2025: A Year for the Active TSP Investor?
Today we’re taking a look within. Instead of analyzing the broader market or TSP fund performance, we’re turning the spotlight on the TSP Talk AutoTracker community itself. Our focus? How often our members have moved their money this year—and what impact that has had on their returns.
We’re setting aside which funds people are choosing. This isn’t about C, S, or I-fund debates. It’s about strategy through activity: how many Internal Fund Transfers (IFTs) each member has made in 2025 and the performance outcomes of those decisions.
The chart below breaks down the 784 most active and engaged AutoTracker users—those who’ve logged in recently and are consistently tracking their accounts. We grouped them by how many IFTs they’ve made in 2025 and then averaged their returns within each group:
| Frequency Bucket | User Count | Avg Return (%) | Min Return (%) | Max Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (0) | 441 | -1.66 | -6.31 | 10.03 |
| Very Low (1) | 74 | -2.63 | -17.57 | 6.21 |
| Low (2–5) | 140 | -1.29 | -20.47 | 11.39 |
| Moderate (6–10) | 115 | +0.44 | -15.71 | 16.46 |
| High (11–17) | 14 | +1.83 | -7.66 | 9.28 |
It has Paid to be Active
The top-performing group? The 14 members who’ve made 11 or more IFTs this year. They’ve achieved the best average return of any group. That group is up 1.83% in a year where the C-fund is down –3.3% and the S-fund is down –6.3%. (As of 5/8/25)
Though our moderate group is also worthy of praise. These members have made 6 to 10 IFTs and include 7 of the 8 members outperforming the I-fund (+10.0%) in 2025.
Passive Investors are Struggling
The largest group, those who made 0 IFTs, averaged negative returns. The same story goes for the “Very Low” (1 IFT) and “Low” (2–5 IFT) groups. In this volatile year, staying still hasn’t been a winning move.
That said, there are always exceptions. Shoutout to cmalinowski, who’s pulled off a +11.4% return using only 3 IFTs—proving that strategy still beats frequency when done right.
2025 has been a tough year to sit still. Those who adapted have been rewarded—especially those who’ve actively managed risk and opportunity without overreaching. While more trades don’t always equal better performance, this year, being nimble has paid off.
Whether you’re a hands-on market timer or a thoughtful rebalancer, this kind of insight into your peers’ behavior can help sharpen your own strategy.
Keep an eye on these active TSP Talk Investors with a subscription to the Last Look Report. We provide the latest IFTs among our community up to 30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline with a daily Newsletter. We also get you up to date with the market morning action and conversations on the TSP Talk Forum.
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Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
Writer of the Last Look Report
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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