imported post
For those interested in emerging markets Vanguard has a "diversified" emerging market ETF. Its return over the past year has been unreal, so I believe I will wait before I take that plunge.
Looks like a good day with Asia and Europe up thus far; most of us are expecting some kind of correction soon, yet year to date returns are belowhistorical averages.I look at the price of oil stubbornly stuck at $57-58 a barrel during aso far mildweather season.
I'll continue to hang at 80/20.
From Bloomberg:
Economic Reports
Gains in Treasuries may be tempered by speculation reports next week will show the economy is strengthening.
The Commerce Department on Nov. 29 is likely to say durable goods orders rose in October for the second month in three. The following day it will probably say the economy in the third quarter grew at a faster pace than initially estimated, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast.
The Labor Department a week from today may say employers added workers to payrolls at the fastest pace in four months, according to the median estimate of economists.
``Conditions in the U.S. are still buoyant,'' said Michael Thomas, an economist and fixed-income strategist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney, a unit of the world's largest interbank broker. ``Ten-year yields at these levels are still expensive.''
The 10-year yield may rise to 4.75 percent at the end of the year, Thomas said.
Citigroup Forecasts
This year, Treasuries are up 1.82 percent, the worst performance since 1999, when they fell 2.38 percent, according to Merrill indexes.
Ten-year Treasury yields will fall to 4.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 as growth and inflation slow, according to Citigroup Inc. in a report to clients published Nov. 23.
The Fed will raise rates to 4.5 percent in the first quarter, before bringing the figure down to 4.25 percent by year- end, matching the 10-year yield, it said.
``U.S. interest rates likely will peak early in 2006,'' said the report, written by the global markets team headed by chief economist Lewis Alexander in New York. ``A modest deceleration in the economy should curb inflationary pressures.''
Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in October, the smallest increase since June, and producer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs declined 0.3 percent, the most in more than two years, government reports last week showed.
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Shamim Adam in Singapore at [email]sadam2@bloomberg.net[/email].
Rodrigo Davies at [email]rdavies13@bloomberg.net[/email]
Spaf
