You are right. However Rym may have been eluding to the fact that the stock funds have run up a bit and may be due a correction.
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
You are right. However Rym may have been eluding to the fact that the stock funds have run up a bit and may be due a correction.
First of all the I fund is up around 15 1/2%. And to answer your question, if anybody had known the I fund would be ahead of whatever it was they were doing, then of course they would have chosen the I fund. But I'll do you one better. If I had known what fund was going to do the best each and every day, then I would be sure to be in that fund and I'd be up a couple hundred percent for the year. This stuff is pretty easy looking backwards. So you've cracked the case as far as where my money should have been for the last 8 months. Got any sage advice for where it should be for the next 4 months?
Gilligan
Member
S&S, thanks for posting the prices. Beats waiting for the tsp.gov site to update!
Gilligan, you've done Morgan Stanley one better (MSCI EAFE +.14 cents), you've hit the bullseye with your +.15 cents estimate. Great job!
Ebb,
If it wasn’t for you and Frokker helping me get my numbers straightened out this morning I would have been way off. Thanks for your help.
frokker
Member
TY for clarifying it.
Gilligan
Member
I thought that the I fund was just coming out of a correction. The dollar is closer to the bottom of the trading channel so it might be heading back up in the next week or so.
I wish i can chime in,but i'm no help.I like to read this i fund so i can get some information about I fund,So far it help me alot.Thank you all.
D
Dave M
Guest
Jeremy, check the tally for June 10th -- there sits the I-fund at 5 and a fraction, down from the May high of 16+%. Still wanna be 100I? The I-fund has the highest percentage in my portfolio but not 100%, no way.
Dave
Dave
SkyPilot
Well-known member
Jeremy, I think what you have here is a lucky pick, but not a strategy. Nothing wrong with that, as long as you know the difference.
I want to share with all of you my views going forward. I still believe that the I-fund will outperform all others going forward and that the dollar will decline against other currencies during the next few months. There will be some ups and downs, but that is the trend that I believe will continue. However, I believe that before we can rally, there should be a correction, which might be mild or deep, and which many technical analysts insist is ripe to occur (perhaps starting in the next couple of days!). Maybe we will see a mild correction now, and a deeper correction in October. All of these, I hope that we can trade effectively. This morning at around 5:20 A.M. EST, I was watching CNBC Worldwide Exchange. A very respected market strategist from J.P. Morgan was interviewed. His name, Tim Harris, I believe he is British, expressed his reasoned opinion. In response to a question regarding what he considers the best allocation going forward, Mr. Harris stated that he is underweight the U.S., and that he likes Asia (Ex-Japan), and also likes Europe going forward. He addressed the inverted yield curve. He stated that when the bond yield curve steepens between the 10-year note, and I think he said the 2-year bond, that this presages either a recession or a slowdown in the U.S. economy (with the usual international ripple effect) based on past experience. Because he noted that the curve is not as steep as on previous occasions (he illustrated a chart), he believes that only a slowdown in the U.S. will occur, but that these indicators as well as other economic indicators, will keep the FED on hold in the next meeting. This is extremely important for us to consider, because if this scenario plays out, then the I-fund should be the beneficiary. Regarding Mr. Harris' exclusion of Japan, he did not give any additional information. Even with my limited knowledge, I believe that he could be wrong on Japan, because other analysts have stated that the Japanese consumer will keep their economy going, and that the China economy will substitute the U.S. economy as a substitute for Japan to sell their export goods (which they now depend heavily on the U.S. to buy their exports). So, even with a slowdown in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy, the rate of growth in China will continue to be spectacular or above-normal; and it is key to note that Japan is investing heavily in China. We have to keep watching the potential effect of unknown factors and geopolitical events! P.S. I don't have all the economic numbers that came out now at 8:32 A.M. (EST), but I just heard that unit costs came higher than expected (This could be considered inflationary by traders, and thus could be one of the catalysts to start a correction).
Foriegn markets down big right now and dollar up. If Europe and asia react the typical way to sharp U.S. declines, they will be down tomorrow as well. The excerpt below offers the opinion that the upward spike in the dollar should be short lived. Timing the I fund is always hard, but if foreign markets are in fact down again tomorrow, perhaps Friday would offer a short term I fund play. Opinions??
---------------------------------------
CURRENCIES
Dollar gains before Fed's Beige book
Last Update: 10:48 AM ET Sep 6, 2006
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
"The dollar seems to be getting a bit of a boost from the higher unit labor costs, but this should prove short-lived and is probably more a follow-through of current dollar strength," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital.
"The Fed is most certainly not about to change course based on [second-quarter] unit labor costs, so the fundamental basis for buying the dollar on this report is slim indeed," Dolan said.
---------------------------------------
CURRENCIES
Dollar gains before Fed's Beige book
Last Update: 10:48 AM ET Sep 6, 2006
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
"The dollar seems to be getting a bit of a boost from the higher unit labor costs, but this should prove short-lived and is probably more a follow-through of current dollar strength," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital.
"The Fed is most certainly not about to change course based on [second-quarter] unit labor costs, so the fundamental basis for buying the dollar on this report is slim indeed," Dolan said.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I'd definitely wait on the sidelines in G till tommorrow. We may get a negative FV tonight but if foriegn markets react to move down it could continue tommorrow. Actually the foriegn markets were already down prior to US markets this morning so the effect tommorrow may be less than usual. There is also the possibility of a foriegn bounce if US markets turn around prior to end of today but we likely won't know that till after our deadline. I think the safer play is to stay put for today. The funds are giving back only 3-5 days worth of gains at this point. I think they could all have a day or two more of negative and still be just a healthy pull back.
James48843
Well-known member
right back to about where we were on thursday last week.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
EAFE says down 1.154%. Gilligan right on again. And before 9:00 A.M. Pacific time. That is very valuable information to know at that time of day. Your record is proven and if you should stumble on an estimate no one here should hold you responsible. Intentions are the key. Good job! I really appreciate it and if we were on a poker site I would transfer a few bucks to your account. Of course I would challenge you and try to win it back but like I said........... Intentions.
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