Short Term Outlook

[nnuut]

I don't think so!!!!!! No No

 

[Pilgrim]

Short bonds, the two year in particular, continue to yield more than any bond that is longer. How long can this go on before:

a) real effects (earnings losses by banks, other financials, etc) begin to weigh market down; or

b) talking heads turn to this, wake everyone up, and perception drags the market down.

Maybe none of the above? In short, how important is this, really??

 

[ebbnflow]

Going through choppy waters...

MARKET SNAPSHOT
Another rocky week ahead for stocks
Investors will weigh earnings, fret about geopolitics

By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:50 PM ET Jul 21, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Trading of U.S. stocks is expected to be choppy next week as investors grapple with the next wave of second-quarter earnings, fresh inflation readings and what appears to be an escalation of violence in the Middle East. Read more here.

 

[frokker]

And that is why I did an IFT this morning! I'll watch from the sidelines starting Monday and see what develops.

 

[nnuut]

I've done really done well at at hitting all the bottoms this week. Just do the opposite of what I do, you'll make out!

 

[Pilgrim]

Some thoughts from:

http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/060919/060919_19fed.html?.v=1

Ned Davis Research recently studied Fed rate moves going back to 1920 and found that, typically, it has taken only 5 1/2 months between the last in a series of Fed rate hikes to the first in a series of rate cuts.

If August represented the end of the current cycle of Fed rate hikes, this means the central bank could start trimming rates sometime in February.

Dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 has fallen 2.1 percent on average between the last in a series of rate hikes and the first in a series of rate cuts.

Historically, the market takes off rather quickly soon after the Fed starts trimming rates. In fact, since 1954, the S&P 500 has jumped 10 percent on average in the six months after the first in a series of interest-rate cuts.

 

[mayday]

Next weeks economic calendar FOCUS Mon.25 1000ET Existing Home Sales Tues.26 1000ET Consumer Confidence also Japan gets new Prime Minister Wed.27 0830ET Durable Goods Orders 1000ET New Home Sales 1030ET Thus.28 GDP 0830ET Fri.29 0830ET Personal Income and Outlays

 

[mayday]

I'm not expecting good news on the August Existing Home Sales Report at 1000ET Monday September 25th but I do'nt know how much of an impact that will have on a market due a rebound. It will confirm an existing economic slow-down in the US but the market has its own voice and pulse and could ignore that bit of info. and soar. Mayday

 

[Pilgrim]

I'm not expecting good news on the August Existing Home Sales Report at 1000ET Monday September 25th but I do'nt know how much of an impact that will have on a market due a rebound. It will confirm an existing economic slow-down in the US but the market has its own voice and pulse and could ignore that bit of info. and soar. Mayday

It depends on exactly how bad it is. I think the action over the past two days has been the market pricing in exactly this bad news. If it is only a little bad, i.e. comes in just under expectations, the market will shake it off before the day is done. Any better, the market will rally. For stocks to tank, the news will have to be much worse than what has been priced in, a subjective concept - who knows where to draw a line.

 

[mayday]

It depends on exactly how bad it is. I think the action over the past two days has been the market pricing in exactly this bad news. If it is only a little bad, i.e. comes in just under expectations, the market will shake it off before the day is done. Any better, the market will rally. For stocks to tank, the news will have to be much worse than what has been priced in, a subjective concept - who knows where to draw a line.

Sell the rumor Buy the news. Mayday

 

[The_Technician]

Sell the rumor Buy the news. Mayday

The action on Friday was weak in strength....we will see this week how weak it was.....

 

[Birchtree]

Could simply be the dreaded head fake - notice how many participants in our small microcosm are now G funders. That lilly pad is getting crowded.

 

[nnuut]

"F" if you please!

 

[mayday]

I do'nt see the I fund making too much progress today. The C & S may make some gains if there is not too much reaction over the August Housing Resale Report. Depending on the reaction will determine my play. If the market is climbing I'll jump to I if its falling or stagnant S Mayday

 

[mayday]

Consumer confidence report at 1000ET Tuesday the 26th should bring good news with oil being lower gives the masses more money in their pockets. Expect the dow to benefit. Mayday

 

[mayday]

Japan and Australia still have room to move up. Japan could go up to 16800.00 Australia to 51.00 FTSE 100 must break thru 6000.00 Dollar needs to decline in order for the I fund to fly high. Mayday

 

[mayday]

Looks like the republicans want to stay in office. Low Oil makes the mob happy. Could keep the market pumped until election. Then theres the holidays. Birch I can see where you coming from snort.

 

[mayday]

This upswing in the market is based more on lower fuel costs than increased economic activity. With the holidays approaching that will increase economic activity. Stimulating the economy to quickly will raise inflationary pressure and a fear of further rate hikes.

 

[mayday]

We are in a strong up-trend. Have you noticed the dow stays in a tight range then takes off and repeats. In the last two weeks we've gone from 11650 to our current 11960.51 Will it continue big question? Friday hinted at resistance but did not signal a fall. It seems like its doing the same thing. Keep a eye on oil as long as its below 60. The dollar has strenghtened, so watch out I.

 

[Show-me]

Short term trend is looking excellent. If the I fund manages a good return Monday I will switch to the S fund.