Some negative comments on the site

Have you looked at the average hedge fund return? It is less than the G fund return, especially after expenses. Can you imagine paying 2% of assets and 20% of profits every year out of your TSP?

So you are saying rich people are stupid... maybe so. I haven't researched the topic in that great of detail. Where did you find hedge fund average return?
 
I don't want to mislead you. The $200k is my existing fund with interest over 20 years. So no, I do not have a good start:embarrest: and thus the reason for my quest.

Good...you already have a good start. Yes with 200K already banked your challenge is much more realistic. Now you probably only have to beat the market by 1-2% per year. Much more reasonable goal. Alternatively, you could just match the market and plan to work an extra year, or save a few thousand more every year, but you could always just work a couple of extra years if your plan doesn't work out.
 
You actually have 200 Grand at 20 years? Wow you will be fine! I wish I did!:sick: I have 33 years but CSRS!:worried:
 
First I would like to say that timing is defiantly a time consuming endeavor. One that I hope to ease up on in the future. Until I seed my account a bit more it will be the game I play.

OK I read the first 47 pages of the "http://indexfunds.com/" (The “12 Step Program” for active investors, a free on-line book available on that website is a must read) and it is a very interesting read. I can cut parts out to make a quick argument for timing. It seems that most quote are from the 1980’s and much older.

Market dynamics have change somewhat and it will take another 20 to 30 years to confirm and write about them just like it take 30 years to get good data on the market index performance. A very big and obvious one is the age of the Internet. Global media coverage. Electronic trading. The ability for us to get more information at an almost instantaneous rate.
On the negative side, marketing to get your dollars into trading when you have not done the research. I am guilty. In 1999, I was one of those that fell for the Ameritrade commercials. Started with $500 and lost it all.:embarrest: Since then I did my homework. I’m not always very articulate but I do have a course view of what is going on in the market. Getting a finer view will take more time and experience. “The reason stock prices are random is because the news that moves the prices is unpredictable and random. News is inherently unpredictable or it would not be considered news.” (pg. 25) AMEN! So why not sell on the news and look for a lower entry point? We are not buying and selling stock but using indices. “Nothing ventured nothing gained. Diversify instead of striving to make a killing. Don‘t put all your eggs in one basket.” (pg. 26) We don’t have many options in the TSP and the options we do have are all diversified whether you go 100% one fund or a blend of funds. I depends on you level of risk. Risk essentially means that there is uncertainty in future outcomes.” “.......risk is central to the whole process of investing.” “Markowitz came to realize the cruel truth of investing: investors cannot earn higher returns without taking on greater risk, and the greater the risk the greater the possibility of losing.” Certainly words to live by RISK/REWARD!

I could go on and on but what needs to be stressed is that if you are in the market there is always risk and if you are timing the market the risk increases but so does the possibility of reward.....................or loss.

Again good discussion. Made me print off a ream of paper so I could take it with me on our 6 hour round trip.:eek: Made my wife drive while I read.:sick: :laugh:
 
Comment

Negative vs Positive

The concept of buying and holding forever died after the stock market crash of 2000. Many investors lost huge sums of money, mainly because professional advisors or mutual fund managers didn't protect their clients portfolio.

Investors had two choises: Getting out of the market and seeking safe investments, or finding out more how to manage their own portfolios.

Day traders don't hold a position overnight. Swing traders hold positions for days or weeks. Position traders hold positions for weeks, months, or even a year or more.

The concept with TSPTalk is to aquaint members with managing their own funds. The misssion statement is: We want to maximize our Thrift Savings Plan retirement accounts and help others along the way. We do this by allocating our TSP assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns. This is acomplished by a professional news letter, comments and members sharing market information, ideas, and strategies. However the key concept is the management of funds by the individual member. To take charge of their investments and not leaving them up to chance!

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Chart courtesy of www.bigcharts.marketwatch.com
 
The best thing to come out of this thread is that 3 new people signed on. They were compelled to post. They couldn't resist. They lurked and skulked and finally had to post their opinions. That's what I'm talking about. More info more education more decisions.
 
Here's the way it works for me and maybe a few others. Some of us in this world only learn by doing, not by listening, or watching and certainly not by playing (as in having a test portfolio to track.)

I am one of those who would have been better off in January had I put all my TSP funds in an L Fund but I wouldn't have learned anything at all. Not near what I have learned by reading the board, trying to figure out who makes sense to listen to, learning a new vocabulary, putting together charts and trying to use them in determining how to manage my TSP and then best of all COMPETING in the Tracker with my real money. That is where it really motivates you try try harder and work harder and most of all STUDY harder.

This little learning curve (or BIG learning curve) may be costing me a bit with respect to my TSP balance now but in the long run, I think I will have gained considerably more than I've lost. I am envious of those who don't need to actually do but can learn by watching but I'm not one of those.

And besides the fact that the knowledge I've gained this past year will pay off (IMO) in the long run, it has also been a heck of a lot of fun.
 
ayla,

Research, sure helps and of course watching what the gurus do and their reasoning behind their moves is even better, but I’m the same way, I gotta jump in and learn by doing, when its real life and on the line. I’m just more of a hands on guy. It’s hard to get motivated for the hypothetical stuff.

I was a buy and hold type, until I found this site. Then slowly but surely (yep, very big learning curve also), I have felt more comfortable moving my funds around and have definitely done better than before. I even understand a lot of the terms used, i.e. channel, and now enjoy watching Bloomberg TV.

Being an engineer (we'uns can be kinda anal :nuts: ), I’ve really gotten into studying everything I can on the market. Talk about taking the proverbial drink from the firehose, but by the time I retire, I plan on managing my own money or at least 50% of it. At the least, I’ll know where and what I should be doing with it.

I don’t know about the Fed agencies, you all work at, but here, they save explaining what you should be doing with your money, in regards to saving and investing, until the end of your career and call it a pre retirement seminar. :mad: They should be teaching that class to the new hires, but hey, the guvment is always late with everything. Well, I guess better late than never.

A big thanks to all you guys who make this site possible.

CB
 
I joined TSP when it became availiable to us in the postal serviceback in 86 or 87. I am csrs and did not receive matching funds or the choice of which fund I could invest in. It had to be the G fund only. In 92 we were given the option of investing in the C fund. Back then you could only transfer in or out of a fund once a month. Very difficult to see your money dwindle and could not make a transfer. In 2000 I was very lucky because I was able to trnasfer to the G fund and minimized my loses. I found this site by chance a couple of years ago nad have been very happy with everything I have read, educational, enterainment, informative all wrapped up in one site with some very interrseting people. I do not post more often only because I do not have as much to contribute as the rest of you, but I do enjoy reading daily.
Every one has an opinion on evrything but why would any one want to shut down this site unless they were very jeolous of Tom and what they may perceive as money he may be making from this site. No one is forced to read or pay anything they read. Hell, I would pay just to read S&S. She is a very talented writter and knowledgeable about inveating as are nearly every one that contributes to the MB. The rest of learn from each other. This debate I feel is very positive because it brings out all the reasons we all come to this site daily. I do not subscribe to Rev Shark but I am glad to have the option if I so desire. I I say keep up with the good work and if you do not feel this board is any good, no one is forcing you to visit.
 
Nice to hear from you Vic something positive, I love it. Looks like you would fit right in with our croud, come back more often.
Norman:D
 
I agree with the above point of view and feel that the whole discussion is worthwhile, BUT:

It is very distracting to have this in Market Talk. We have a section near the bottom specifically designed for comments about the site. Could someone move this whole thread?
 
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