Some negative comments on the site

[fedgolfer]

guys and gals, seriously, let's stop wasting our time and energy on someone that that can't see our point of view. We're the open minded ones and will reap the benefits. If Desperado really wants to learn (which I doubt is his real intent), he'll do so with an open mind. It's obvious he's approaching this as a disbeliever and doubts we can make money in it the way we do. Let's get back to makin' money.

Desperado, if you really want to learn, follow the top leaders on the board for several months, and do some research on managing risk and asset allocation... unless you don't believe in those concepts either? Seriuosly, do your research before inciting... you are way off base thinking Tom's intent in providing this website is anything but altruistic.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I don't get it, Birch? Should I be folding on this guy and walkin away?

 

[Birchtree]

Futurestrader,

The Gambler starring Kenny Rogers. Did he fold his chicken restaurants?

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I have been lurking on this site from time to time over the last year. I mean to offend no one by this post. But I have made a few observations that I feel would be valuable to those who frequent the site.

Desperado, did you really observe all these things or could it be you are dwelling in the percepton as reality paradigm, whereby what you feel about something becomes the reality in lieu of the facts.

The site caters to the idea of jumping from fund to fund in a continual effort to "beat the market" and get ahead. It espouses the idea of managing your TSP on a daily basis.

No .... my silly (eyes all squinty from the wafting smoke of a self rolled cigarett) friend. The site caters (I say provides a forum) to participants who jump from fund to fund continually. Tom has a continual daily effort to analyze the condition of the market and evaluate his allocation. I have observed little to no espousing.
Tom brings an excellent array of market analysis tools to us daily with an equally adroit commentary on the meaning and relevance of same.

TSP Talk is trailing all of the L funds (except the most conservative one) and is trailing a simple 20% in each fund allocation for the year, as well as for 4 of the last 6 years according to the site's own calculations. Even worse, those calculations are less than accurate. By my calculations using the annual returns listed on the site (which may be just as inaccurate) the actual overall return 2000-2006 is <1% per year on average. Hardly indicative of success. In comparison to the simple 20% strategy rebalanced once a year, the TSP Talk strategy has underperformed by more than 2% per year. For those who think this is small potatoes, compare an 8% return to a 10% return over 30 years. My calculations (using a 15K contribution per year) show a final difference of over $800,000 at retirement!

It is a fact that market timers struggle to out perform the idexes in sustained rising markets. It is also a fact that most mutual fund managers under perform the indexes in up and down markets!
---Please find a way to worn those millions. ...better pack a lunch.

I'm somewhat of a simpleton, but it seems to me that you are doing your readers a great disservice to encourage them to adopt a trading mentality with their TSP account. Six years of solid data (compiled by you) has shown that your tips cannot beat a simple buy and hold approach. Worse yet, these same people may take the rapid-trading tactics learned here to a taxable account where the fees and taxes will eat their return alive.

Of what tips do you speak? Tom routinely advises to use his analysis to draw ones own conclusions about how best to position their TSP accounts. Tom goes out of his way to show multiple implications from a given analysis.

It just seemed like someone ought to point this out. The TSP is too great of a thing to be wasted, but use it like it was meant to be used, as a long-term, buy and hold investment placed into an appropriate strategic asset allocation.

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances.

Bullseye, you self proclaimed simpleton:

Please use this site like it was meant to be used!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Looks like they were bought out by Nathans

 

[Spaf]

I think I can say that there is no agreement with Desperado!
With all that has been said, futher comments would be like beating a dead horse!
Why not, let the thread just die out!

 

[Birchtree]

Well thank Allah and my lucky stars he is not the Machinist Mate or you'd be really busy with your chores. When are you going to get your ankles wet again?

 

[azanon]

I fully agree with the original poster. Ive had my percentages set at 45%S, 45%I, and 10%F for a few years now, and i'm just smoking most of you who study this day in and day out.

Just a casual research on market timing at highly respected sites will support the very common knowledge that market timing is a loser's game. And we do have an English word to decribe those very few outliers who, from time to time, actually do beat market averages. The word is lucky. Simple random mathematics can explain why a small percentage do sometimes beat the averages.

Azanon

 

[ChemEng]

Wow... We must be very lucky to have so many lucky outliers in one place!

 

[azanon]

Wow... We must be very lucky to have so many lucky outliers in one place!

When you're winning, everyone hear's about it (read: they post it). When you're losing, no one does (exception: your cheif in arms, Tom). Those that run casinos know this, and hence they thrive like crazy.

heh, you guys dont even need those loud bells and sirens on top of the slot machines to be fooled into thinking most are winning by doing this.

To be quite frank, i think its irresponsible of leadership here to be supporting market timing. Frankly, i'm wondering when the leadership is going to begin to feel self-accountable for costing these people their hard-earned money. Surely, this is also a moral issue. I'm an atheist, but even I have some baseline morals.

 

[mlk_man]

Hey az, come back during the next bear market and talk to us okay?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I fully agree with the original poster. Ive had my percentages set at 45%S, 45%I, and 10%F for a few years now, and i'm just smoking most of you who study this day in and day out.

Azanon

lol...sounds like some of my golf buddies who 'say' they shoot low 70's.

 

[mlk_man]

lol...sounds like some of my golf buddies who 'say' they shoot low 70's.

I do!! But for some reason, I start screwing up after the 9th hole...........:nuts:

 

[azanon]

Hey az, come back during the next bear market and talk to us okay?

And exactly when is that supposed to be? I bet you're so arrogant, you actually think you know.

 

[Birchtree]

Now I can't dance but on occasion I can surely shake the Birchtree booty. You wanna see?

 

[TGA]

[ I bet you're so arrogant,

Sounds like the pot calling the kettle black.........

 

[Beavis]

That's what's great about this country. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. The first statement on my account thread (and others) says to follow at your own risk. This is what I CHOOSE to do. Other people are entitled to their own choice. I will live with the consequences of my actions, others will have to live with the consequences of theirs.

 

[azanon]

Desperado's motive was probably the same as mine; to clear our conscience. It just didn't feel right for me to see you guys losing money while trying to time the market. You've been told now, so i feel much better already.

 

[mlk_man]

It means, oh holier than thou, how much did you lose in 2000-2002 while sitting with your buy and hold strategy? Let me guess, you saw it coming and got out then back in around 2003 right?

There's a place for people like you here. It's called "Carnac's Corner".........

 

[azanon]

It means, oh holier than thou, how much did you lose in 2000-2002 while sitting with your buy and hold strategy? Let me guess, you saw it coming and got out then back in around 2003 right?

There's a place for people like you here. It's called "Carnac's Corner".........

I've bought and held predominately stocks since i started investing in the mid 90s. Again, you're the one that tries to time and see when things are coming, so you must be talking about you again.

I don't know who the heck Carnac is, but I've already been well aware of you for some time. When it comes to bad advise here, you have no equal.