Playing the I fund

Sort by newest Sort by date
Do you really think we are going into a recession? The economy appears very
strong to me. Even gas prices are dropping. What do you base your opinion on. Not being confrontational just inquiring.
 
vic said:
Do you really think we are going into a recession? The economy appears very
strong to me.
Click to expand...
Many think a recession is on the way because 1) Inverted yield curve has preceeded slow down in economy - we have one now. 2) Fed tightning cycles have preceeded slow downs blamed on the Fed over doing it. We have had only one magical soft landing following a tightning cycle.

Don't let me put words in your mouth FT, if you have other reasons chime in.
 
A recession is defined, informally but not officially, as two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) growth in the gross domestic product.

You have the negative opinions and the positive opinions, the truth probably somewhere in between.............;)
 
Due to the fact that uncertainty and apprehension can have a negative impact on everyone's mindset and outlook, yesterday I posted the following message with the idea that we could have access to the opinion of a very respected Strategist from J.P. Morgan. Hope this helps to understand whether or not the yiel curve is sufficiently inverted as to forecast a recession. Here it is: I want to share with all of you my views going forward. I still believe that the I-fund will outperform all others going forward and that the dollar will decline against other currencies during the next few months. There will be some ups and downs, but that is the trend that I believe will continue. However, I believe that before we can rally, there should be a correction, which might be mild or deep, and which many technical analysts insist is ripe to occur (perhaps starting in the next couple of days!). Maybe we will see a mild correction now, and a deeper correction in October. All of these, I hope that we can trade effectively. This morning at around 5:20 A.M. EST, I was watching CNBC Worldwide Exchange. A very respected market strategist from J.P. Morgan was interviewed. His name, Tim Harris, I believe he is British, expressed his reasoned opinion. In response to a question regarding what he considers the best allocation going forward, Mr. Harris stated that he is underweight the U.S., and that he likes Asia (Ex-Japan), and also likes Europe going forward. He addressed the inverted yield curve. He stated that when the bond yield curve steepens between the 10-year note, and I think he said the 2-year bond, that this presages either a recession or a slowdown in the U.S. economy (with the usual international ripple effect) based on past experience. Because he noted that the curve is not as steep as on previous occasions (he illustrated a chart), he believes that only a slowdown in the U.S. will occur, but that these indicators as well as other economic indicators, will keep the FED on hold in the next meeting. This is extremely important for us to consider, because if this scenario plays out, then the I-fund should be the beneficiary. Regarding Mr. Harris' exclusion of Japan, he did not give any additional information. Even with my limited knowledge, I believe that he could be wrong on Japan, because other analysts have stated that the Japanese consumer will keep their economy going, and that the China economy will substitute the U.S. economy as a substitute for Japan to sell their export goods (which they now depend heavily on the U.S. to buy their exports). So, even with a slowdown in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy, the rate of growth in China will continue to be spectacular or above-normal; and it is key to note that Japan is investing heavily in China. We have to keep watching the potential effect of unknown factors and geopolitical events!
 
Ah, take another little piece of my heart why don't ya Sugar. Glad we finally met. What's wrong with a price of $19.70 or lower - I accumulate.
 
Birchtree said:
Ah, take another little piece of my heart why don't ya Sugar. Glad we finally met. What's wrong with a price of $19.70 or lower - I accumulate.
Click to expand...

Falling prices are fine if you're not in. But I would venture to say that anyone else that was in C,S, or I other than you thought yesterday was SUPER. Or that today was (insert celebratory word here). It will present a nice opportunity but to say it was super while losing seems a little.........uh...........never mind I just realized I'm trying to explain myself and after looking in the mirror I can see no explanation.
 
Pilgrim,

I've owned small caps and international as a family strategy - they encompass my wife's defined contribution plan. And she has more money in her plan than I do in my TSP. We bought these on the bottom back in 2002 when it was not the smart thing to do. I remain 100% leveraged to the C fund.

Sugar,

It's best to try and not understand - why ask for more complications.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

M
What is the New I Fund Ticker Symbol?
Replies
1
Views
139
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
The I-Fund 2024
Replies
6
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The stock market dismisses weak tech earnings and rallies on lower yields
Replies
0
Views
134
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks bounce back, but Google's earnings may get in the way
Replies
0
Views
123
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A rally, tariffs, and Apple earnings
Replies
0
Views
208
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top