Short Term Outlook

[Dave M]

Predicting the weather is my business. Do not confuse the weather with the TSP, heh.

CDI, what I had to do was determine how much risk I was willing to shoulder. My answer was to risk only my earnings, not my "principle." Therefore the fraction of my total account balance represented by my personal contributions is safely tucked away in the G-fund. The rest is distributed among several of the funds in order to take advantage of whichever one happens to be rising. Having settled on an allocation, I rebalance it monthly in order that earnings (and hence risk) will be in the same percentages as my allocations: 35G 20C 20S 25I. In other words, I am managing an investment portfolio and not gambling.

If you are relatively new to the TSP then you are in for many years of enjoyment. Baby it along by contributing the MAX while investing it wisely, and 20 years from now you will be swinging a club as big a BT's, ~$1 million.

Good luck!

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

Easy now

DaveM,

Birchtree is nowhere near $1mil in TSP. If I have a good year I may approach $1/2 mil but I'll need two points on the C fund to get there.

Now I did hit over $1 mil on my outside account - but it only lasted for two days - got to punt that one again. A good year should potentially turn that into $1.5 mil providing I'm in the right sectors and own the right stocks in those sectors. I plan to do a lot of buying and minor selling of profits to increase income levels from dividends.

It seems few folks are bullish these days - just the way the Bull likes it. It could end up being a lonely ride up, but that's life. Hey, at least you got a view.

 

[Wizard]

Bullish Advisors 53%
Bearish Advisors 25%

As of Feb 3rd.

 

[Birchtree]

Microcosm

Wizard,

I think that my TSP participant investors are acting somewhat like an indicator. Sort of a microcosm, may actually not mean anything in the realm of all things considered - but one never knows when a new indicator may signal something important or something to be ignored, relagated to the existing arsenal of factoids. You understand I'm sure. And I was serious when I said your perspective helps protect my back. This is turning out to be a great board - hope the newbies bring even more information and data to the table of the investing participants.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

A current update

Looking to the near future and given we are in one of the weakest months during the year I would expect the following....

S&P is low of its mid term average and expected to continue. Expecting a downward direction until support is found maybe in the range of 1220-1240...

Wilshire is high with a downward directional vector...looking for support in the range of 530's...

EAF is hurting due to the dollar strengthening...I would not expect the dollar to hold over time and the EAF should be looking for some sort of support in the 58-60 range...

AGG will hurting with short periods of positive movement. Inflation reports will persist and will continue to affect the AGG for the time being....

As a reminder, this is a viewpoint independent of whatever Tom or RevSharks has to say so take it for what ever it is worth...

So far the year is going pretty much as I mentioned at the end of 2005. I continue to hold that line......We should hold the above mentioned directions until possibly May, in which time I may change evaluations.....

 

[mlk_man]

Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.

M_M

12-31-2005, 01:30 PM
The_Technician

vbmenu_register("postmenu_34353", true);
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: , ,
Posts: 985

imported post
Well I've been out at the hunting camp...seen some big foot prints....big buck and doe dancing around......my son is going to get him a big rack this year I believe.....

So what did I tell you last week Soldat....it petered out..:^....and next week it should hold at first and then start a selling slide....and slide and slide......and so on.....:U

Under these past several weeks in the market, where we had a good run and then it petered out at EOY, I wouldn't be holding your money in it .......its profit taking time.....and pay the taxes over a year later....:x

I firmly believe the I fund will drop some here with the C and S funds dropping, expecting the dollar to gain some strength for a bit......then I believe the I fund will come back but its a few months off...:i

Careful Davy,......Keep you eyes open othere wolves in them thar woods young Crockett!!!

:dude:Today...Dancing With Wolves is on post, The Technician is enjoying the holidays, and Carnac didn't get it right (but he did preceive it might happen....a month or so ago)



__________________
The Technician

​

 

[The_Technician]

I still see it holding true....

Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.

M_M

12-31-2005, 01:30 PM
The_Technician

vbmenu_register("postmenu_34353", true);
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: , ,
Posts: 985

imported post
Well I've been out at the hunting camp...seen some big foot prints....big buck and doe dancing around......my son is going to get him a big rack this year I believe.....

So what did I tell you last week Soldat....it petered out..:^....and next week it should hold at first and then start a selling slide....and slide and slide......and so on.....:U

Under these past several weeks in the market, where we had a good run and then it petered out at EOY, I wouldn't be holding your money in it .......its profit taking time.....and pay the taxes over a year later....:x

I firmly believe the I fund will drop some here with the C and S funds dropping, expecting the dollar to gain some strength for a bit......then I believe the I fund will come back but its a few months off...:i

Careful Davy,......Keep you eyes open othere wolves in them thar woods young Crockett!!!

:dude:Today...Dancing With Wolves is on post, The Technician is enjoying the holidays, and Carnac didn't get it right (but he did preceive it might happen....a month or so ago)



__________________
The Technician

​

the pop at the start of the seaon was a bit more than expected with the sell off over the near term until support level is achieved...its just struunnnng out a bit.....but basically its holding true to prediction....

I don't think I'm far off......

 

[Wheels]

Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.

M_M

You beat me to it mlk. I seem to remember a call for a 10% decline right off the bat. Even with recent weakness, all the stock funds are up.

Dave
<><

 

[The_Technician]

Keep adding it up

You beat me to it mlk. I seem to remember a call for a 10% decline right off the bat. Even with recent weakness, all the stock funds are up.

Dave
<><

Yeap, we didn't get the right off the bat.....but...

We're 3.29% down on the S&P and its counting down day by day....the C fund has retreated all the way back to 1 Dec 05....and expecting the S to follow....I fund will of course be dependent on the value of the dollar over time......of course you may want to think its all going to continue up......huh, that would be interesting....

 

[cdifrances]

What's with the I Fund?

Predicting the weather is my business. Do not confuse the weather with the TSP, heh.

CDI, what I had to do was determine how much risk I was willing to shoulder. My answer was to risk only my earnings, not my "principle." Therefore the fraction of my total account balance represented by my personal contributions is safely tucked away in the G-fund. The rest is distributed among several of the funds in order to take advantage of whichever one happens to be rising. Having settled on an allocation, I rebalance it monthly in order that earnings (and hence risk) will be in the same percentages as my allocations: 35G 20C 20S 25I. In other words, I am managing an investment portfolio and not gambling.

If you are relatively new to the TSP then you are in for many years of enjoyment. Baby it along by contributing the MAX while investing it wisely, and 20 years from now you will be swinging a club as big a BT's, ~$1 million.

Good luck!

Dave

Thanks, Dave. I'll follow your advice. But what's the story on the I Fund which was doing so well and now seems to be taking a big dive? I'm trying to figure out exactly what TSP is tracking in Morgan Stanley. I couldn't find Morgan Stanley Capital International (EAFE) in the Yahoo Finance acronyms. On the other hand, I can't figure out where NasDaq is in the TSP funds. I'm trying to learn so that I can make better decisions. Any help is deeply appreciated. I understand the G Fund. A bit confused about the F Fund which is pretty dismal. The C Fund tracks the S & P. The S Fund tracks the Dow. The rest is still somewhat of a mystery. I know the old saw, "Buy low, Sell high." Not much of a gambler, I'm mostly in the G Fund for now.
Claire

 

[Birchtree]

Claire - it's the hedgefunds

The influence os U.S. investors on Tokyo's stock market rise has been especially strong. According to Japan's Finance Ministry, foreign investors bought 1.6 trillion yen (more than $13 billion) worth of Japanese shares in November.

They may be buying still.

The Nikkei Stock Average is up more than 50%, showing the sort of surge commonly seen when investors pile into the hot areas at the end of the year. For Japanese professional investors, the fiscal year doesn't end until March 31. True, there is an enthusiasm (some would say mania) for stocks among individual investors in Japan, but the real force behind this month's rally may reside in the U.S. If that is true, when the New Year wipes fund msanagers' slates clean, and the desperation to but isn't there anymore, stocks in Japan and other hot markets could have a bout of selling.

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

Looks like

we got a bit or a repreive for a short period of time.....there is good reason to believe that the markets are at a peak and should be turning down for a period....in which I believe will be sometime in April....

Keep vigilant.....

 

[The_Technician]

I know we all have been beating down the doors of late to make a few percent....but...I don't think its a good idea to be in any fund other than G at the moment...

But that my opinion....

 

[The_Technician]

I believe we should be expecting a 5-10% correction at least and soon ...so don't get caught holding the bag....:worried:

U can say you heard it here first....I think the crystal ball I just bought is a good'un......it has newer features than that old one...someone remind me to thank Gilligan for making it essential to buy a newer model.....

CARNAC the MAGNIFICIENT

 

[Pilgrim]

Tomorrow morning (Friday) at 8:30, we get the GDP estimate. Consensus is for 4.9%. I suppose the sweet spot is just a little less than that number. Anybody got a feel for how high it could go before the market tanks in response?

 

[Pilgrim]

Boom or Bust time coming!!

12:00 AM ET May 21, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With all due respect to a couple of important reports on home sales, the most important U.S. economic number of the coming week is likely to be one most people have never heard of: the core personal-consumption expenditure price index.
All you have to know about that mouthful of words is that this is the inflation number the Federal Reserve respects and fears. Forget the consumer-price index; if the Fed were to target inflation, the core PCE price index would be the target, not the CPI.
The Commerce Department will report on the core PCE price index on Friday morning, as part of its income and spending release. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 0.2% increase in core inflation after a 0.3% gain in March.

Actually, the whole story is worth reading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...1DB-4B81-8ADA-AA097C8F9622}&siteid=mktw&dist=

 

[Pilgrim]

When I got up this morning, lotsa commentators were saying "watch 1258 for the S&P". It can always turn around but right now is under 1255. Suppose it closes like this?

I am not a big fan of technical analysis, but that comes mostly from my ignorance. If a major support level fails to hold, what does that really mean for the next few days? Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?

 

[davtrader]

Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?

No one can predict.....
Support and resistance are zones not a concrete number.
All technical analysis methods simply read and try to project future outcomes.
You do not trade the markets...you trade your beliefs about the market.

SPX-My beliefs are we almost have 5(may be intraday low 5/23) waves down and divergence in RSI..almost over.
good luck

 

[Wizard]

Weak support at 64 and 63.

Strong support at 60.

It will probably at least retest 63.

 

[Pilgrim]

Friday looking really risky. Who's gonna play?

By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:30 AM ET May 23, 2006

"Headline inflation, as measured by the producer and the consumer price indexes, has been more than expected, while the "core," or underlying, rate of inflation has been creeping up as well.

Speaking of which, the markets are holding their breath until the release of the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core PCE index, scheduled to come out this Friday.

Given what's been happening elsewhere, there's a good chance that this measure will inch up above the range that the Fed and its new chairman, Ben Bernanke, are said to be willing to tolerate."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD2978679%2D112E%2D4388%2D9001%2DE8BAB7AEE1F8%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=