Some negative comments on the site

[mlk_man]

I'm sure some would disagree, but whatever.

 

[tsptalk]

Both strategies are viable. I think it's a matter of comfort level.

Many of the people quoted by desperado obviously don't believe timing works, and that's fine. They probably came to that conclusion because they didn't have success trying it. But ask someone like Cramer, RevShark, or any successful hedge fund manager.

RevShark's trading portfolio (non-TSP) on his website is up 32% this year.

 

[FundSurfer]

Desperado's motive was probably the same as mine; to clear our conscience. It just didn't feel right for me to see you guys losing money while trying to time the market. You've been told now, so i feel much better already.

Thanks Azanon, I feel better to.

Now I going to get something off my chest too.

ALL you newbies! (...and veterans too...)

1.) Please trade with paper before jumping off the diving board. If you can't do well on paper, you need more education before attempting to time the market.

2.) Don't follow anyone on this site! None of us are professionals. You know nothing about us. If you want to learn what we know, ask, but don't assume we know it all. I spent a year trading on paper before beginning to actually make moves in my account. The first six months were very humbling for me.

3.) To everyone who thinks you can't market time. Realize that you are probably right for almost everybody. Also realize that the market does not move randomly. If it does not move randomly, then you can take advantage of that if you can learn the trends. Granted this is risky.

4.) Moving your money in an attempt to raise your returns does raise your level of risk. You are risking your retirement. You need to be aware of your risk and making educated decisions.

There, I think I said what every adult should have already realized, but I feel better having said it.

 

[nnuut]

Amen brother Fundsurfer!!

 

[Show-me]

DANG IT!!! I QUIT!!! You’re all right! I'm still confused and should be setting in the G fund like I was over two years ago. I should go back to being frightened, stupid, and cowering in the corner of my TSP room wishing I had the knowledge........no the courage to take charge of my own finances. How could I have been so lucky the last two years? Better stop now before the luck runs out. We can’t be responsible for our own actions. It’s ludicrous!

Better yet I’ll quit my job, leave my wife and family, throw caution to the wind, and become completely dependent on the governments entitlement system. O were is communism when you need it?

Just a little humor to lighten the mood. Ever notice when the market seems rocky the MB gets a little pissy? I have.:laugh: :ban:

 

[fedgolfer]

Desperado's motive was probably the same as mine; to clear our conscience. It just didn't feel right for me to see you guys losing money while trying to time the market. You've been told now, so i feel much better already.

Azanon and Desperado, you must have seen too many late night market timing infomercials, "Everything you need to know about trading on one three minute 8-track tape for 20 easy installments of 19.99!!!" Yes, that's exactly what TSP Talk is about... mmmmm, that's the ticket. Your astuteness has enlightened us all. Y'all should have bought the Soloflex instead.

 

[nnuut]

Azanon, how ya been, been a long time sense I heard anything from you. You were posting in 2004, if I remember correctly? Did you ever track your allocations on TSPTalk? If you did you probably didn't do very well or you wouldn't be here slamming what we are trying to do. You of all people know that timing the market is (they say) almost impossible, that's true, but we think you can improve your returns by adjusting your allocations when the market conditions change. This in it's self isn't that easy to do, in fact I'm still working on it and haven't mastered it to this day. You know its MYMONEY and I’ll do with it what I want. Not doing too badly this year and hope to do better next year. Come on sign back on and post your returns on the tracker, you can join our (very proud) long "C" fund Guy BirchTree. BirchTree is one of us and we respect his knowledge and his buy and hold technique, to each his own. It would be great to hear more from you.
Norman

 

[Desperado]

Thanks Azanon, I feel better to.

Now I going to get something off my chest too.

ALL you newbies! (...and veterans too...)

1.) Please trade with paper before jumping off the diving board. If you can't do well on paper, you need more education before attempting to time the market.

2.) Don't follow anyone on this site! None of us are professionals. You know nothing about us. If you want to learn what we know, ask, but don't assume we know it all. I spent a year trading on paper before beginning to actually make moves in my account. The first six months were very humbling for me.

3.) To everyone who thinks you can't market time. Realize that you are probably right for almost everybody. Also realize that the market does not move randomly. If it does not move randomly, then you can take advantage of that if you can learn the trends. Granted this is risky.

4.) Moving your money in an attempt to raise your returns does raise your level of risk. You are risking your retirement. You need to be aware of your risk and making educated decisions.

There, I think I said what every adult should have already realized, but I feel better having said it.

It is actually nice to hear someone acknowledge that moving your money around raises your level of risk. It is also nice to hear someone say that market timing doesn't work for almost everybody. Our only disagreement is whether the few for whom it does work are lucky or good. Thus my suggestion to keep careful track of your returns (and this site does a great job of that) for a long period of time (I'd say 10 years minimum) prior to concluding that you are a skilled market timer. I'm not saying they don't exist, just that they are much more rare than the posters on this board would suggest.

Fund surfer...what evidence do you have that the market is not random? Please don't cite personal experience or the record of some market timing guru, I'm looking for a valid academic study. Something you can put up against Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Anything.

Tom..if you are so impressed with RevShark's ability, why aren't you following it? + 32% would beat the socks off of what you're posting for the year.

Thanks for the support Azanon. I actually find market timing schemes to be very interesting. I have found several that work very well. At least until I start "forward-testing" them. But I think the available evidence at this time shows clearly that >95% of investors are better served by a long-standing static asset allocation than by attempting to time the market. I'm not cocky enough to believe I'm in the special 5%. We'll see. I'm definitely not up 32% this year. Perhaps RevShark is one of the few, the proud, the successful market timers. But I'll require a much longer track record before I start copycatting him.

Incidentally, of the market timing schemes that seem viable, 90% have their advantage over a passive static asset allocation eliminated by the cost of switching (both commissions and taxes.) The other 10% seem to be more of a trading every few months, rather than every few days as the more active timers here seem to do. I think that is just reacting to market noise, which IMHO, is random.

I think it would be fun to take 30-50 frequent posters here, enter them into a database, and track their returns over the next two-five years and compare them against the appropriate risk-adjusted TSP portfolio. For example, if you spend 10% of your time in the G fund and 13% in the C fund we would compare your returns to a static asset allocation that was 10% G, 13% C etc rebalanced once a year. To be valid, all 30 would have to stick with it for the full time period, and to prevent cheating we would require allocations be posted by the proper time each day. Most of the machinery is already set up on this site. This is a question which can be answered. May I have 50 volunteers and someone willing to do all the number crunching? Tom-it wouldn't require any more time than you're already putting in to this site.

 

[Desperado]

Azanon and Desperado, you must have seen too many late night market timing infomercials, "Everything you need to know about trading on one three minute 8-track tape for 20 easy installments of 19.99!!!" Yes, that's exactly what TSP Talk is about... mmmmm, that's the ticket. Your astuteness has enlightened us all. Y'all should have bought the Soloflex instead.

The soloflex definitely would have been the better investment, because then I could have hung my clothes on it. Now, convince me that advice given out here performs any better than that given out on the 8 track tape.

 

[fedgolfer]

May I have 50 volunteers and someone willing to do all the number crunching? Tom-it wouldn't require any more time than you're already putting in to this site.

Further support of someone too lazy to do their own work.

 

[Desperado]

DANG IT!!! I QUIT!!! You’re all right! I'm still confused and should be setting in the G fund like I was over two years ago. I should go back to being frightened, stupid, and cowering in the corner of my TSP room wishing I had the knowledge

Nobody is suggesting anyone sit in the G fund, nor that they not seek knowledge on investing. We're simply debating the merits of a buy and hold static allocation strategy versus short-term market timing based on statistically unproven indicators and gut instinct. If these market timers have lured you out of a 100% G Fund, they probably have done you a service. You would really have to be a shitty market-timer to do worse than 100% G over a long period of time. (Not that the G fund is a bad investment vehicle when combined with other asset classes. )

 

[fedgolfer]

The soloflex definitely would have been the better investment, because then I could have hung my clothes on it. Now, convince me that advice given out here performs any better than that given out on the 8 track tape.

ummm, haven't you heard... we're not trying to convince you of anything. You're the one trying to convince us with your prejudices. We're open to the fact that some like to buy & hold or do the L funds... it's you that are closed to the fact our success lies in other methods.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Further support of someone too lazy to do their own work.

c'mon desp, Tom and this site have been pretty much doing the experiment u suddenly suggest for the past 3 or so years. But if we listened to nay-sayers like yourself, we should quit. So which is it???

 

[tsptalk]

Tom..if you are so impressed with RevShark's ability, why aren't you following it? + 32% would beat the socks off of what you're posting for the year.

That 32% is not in TSP, but trading individual stocks. But there may be some changes around here come January. Rev had never traded the TSP and its deadline obstacle, but his results so far are impressive enough to warrant some changes. I obviously can't compete with a pro. I always considered his market commentary when making my decsions but once he started the newsletter, it became somewhat of a conflict for me.

Over the last couple of years I have had a major change in my trading style, mostly because I realized that people from 25 to 65 were considering my opinions. I had to tighten up. In 2004 I jumped heavily into stocks about 6 weeks before a major rally started. That was a rough 6 weeks for me. People were not happy about losing money. They seem to be more forgiving when I miss a rally. And again, that is another reason things may have to change around here - strategy wise. By the way, after those 6 weeks, the S&P rallied 16% during the last 3 months of the year. Patience.

 

[fedgolfer]

Tom, you're doing a great job in taking the high road in answering these questions. I'm more of the mindset that those that are to socially inept to ask questions and gather data in a kind manner don't deserve the easy road... or the big returns.

 

[AIF]

Is it safe to get back in the water now? :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Folks, this feels like 1982, terrible setiment at that bottom. I'll guarrantee you that we are heading into dramatically increased volatility and volume will also increase dramatically. 100 point Dow swings intraday will become the norm. Sounds like nirvana for a brave timer. And you best be brave. To the conqueror go the spoils. If the swings are large enough I might even be ready to come out and play - if not, then I will just accumulate and accumulate some more. We'll have to wait and see if it's 1995 or 1988.

 

[Show-me]

<sigh> But you are suggesting that I buy one fund or mix of funds and sit on them long term. I don't want to and perhaps others don't want to! I have a lot of ground to make up and I don't have a large salary to seed my account with. I do not have the luxury of putting $15k a year in my account without it taking a huge chunk out of my paycheck. If I did I would probably lower my risk and go the buy and hold route. I have a goal…………..$1 million in my TSP account within the next 20 years on a mid-$40k salary, I may not get to spend it but at least I am trying. Next year I may be in position to put $15k a year in, again I’m trying.

As for risk.......I don't know how many times the phrase "risk/reward" has been used on this MB by me and other, it has to be a lot.

As for people following others………that is their choice. LIVE WITH IT! Cigarettes and alcohol are bad for you but I’m not making anyone smoke or drink and I’m not asking anyone to follow me. Educate yourselves, make your own decision, and then live with it. If you what to beat the market………time it. If you’re happy with what the market gives you buy and hold.

I don’t give a crap if you’re a buy and hold guy or a market timer just don’t beat you drum so loud I can’t concentrate on my game. I got crabby with Birch because of the constant droning not because he was wrong. He is probably right. I just want to get there faster than him. I have a goal and I will use what works at the time. Let other people try if they want to.

<the “other mike” steps off of his soapbox and wearily takes his seat>

Nobody is suggesting anyone sit in the G fund, nor that they not seek knowledge on investing. We're simply debating the merits of a buy and hold static allocation strategy versus short-term market timing based on statistically unproven indicators and gut instinct. If these market timers have lured you out of a 100% G Fund, they probably have done you a service. You would really have to be a shitty market-timer to do worse than 100% G over a long period of time. (Not that the G fund is a bad investment vehicle when combined with other asset classes. )

 

[CountryBoy]

Tom,

As you can see I’m a relative newbie when it comes to posting my IFT’s, but I lurked here for almost a year before I decided to take the plunge. I kinda like to read up and get the feel of a place before and how/where/when to post so I don’t look more foolish than I am.

I was one of those TSPers that blindly followed what fund allocations that Uncle recommended and just let it ride. That was great, when the market was bullish, but the ride down was always a drag. So something had to be done. I wanted to be able to have some control of MY own money. The information/links provided here is like one stop shopping. Anyone that just blindly follows other folks advice, well, they should be in the L fund or on cruise control, cause they will be the complainers or are just to dang lazy to do the research necessary to at least shorten the fall. That was my main goal and I’ve succeed in that. Just that alone, has helped preserve more of my money.

Folks that complain, about the great info so freely provided, either have a reading deficiency, since it’s clearly stated that the goal of this site is to provide us with the information we need to help us make your own decisions or are the type to blame their problems on someone else. I’m a big boy and take full responsibility for my actions. It seems a lot of folks, haven’t learned to take responsibility for there actions.

There will always be a turd or 2 in the punch bowl that are real buzz kills. The time and effort of you and the other folks is really appreciated by almost all here.

I just get sick and tired of people who take potshots at anyone who is trying to help others. Keep up the great work.

Sorry if I rambled a bit here. But it just steams me.

CB

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks CB. I never believed it before, but sooner or later we all learn that no good deed goes unpunished.

I sincerely thought I started this site to be of some assistance to TSP'ers who were in the dark about investing. Even if I made 0% I thought people will come to learn, and to help each other.

Well, that has been true but since I started this site, TSP has blocked me from linking to their site, contacted my agency's investigation branch and had me investigated, I was given a two week suspension (later reduced to one) for being on the message board using a gov't PC, and now the director of the TSP would like to see me shut down. Can't say I'm not a little paranoid about something going on behind the scenes now. All this while, in my mind, I thought I was doing something positive. Shows how much I know.