Playing the I fund

[clester]

Japan is down over 2%, UK down close to 1%, and most everything else in the I fund is down. However the dollar is weaker by about 1%. The efa ticker shows EFA up over 1%.

I don't think that will translate into a 1% gain in the I fund. It seems to me it shoul be close to flat with the dollar ofsetting the stocks.

The dollar usually reverses after a big day, but not always. If US up big today I fund should follow. The dollar is the question.

The MSCI chart of the EAFE looks pretty impressive with a long uptrend in place even with the last few days.

Just some of my thoughts. Anyone else have any ideas?

 

[Wheels]

I agree with you. The dollar fell a little AFTER the EAFE closed Friday. And it is down today. And the EFA went down way more than the EAFE on Friday. That is why you are seeing the EFA up today. Also don't forget the TSP board owes us about 8 or 9 cents from Friday. So that is why I fund losses won't be so bad today (although I don't know if it'll flat as you say).

If US markets are up today, foreign markets will probably bounce tomorrow, however the dollar may bounce too so I don't know if it's worth chasing.

Dave
<><

 

[clester]

If US markets are up today, foreign markets will probably bounce tomorrow, however the dollar may bounce too so I don't know if it's worth chasing.

Dave
<><

That's the question? I'm leaning toward adding a little to my I fund.

 

[CheapShot]

China may Unload Some U.S. Debt

China may begin unloading some U.S.debt this week and the near future, they are looking into increasing there interest in Euro's and other currencies, could have an effect on the U.S Dollar causing it to fall a little, maybe be enough to bump the I Fund a little.

 

[Ichiro]

playing the I fund

With the strength of the Japanese yen forcasted to be 105 yen to the US dollars by year-end and Japan's economy finally improving, we should be heavily be invested in the I fund. But, the major fund to benefit will be the C fund since majority of US companies sales will be overseas. We will see this major increase in sales starting with the first quarter (31 March).

 

[clester]

MSCI shows EAFE uo .489% for today.

 

[Wheels]

Plus I still believe the TSP board owes us about cents from a revaluation on Friday. Could be a 14 or 15 cent gain today.

Dave
<><

 

[mlk_man]

MSCI shows EAFE uo .489% for today.

I think I'm regretting going into the I fund today already..........

 

[TiCKed]

I agree with you. The dollar fell a little AFTER the EAFE closed Friday. And it is down today. And the EFA went down way more than the EAFE on Friday. That is why you are seeing the EFA up today. Also don't forget the TSP board owes us about 8 or 9 cents from Friday. So that is why I fund losses won't be so bad today (although I don't know if it'll flat as you say).

If US markets are up today, foreign markets will probably bounce tomorrow, however the dollar may bounce too so I don't know if it's worth chasing.

Dave
<><

My Vanguard "Total International" fund just posted results for the day: +1.30%.

It is a wonder.

 

[Soldat]

18 cents today. Good work guys.

 

[bkrownd]

I think I'm regretting going into the I fund today already..........

Yeah, up a whole 1% - a total disappointment. Well, at least I got a big chunk at 17.93 on my payroll contrib last week.

 

[oldschool]

Seems to me retail investors in Japan are feeling more margin pressures that will make it hard for the market there to do anything positive through the rest of this week. Weak rebound, if you could call it that, for the major U.S. indexes today, so pressure building against those hanging onto underwater positions in the hopes this decline a fluke. If bad econ news comes on Wed re housing sales, maybe it's "look out below" for the C, S, I....

 

[clester]

Japan up 260 pts so far. Dollar flat. c'mon europe!!

 

[bkrownd]

Japan up 260 pts so far. Dollar flat. c'mon europe!!

I guess that mean the I Fund will be down 2% tomorrow? %)

 

[vectorman]

I guess that mean the I Fund will be down 2% tomorrow? %)

Since it paid out big tonight, TSP police may discourage timing by not paying nothing tomorrow night, or they may make it alittle negative just to have a good laugh..

 

[clester]

What to do now

The dollar is giving back a little (as expected) and international stock markets are up so far.

Good earnings from Mickey D's. I think 5 Dow componets report. Could be a good day for U.S. and that will help the I fund adjusters give us a little help. I hope!

Should I stay in the I fund? Hmm.

I don't want to buy into C and I on an up day.

We'll see what happens this morning.

Mornin' Vectorman. Don't work too hard today.

 

[Wizard]

Dollar has reversed and is moving up smartly.

Until there is some sort of trend that is longer then 12 hours I will not play I fund. Hey you could get lucky. On the other hand.....

 

[clester]

U.S markets up quickly this morning. Will that carry over to Internationals?
Europe is flat, dollar down a little. So far all we have is Japan.

If we finish strong in U.S we should see carry through in I fund for tomorow.
JMHO

 

[Wizard]

Action today: Yields up/dollar up is telling me that the smart players. Which are not stock investors. The bond and currency traders are saying the rate hike on Jan 31 is a lock and they are starting to prepare for that. If you want a good indicator watch what they do. . My guess is we start a sell off in stocks soon.

 

[Greg]

Since it paid out big tonight, TSP police may discourage timing by not paying nothing tomorrow night, or they may make it alittle negative just to have a good laugh..

I disagree with your statement that they overpaid the I-fund share price on Monday-23rd COB.

According to my numbers, they underpriced it on Friday-20 by between 0.5-0.8% and then on Monday-23 by about the same percentage.
So today (Monday COB) the I-fund is back to being priced fairly.

I did not look into these numbers until this morning. If I had looked yesterday and saw the share price was low by 0.5%, then I would not have sold my 86% I-fund. But I lucked out in that they made it right on the day that I sold.

I need to enter these numbers daily and review them before I do an IFT.