.5 year period, 224 of 237 market timing newsletters went out of business." indexfundsadvisors.com

Marketimer Reviews

Timer Digest named Bob Brinker's Marketimer as the number one stock market timing investment letter for the ten-year period through December 31, 2005 with a total return of 215% versus 172% for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index. Hulbert Financial Digest ranks Bob Brinker's Marketimer number one for long-term stock market timing through January 31, 2006.

The Marketimer stock market timing model applied to the Wilshire 5000 Index has generated a compound annual rate of return of 14.2% for the past ten years, versus 9.1% for the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Marketimer's stock market timing model has generated a compound annual rate of return of 15.3% for the past fifteen years, versus 11.8% for the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.

A get his Newsletter and he recommends the same folks you do.

Take Care!

Good trading/timing/investing my friend...


http://www.bobbrinker.com/portfolio.asp

http://www.bobbrinker.com/books.asp

http://www.bobbrinker.com/links.asp

 

[Birchtree]

Alright now back up two feet - don't even think I wrote that all for him.

 

[FundSurfer]

Here is a question. If market timing doesn't work, then why do the rich use hedge fund managers?

 

[tsptalk]

Nice write up desperado, but I too have grown bored with this debate. You twisted the numbers and made assumptions (such as that trade twice a week) to support your argument. I can't argue with that.

 

[robo]

Here is a question. If market timing doesn't work, then why do the rich use hedge fund managers?

Good point!

Hedge Funds are L Funds for the Rich... Market Timing does work, but not for Joe Six pack.. Most are just too emotional, sell at bottoms after losing 25k during a big sell-off and buying today because the CNBC crew are yelling buy... Most folks on this board are not average, and some of or readers are getting smarter everday by reading debates like we are having now... My wife has over 200k in her accounts and could not tell you what the S&P is...
The L Fund fits her well...

So lets hope more Despersdo's join the board....

 

[nnuut]

Re: A few more comments from gurus-didn't fit above

"Among the 160 or so newsletters the HFD monitors, the market timing recommendations of only 10 have beaten the stock market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis." Mark Hulbert 1-18-01

"As you can probably sense, we're not keen on market-timing. It just doesn't work." Morningstar's Course 106

"Over a 12.5 year period, 224 of 237 market timing newsletters went out of business." indexfundsadvisors.com

"I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding." Charles Schwab

"Buy and hold is a very dull strategy. It lacks pizzazz and doesn't inspire much admiration at cocktail parties. It has only one little advantage: It works, very profitably and very consistently." Frank Armstrong, Author

"For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy." Carol Gould, New York Times

"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." Bill Bernstein

"Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." Rick Ferri, Author

"Only liars manage to always be 'out' during bad times and 'in' during good times." Bernard Baruch

"It must be apparent to intelligent investors who if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market-time) he would become a billionaire so quickly he would not find it necessary to sell his stock market guesses to the general public." David L. Babson, famed investor

"There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." Larry Swedroe, author

"Don't trade in and out of funds. Stay invested.-- Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it's also less work." Eric Tyson, author Mutual Funds for Dummies

"Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator" W. Scott Simon, author

"Don't waste money subscribing to investment letters or expensive services.--Besides their cost, there is the problem that they are liable to tempt you into buying, and scare you into selling." Andrew Tobias, author

"If you buy--and then hold--a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run." Jason Zweig, Money magazine

"The facts suggest that successful market timing is extroardinarily difficult to achieve." Burton Malkiel, author of Random Walk

"If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous." Barron's Guide to Making Investment Decisions

"Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night." Michael Leboeuf, author of The Millionaire in You.

"Stay the course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said 'Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you." John Bogle

Man Newbie you crack me up, how much are you making this year in the TSP?

 

[robo]

Bottom line this a great place to learn if you are a Market Timer or a buy and hold investor!

I am what I am and that's a Market Timer!

 

[Desperado]

Have you tried to do any of your own research, Desp, or just cutting and pasting?

Would you like my reading list? Or my list of publications? What exactly are you saying here?

BTW, what has been your average annual return the last 6 years trading futures? Honestly. Have you even kept track?

 

[Birchtree]

Man, I can't believe they're asking for another me. For the grace of Allah I hope he enjoys being stoned for preaching heresy. Nah, it's really not that bad. And afterall we got Harvey to take care of the cleanup. It's home to me regardless - now if I can find out who copt my ice enema and get back in the good graces of the Sugar(BEAR)life would be back to normal. Do we get a blast off tomorrow like the shuttle? You bet - count on it.

Dennis - permabull#1

 

[fabijo]

A question for everyone else: Why are you mad at Desperado? He is merely giving his opinion. Can't we think that he is wrong without getting our feathers ruffled? He thinks we are making a mistake and spent time and effort to try and convince us of his way of thinking. He comes across as intelligent and his willingness to come back shows he is willing to debate.

I guess I've become too PC. Maybe you just thought it was Mike Causey sneaking in and that is why you reacted thus?....

Yup. I just thought it was Mike. Sorry Desperado. You definitel are entitled to your opinions. It's just that your comments came at such perfect timing, because a few of us have been discussing comments made by someone on the radio and on his blog. The things you said sounded just like him.

Welcome to the board. I hope you stay with us, even after this huge thread started VERY quickly!

 

[Oldcoin]

Wow! What a way to introduce yourself to the Message Board. Sure hope he/she sticks around. There sure won’t be a shortage a reading material.

Welcome again Desperado.

 

[Beavis]

Say hello to the New Guy. Talk about making an entrance. Glad to have you though.

 

[mlk_man]

A question for everyone else: Why are you mad at Desperado? He is merely giving his opinion. Can't we think that he is wrong without getting our feathers ruffled? He thinks we are making a mistake and spent time and effort to try and convince us of his way of thinking. He comes across as intelligent and his willingness to come back shows he is willing to debate.

I guess I've become too PC. Maybe you just thought it was Mike Causey sneaking in and that is why you reacted thus?....

His last statement in his original post got me. Plus I know a lot of people who lost money in 2000-2002. Including me. It won't happen again because I'll NEVER buy and hold again...............

 

[tsptalk]

I am still a little amiss about the numbers being thrown around to make the case that being diversified is better than playing the market. I am defending what appears to be the argument that I am not beating the diversifed account since I started keeping score in 2000.

The argument is that my 15.2% return from 2000 to 2005 was below the 22.3% of being invested 20% in each fund. Yes, last year my return lagged and I went from beating the diversified return from 2000 to 2004 to dropping behind.

But during the 2000-2005 period, my return of +15.2% handily beat the return of the S&P 500 which was -6.8%. That's a 22% edge. But desperado would say that you should compare your return to a diversified account and not strictly to the S&P 500 if you have other investment options. I'm not so sure that is true since most money managers' returns are compared to the S&P, but let's take a look...

That 6 year period from 2000-2005 included a severe bear market and considering that, it may be too short of a period to draw any conclusion. During a bear market the diversified account will obviously beat the market because you will never have more than 60% in the stock funds. Since 2000, we have had only one year where the S&P finished above the 11% average. So what happens if we look out further than those 6 tough years? On our site, the data goes back to 1988 and you will notice that the return of the S&P 500 during that 18 year period (1988 to 2005) was +626%, while the return of a diversified account was +392%.

I don't think many would disagree that the market is going to beat a diversified account in the long run. My goal is to beat a diversified account and the S&P 500. In the short run anything can happen. If the markets struggle, the diversified account will outperform. During strong bull markets, stocks will outperform. The only way to beat stocks is to be out of them when the market goes down.

I believe we have a couple of strong years ahead of us in the stock market but I am currently preserving my capital so I can take advantage of a better buying opportunity that I believe (and a little hope) will present itself in the coming weeks.

I rambled a bit, but see? I can play with the numbers too. I hope it made some sense.

Tom

 

[mlk_man]

BTW, I don't consider myself a market timer, although sometimes I do try to predict the future, which always gets me in trouble. Like Warren Buffet, I do not know what the market will do 3 months from now, 6 months from now, or even next week. What I do consider myself is a market reactioner. When the market goes up, jump in. When the market goes down, jump out. You'll suffer the occasional whip-saw, but in the end you'll come out ahead. Develop a strategy and stick to it.

Most of us have only been posting here a year or two. Check back in another four..................

BTW, Warren Buffet trades currencies. You better do some sort of market timing if you do that..........................:blink:

 

[grandma]

Thanks grandma. Don't forget the art gallery. My wife reminds me everyday when I'm not there to help out.

Tom, I did forget the Gallery, totally - I just realized I don't see its icon any more - where'd it go?
Out of sight, out of mind, you know - :blink:
Who knows, we may want to have the first RFE of TSP meeting there -

 

[tsptalk]

No time grandma. The gallery is still alive and kicking but the item of the day took too much time.

But come on down the first Friday of every month for a nice reception. We can hold our meeting then

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Would you like my reading list? Or my list of publications? What exactly are you saying here?

F'Trader: Keep your publications and reading lists. I don't believe anything I read and only half of what I see Actually, I did read, on the TSP web site:

"The F fund offers the opportunity to earn rates of return that exceed those of money market funds over the long term (particularly durings periods {TIMES, TIMING, my emphasis} of declining interest rates), with relatively low risk." Hmmmm...sounds like a timing strategy to me.

Let's see, something about timing the declining dollar in there too..ohhh here it is...the I fund: "Earnings consist of gains and losses in the prices of stocks, currency changes relative to the U.S. Dollar, and dividend income." Furthermore, "..There is risk of loss if the EAFE index declines in response to changes in overall economic conditions (market risk) or in response to increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (currency risk)." My cutting and pasting ain't so bad either .

As for your buddy Warren Buffet, I believe he got hammered shorting the U.S. dollar last year. Bad 'timing' for Mr buy N hold.

Desperate-Odd-O ("that's funny, I don't care what you say" Larry the cable guy):BTW, what has been your average annual return the last 6 years trading futures? Honestly. Have you even kept track?

F'Trader: Of course I've kept track, that's the whole point of learning for one's self, versus taking the easy way out and just accepting your position in life, doing as your told, not being afraid to ask yourself the tough questions. Playing it safe. Being exploited.

I've trader futures for only about four years primarly in managed accounts, and actually have maybe broken even, but have learned a great deal.

I did make a considerable amount of money or a considerable return in the late 90's on IPOs, by going outside the norm, experimenting, opening over twenty accounts in Etrade, FBR, and others and putting in for allocations of an IPO before they began trading. A type off lottery system where you request an allocation of a number of shares and you may or may not get that allocation.

 

[Birchtree]

Futurestrader,

You any relation to Kenny Rogers? Just wondering.