Some negative comments on the site

[Show-me]

Is the horse dead yet?

Anton,

Perhaps this site leans to the side of active because the active investors are more.................active. We are watching ED, OSM, charts, trend, and more all on the short term. We are networking with each other trying to learn more and get others opinions that share the same investing style. We make move in and out depending on what we think the markets reaction to the data is and in which direction we think the short term tend is going. It is time consuming but its fun and profitable for me. As for luck........sure luck only go's so far. You suggest a contingency plan..........probably same as yours. G and F fund for capital preservation. I look at long, intermediate, and short term trend. When the trend start down it will be a new chapter in my quest.

As for the negative tone and vicious response to Desperado's post. How about looking at the last part of his very first post......."It just seemed like someone ought to point this out. The TSP is too great of a thing to be wasted, but use it like it was meant to be used, as a long-term, buy and hold investment placed into an appropriate strategic asset allocation.

Advice received on TSPTALK.COM is detrimental to your TSP balances."

The tone of that last line was negative and vicious in my opinion. Not exactly a olive branch.:notrust: Usually the last thing one reads is the thing that sticks in you mind.

Simply put there are many different investing style. The two most common are trading and B&H. It is all about risk and reward. Trader will be the more dominate on the MB because we chat more, with the exception of Birchtree. :cheesy:

Glad to see some of the lurker finally coming to the surface.

 

[weatherweenie]

Anton,

Good post. I'll definitely ready the info on the Index fund site.

The bottom line is, people are free to do what they want with their money.

If they want to buy and hold, nobody should criticize them.

If they want to be active investors, let'em.

I was shocked to read that Tom has received as much grief as he has from superiors, and the TSP, for running this site. That's just wrong.

 

[ocean]

I am a late coming on this topic. You all (especially Tom) have my support on this and all your posts are great. We should not be intimidated by some fly-by-night person just hopped in and made a few negative comments. People like this just come and go and we should not be bothered with it and this board lives forever.

But one thing, one thing... it shows that this board has sprit, it is united. No matters what method of style we choose to invest our TSP account, the forum will still be here well into your retirement with some good dollar amount in your account balance and that is the bottom line.

Have a nice weekend

Ocean

 

[Show-me]

I was shocked to read that Tom has received as much grief as he has from superiors, and the TSP, for running this site. That's just wrong.

Me too! I am going to give a letter to my Senators and Congressman some serious thought this weekend. Going to sip wine with the wife and in-laws. Hopefully it will spawn some creativity. LOL:nuts:

 

[ocean]

it shows that this board has sprit, it is united.
Ocean

correction on "spirit" not "sprit"

Ocean

 

[Desperado]

Thanks CB. I never believed it before, but sooner or later we all learn that no good deed goes unpunished.

I sincerely thought I started this site to be of some assistance to TSP'ers who were in the dark about investing. Even if I made 0% I thought people will come to learn, and to help each other.

Well, that has been true but since I started this site, TSP has blocked me from linking to their site, contacted my agency's investigation branch and had me investigated, I was given a two week suspension (later reduced to one) for being on the message board using a gov't PC, and now the director of the TSP would like to see me shut down. Can't say I'm not a little paranoid about something going on behind the scenes now. All this while, in my mind, I thought I was doing something positive. Shows how much I know.

Wow! I doubt the 100 of you who are frequently trading are really costing the rest of us that much! Unbelievable! Big brother eh?

 

[Desperado]

We already have quite a few folks who will have 2 years of being tracked at the end of this year. I would suggest that you come back in several years and run the analysis. The spreadsheet with the data is posted regularly. See this thread.. Tally Thread

Edit: I'll see if I can dig something up for you on the market not being random. Should be fairly easy. Just look at the long term S&P.... it has a positive slope.... but, I'd bet you'd rather see something on a day to day basis....

The problem with that approach comes down to biases:

1) The bias that only those who did well will post
2) The bias that a few may be lying
3) The bias of only having a few people (you would need a certain amount of different accounts to be statistically valid
4) Numerous other biases that are evident with retrospective analyses that could be eliminated with a well designed study

 

[Desperado]

Desperado, let me add one more thing, that I've said before. The rich use Hedge Fund managers. I find it hard to believe that they (the rich) are all stupid.

Have you looked at the average hedge fund return? It is less than the G fund return, especially after expenses. Can you imagine paying 2% of assets and 20% of profits every year out of your TSP?

 

[Desperado]

Yale economics professor is a market timer.

.

Of course, the economics professor who actually has managed Yale's endowment to a long-term 16% per year return (and was the top endowment manager this last year...again) David Swensen advocates my approach for the individual investor in his book Unconventional Success.

 

[vectorman]

Some positive comments on this site. I have been a member at this site since Nov 7th, 2004. I'll try not to make this too long. Before I started following this site. I was ignorant of TSP and the stock market. Through this site, I can hardly put into words the wealth of knowledge and experience I have achieved. The information that flows through this site is just amazing. At any given time, one can see charts, links, tips, confessions of past practices that failed or worked, and be able to see the results of active vs buy and hold members. There are also people like Tom and other members who are willing to take time from their busy day and answer questions from complete strangers. I have co-workers who have been in TSP for years and know nothing about the differences between TSP funds. What is sad, is some have been in the G fund for the last three years, during this Bull run. Knowledge is power and a key to success.

 

[Desperado]

<sigh> I have a lot of ground to make up and I don't have a large salary to seed my account with. I do not have the luxury of putting $15k a year in my account without it taking a huge chunk out of my paycheck. If I did I would probably lower my risk and go the buy and hold route. I have a goal…………..$1 million in my TSP account within the next 20 years on a mid-$40k salary, I may not get to spend it but at least I am trying. >

This was the same problem that gave investors problems in the tech bubble...unrealistic expectations. You say $15K is hard for you to do. Let's say you can pull off 8K over 20 years (a huge chunk of your 40K salary). Do you realize the return you'd need to pull off to hit $1 Million? 17% per year. Obviously a bit lower depending on how much you have already. Many experts believe we'll see a long-term return on the US stock market of about 8% over the next 10-20 years (maybe 9% for small and international stocks). You're going to have to be sufficiently skilled to not only beat the market, but to absolutely trounce it. Good luck.

I'm a firm believer in Bill Schultheis's opinion that you can only control three things:

1) Your strategic asset allocation
2) The amount of money you save
3) Approximating the market's return

Luckily, these are the three things that make the biggest difference in your investment balances.

The biggest problem with the TSP, IMHO, is that military folks don't get a match on their contributions. How unfair is that? If we're going to lobby the government for something TSP related, let's lobby them about that.

I also enjoy the IFA 12 Step program site. I suggest all read it, just so you realize what you're up against. And for the buy and holders who don't feel like they get much support here, consider asking questions at diehards.org. Although it isn't a TSP specific site, (it is geared toward Vanguard investors), there are many posters there who are participants in the TSP.

 

[Show-me]

Desperado,

Every time I think Desperado I can't get that song out of my head. LOL I went to the TSP.gov calculator and figured with my current balance, withholdings, and $5k catch up my goal would be right on with just 10% return on new and old balance. Now as my account grows and I get closer to my goal my strategy will change to the more conservative one. If I can pull off the $15k a year, next year. :nuts: WOW!:nuts: Katching, jackpot baby!

Good luck to you also! And I am printing off the 12 step book to read. I am not against B&H, it is just not for me right now. Eventually I would be more of a Bob Brinker timer.

Your Results as a FERS Participant​

Growth of your future contributions and earnings$ 823,857

plus​

Growth of your existing account balance$ 205,186

equals​

Total estimated TSP account balance$ 1,029,043

This was the same problem that gave investors problems in the tech bubble...unrealistic expectations. You say $15K is hard for you to do. Let's say you can pull off 8K over 20 years (a huge chunk of your 40K salary). Do you realize the return you'd need to pull off to hit $1 Million? 17% per year. Obviously a bit lower depending on how much you have already. Many experts believe we'll see a long-term return on the US stock market of about 8% over the next 10-20 years (maybe 9% for small and international stocks). You're going to have to be sufficiently skilled to not only beat the market, but to absolutely trounce it. Good luck.quote]

 

[airlift]

Tom -

I support your views, and also appreciate reading Rev Shark's comments here, because he is a successful attorney who has become a successful trader by choice, and who has inspired and taught me for the last 6 years at RM.com --

Keep up the fine work you are doing with TSPtalk.com.

Best regards,

Sponsor --

Desperado - why don't you come to your senses?

This is an argument that has gone on for a long, long time and I doubt we'll change each others' mind, but a least people can hear both sides of the story.

First off, I make it very clear that I am not a professional (I'm a computer programmer) and that no one should blindly follow what I do. I tell everybody my allocation for accountability purposes; As in, this what I am doing, and I this is why I am doing it. The email alerts came as a suggestion from our readers a few years ago.

I also make it clear that most people should be diversified and / or be in an L-fund. I recently wrote about this in a daily market commentary. Market timing is not for everyone (maybe myself included .)

Your conclusion that because my return from 2000-2005, which handily beat the return of the S&P 500, should have beat a 20% in each fund diversified allocation does not take into considertion that those 6 years included the worst bear market of our lifetime. The G and F fund were the top performers funds over that period, so should we conclude that they are the best investment vehicles for us? If I had tracked my account during the late 1990's, and I really wish I would have, it would have been more apparent that a diversified account would have lagged an aggressive account. By aggressive I mean all in or all out type of investing. The data are too small to draw a conclusion.

By the way, I am concerned that you believe the calculations are inaccurate in our spreadsheets. I'd like to know what you found because I would want to fix that right away.

TSP Talk is for educational purposes and it is free. If you want to talk about the services that we do charge for, your argument loses effectiveness. The return of the TSP Timing Newsletter that we have provided since February is beating the return of every fund, including the L-funds since its inception. The return is more than double that of the diversified account. It is nearly double that of the C fund, and it is beating the S fund by nearly 11%. See the data here. James "RevShark" Deporre is one of the best market timers in the business. Now that I have seen what he can do, I have considered following him more closely and stop posting my allocation. After all, he's the pro, I'm the pro-grammer.

RevShark has asked me to post, on his behalf, his response to the buy and hold / market timing debate, which I will do so below. This is not a new subject to him.

Thanks for your input. I believe this site is much than posting a return and having people follow it. It is a forum for these types of discussions which, until TSP Talk came online, was not possible on this scale.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

For those who are happy to see RevShark cheerleading the market timing approach you might consider that folks like you who subscribe to his newsletter(s) put money straight in his pocket (and whoever else gets a cut) whether he produces a return or not. In contrast the few of us on here pitching passive investing have absolutely nothing to gain (or lose) from convincing market timers to change their ways.

Good post Anton. Regarding your comments on RevShark; You make it sound like he is a hit or miss trader who is happily taking your money. Far from it.

Market timing isn't something new to Deporre and I wouldn't have asked him to do this newsletter, and he would not have accepted, if he didn't sincerely believe he could help TSP account holders. Anyone who has subscribed to his service has seen the rewards. Can he do it every year? That remains to be seen but he has been doing this (market timing) for a long time. To invest in his hedge fund you must have a net worth of $1 million to qualify, so you are not in bad company as one of his clients.

As far as the fee goes, it is not based on account size like many of the large brokerage houses so your account balance should be a consideration when joining. Doing the numbers, someone paying the $216 to $240 annual fee (depending on length of subscription) with an account balance of $100,000 ends up paying about a 2/10 of 1% annual fee. (other examples: $50,000 is 4/10 of 1%, $300,000 is 7/100 of 1%.) That miniscule fee will get you much more bang for your buck than having someone like Smith Barney managing your money, who will charge a much higher fee and you won't learn a thing. Of course we can always take our chances and manage our accounts oursleves, as most here do.

If anyone is ever unhappy with this service, they simply cancel and they're out.

By the way, when you join up with RevShark, you just get don't one guy - it's an entire company with a knowledgeable staff. (sharkinvesting.com).

 

[robo]

Yep, I'm hooked! I'm a Market Timer. I also have a Brokerage account and it is statically proven 80% of traders lose money. Why do it then?

I also love to eat Dry Aged Black Angus Beef, drink beer, play poker, play Xbox 360 action games on my HD TV, Love dark chocolate, and Believe in God. Now many would disagree with these practices.

Man, it's great to have choices. I'm sticking with Tom and the Shark and I love TSPtalk baby and my Skarkfolio. It is more then meeting MY GOALS. I’m not trying to beat the Market. I’m close to retirement, very close to critical mass, and a very conservative investor. It all works well for me. Birchtree posts that he is a buy and hold in his TSP account, but he will not beat some of the Paid services I get. However, Market Timing is not for the average person. You had better learn how to ride a Bike before you get on a Motorcycle and Market Timing is like riding a unicycle up and down steep hills baby!

Oh by the way! Again, I’m not trying to beat the C Fund I’m trying to beat the G Fund and inflation. You see I’m close to retirement, close to critical mass and a conservative investor. This site is about sharing, educating, informing, and learning investing ideas and styles, and for some trying to beat the market. For others like myself it’s
About Our mission is simple: We want to maximize our Thrift Savings Plan retirement accounts and help others along the way.
We do this by allocating our TSP assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns.

Forrest Gump stated it well, “That's all I have to say about that.” I will not post again on this thread. This debate is an old one. I will now add three things to my list to never debate, Religion, Politics and Market timing. Nothing wrong with buy and hold and nothing wrong with market timing if you know what you are doing.

Keep up the good work TSPtalkers, Tom, the Shark and even the Buy and Hold Guys like BIRCHTREE! GO GO Birchtree! Sorry Big Bull, I still think we get a pull-back before we go to S&P 1400. But what do you care you never leave the pasture and you love the smell of manure! Go Big Bull!

 

[tsptalk]

I support your views, and also appreciate reading Rev Shark's comments here, because he is a successful attorney who has become a successful trader by choice, and who has inspired and taught me for the last 6 years at RM.com

Sponsor -
I see you joined our message in May of this year. I don't know how long you have been coming here but I'll bet you were surprised to see RevShark over here, huh? I've followed him since the mid-90's (never actally met him) and I was surprised he agreed to my request to join us on TSP Talk. As they say, it never hurts to ask.

 

[fabijo]

The problem with that approach comes down to biases:

1) The bias that only those who did well will post
2) The bias that a few may be lying
3) The bias of only having a few people (you would need a certain amount of different accounts to be statistically valid
4) Numerous other biases that are evident with retrospective analyses that could be eliminated with a well designed study

Maybe you don't know how TSP tracking is done on this site. For any IFT to be tracked, it must be entered on the board prior to noon EST, just like tsp.gov. So, if anyone has good returns on the tracker, there was no way for them to only post when they did good. We track people's performances "real time."

 

[airlift]

Yes, I was surprised. I learned of TSPtalk from StockCharts.com, with whom I have had a subscripyion for about 5 years. I am happy to be here, knowing that you have fine subscribers who are ready to help all the time. This is an excellent website, whether for buy-and-holders or anyone seeking to learn shorter term trading. -

Sponsor -
I see you joined our message in May of this year. I don't know how long you have been coming here but I'll bet you were surprised to see RevShark over here, huh? I've followed him since the mid-90's (never actally met him) and I was surprised he agreed to my request to join us on TSP Talk. As they say, it never hurts to ask.

 

[Desperado]

Your Results as a FERS Participant​

Growth of your future contributions and earnings$ 823,857

plus​

Growth of your existing account balance$ 205,186

equals​

Total estimated TSP account balance$ 1,029,043

.quote]

Good...you already have a good start. Yes with 200K already banked your challenge is much more realistic. Now you probably only have to beat the market by 1-2% per year. Much more reasonable goal. Alternatively, you could just match the market and plan to work an extra year, or save a few thousand more every year, but you could always just work a couple of extra years if your plan doesn't work out.

 

[FundSurfer]

The problem with that approach comes down to biases:

1) The bias that only those who did well will post
2) The bias that a few may be lying
3) The bias of only having a few people (you would need a certain amount of different accounts to be statistically valid
4) Numerous other biases that are evident with retrospective analyses that could be eliminated with a well designed study

#1) We have a full spectrum right now. You could be right as time goes on. We have found that people seem to come and go. I myself have cycles of activity. I travel and tend to post less frequently when on the road.

#2) Our rules prevent that. You have to post to your account thread by the trading deadline (with a half hour or so grace period). The time/date stamp doesn't lie. The spreadsheets are posted so anyones data can be checked.

#3) Granted that we have less than 20 who will have 2 years in December. Give it time.

#4) The only problem I see with your proposal is time/labor. Sometimes you have to take what you can get.