Market Talk / Oct. 29 - Nov. 4

[James48843]

It's hard to imagine recession when I see people shopping like there's no tomorrow and taking out home equity loans - or could that lead to recession?

Only when people suddenly can't keep up with the payments.

Take a two-income family, one of them loses a job, and WHAM!

The picture changes overnight.

 

[SkiUtah]

3:45 PM.
NAZ in making another run to 2375, looks like we will run out time today, but tomorrow could be the day to "ride the steroid bull."

 

[fabijo]

Look at the ten year note (^TNX) -

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^tnx;range=6m;compare=agg;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=

it looks like a double bottom reversal pattern is forming....it's very tentative at this point, but.....what would that say about the bond market's ability to predict a recession?

Yup, I'm looking at it. We would have to wait and see if it forms the second bottom, or if it just passes right through it. Only time will tell!

 

[Show-me]

Anyone care to peruse and give an opinion of the “Bearish Harami”. I know………not very up lifting reading.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p77472256582

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlestickbearreversal1.html

 

[Show-me]

Anyone care to peruse and give an opinion of the “Bearish Harami”. I know………not very up lifting reading.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p77472256582

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlestickbearreversal1.html

Never mind, it doesn’t fit the criteria. Swing and a miss!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
October 31, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles & Tea Leaves

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Market waiting! Will it be trick or treat?

Con-Yak...................................Job worries affect Consumer confidence.

Jester-Yak................................Another day of indecision!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1377.94, up +0.01
Stops......................................Alert: 1376. Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at -1.289.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 73.12 [20] dropping/cooling.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................58.73, up +0.37
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.

 

[TiCKed]

Re: Daily Yak

Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 73.12 [20] dropping/cooling.

So, has the last few days been the "no pain (no gain)" way of shedding our Overbought status?

I notice it's dropped from 89+ to 73+ on the Spaf report in three days....

Hope we're gearing up to take off again.

(I'm an optimist!)

 

[Show-me]

After a decline or long black candlestick, a doji indicates that selling pressure may be diminishing and the downtrend could be nearing an end. Even though the bears are starting to lose control of the decline, further strength is required to confirm any reversal. Bullish confirmation could come from a gap up, long white candlestick or advance above the long black candlestick's open. After a long black candlestick and doji, traders should be on the alert for a potential morning doji star.

 

[Birchtree]

Now that we've had our rolling correction today could be another day of impulsing upward. I'm ready for the Transports to kick up to 5,000 and give us a Dow Theory Primary BUY signal confirmation. Add some more honey so we can pull in some more bears - the more the better. Gore time and I don't mean global warming.

 

[mayday]

Now that we've had our rolling correction today could be another day of impulsing upward. I'm ready for the Transports to kick up to 5,000 and give us a Dow Theory Primary BUY signal confirmation. Add some more honey so we can pull in some more bears - the more the better. Gore time and I don't mean global warming.

I love your puns Birch.LMAO

 

[Show-me]

Veteran's Day, November 10, 2006 — Although November 10th is a Federal holiday, the stock and bond markets will be open. In addition, we have been advised by the Department of the Treasury that it will be open to accept our investments in the G Fund. Therefore, the TSP will be operating on a limited business schedule on November 10th.

• Share prices will be calculated as of close of business on November 10th and account balances will be updated.

• Transactions made on this Web site or the ThriftLine by 12 noon eastern time on Friday, November 10th will be processed that night.

The TSP call centers will be closed on November 10th.

 

[ATCJeff]

Futures looking good...

08:30 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures trade gets a boost within the last 30 minutes and suggest a stronger open for the cash market after data suggest Friday s closely-watched employment report will show a larger than expected rise in October nonfarm payrolls. With economic growth concerns being the market's pre-occupation of late, the recently released monthly ADP employment report showing a modest rebound in hiring is helping to ease concerns about the strength of the economy. Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.

 

[atcsat64]

I love your puns Birch.LMAO

He's got my vote, too! Keep 'em comin', Dennis!

 

[ATCJeff]

And getting better...

09:00 ET Dow , Nasdaq , S&P : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Just a day after the Dow turned in its strongest October performance (+3.4%) in three years, the stage remains set for stocks to pick up where they left off. Aside from more strong earnings news, falling oil prices and renewed optimism about the pace of economic growth, some M&A activity is also presenting investors with a vote of confidence. Caremark Rx (CMX) and CVS Corp (CVS) have confirmed they are in talks regarding a possible "merger of equals." Nasdaq at... NYSE Adv/Dec 0/0... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 0/0.

 

[James48843]

What gives?

Why is everything tanking?

 

[SkiUtah]

Head Fake.

 

[James48843]

Here is a bad omen:

I just looked at what my TSP balance was as of the close of business last night.

Get this:
$266,666.02

On HALLOWEEN NIGHT my balance has THAT many 6's in it.

If that isn't an indicator to bail out to safety, I don't know what it!!!!!

 

[nnuut]

ISM Institute of Supply Management Index down more than expected Prior 52.9 Oct. 51.2 = -1.7 the market doesn't seem to like that very much. That is effecting the dollar EUR, GBP and JPY dollar down -.2% at 10:25 EST, might help the "I" fund some but we know that overseas markets seem to follow the USA markets down the rabbit hole! If oil supplies make a good showing it could offset this down turn some, just have to wait and seeee!
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

 

[smine]

James, I see your point, but hey, money's money! It will change soon enough, up or down. Looks like you have a nice amount collected; congrats.

 

[Maxximus]

Been lurking forever, finally decided to jump in.

Birch should love this. http://www.navellier.com/files/special_letter.pdf

Max