Market Talk / Oct. 29 - Nov. 4

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Nnuut,

Now that you are in, the game is to shake your confidence. How much will you be able to endure.
 
Just heard a floor trader on Bloomberg say that a lot of the traders were covering their positions, I just checked the put/call ratio and VIX and they both moved pretty good today. I’m not sure about this, but could a market exit be made by smart money in a way that doesn’t alert the dumb money or would they even care?
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
October 30, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles & Tea Leaves

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube down 4%, reported as lowest since July 2005.

Con-Yak...................................Indicators turning down!

Jester-Yak................................But still a day of Doji indecision!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1377.93, up +0.59
Stops......................................Alert: 1376. Trail: 1363
Trend (MACD-Hist)....................decreasing at -0.758.
Overbought/sold (S-STO)...........[80] 82.56 [20] dropping.

Lube (NYM) Closed at.................58.36, dn -2.39
Oil Markers...............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles.............................Yellow.
 
Oldcoin said:
Just heard a floor trader on Bloomberg say that a lot of the traders were covering their positions, I just checked the put/call ratio and VIX and they both moved pretty good today. I’m not sure about this, but could a market exit be made by smart money in a way that doesn’t alert the dumb money or would they even care?
Click to expand...

I saw it happening on the market overview today.....I think the adv/dec'rs change leading position twice today....very mixed.....
 
You know, even with this give and take here- the "F" fund is starting to look very good again. Solid the last couple of days. While the "I" is bouncing back today, the "S" and "C" aren't quite as strong as they have been in the recent past. Perhaps a good chance to reexamine the merits of the "F" fund.

I think that may become my parking lot again soon.
 
You know, I believe I'm seeing the market weakening already....but I remind you that this is an early observation and I could be wrong....we are in a time of radical moves market wide so you really never know...do we....;)
 
11:30 a.m. NAZ bumped up against the 2375, and pulled back for another try to "break on thru to the other side". If it breaks through we are off and running again. If not, chop/chop kinda day.
 
James48843 said:
You know, even with this give and take here- the "F" fund is starting to look very good again. Solid the last couple of days. While the "I" is bouncing back today, the "S" and "C" aren't quite as strong as they have been in the recent past. Perhaps a good chance to reexamine the merits of the "F" fund.

I think that may become my parking lot again soon.
Click to expand...

I've noticed the solidness of the F fund, too. I read somewhere that the bond market tends to be more "right" than the stock market. Is there any merit to that? If smart money has been creating the bond market rally, could they know that we are headed for some sort of recession coming up next year? It's hard to imagine recession when I see people shopping like there's no tomorrow and taking out home equity loans - or could that lead to recession?
 
If the Dems win the coming elections and wind up controlling both houses, bet your bottom dollar... the dumb money party's over. The markets will recoil for a later strike in FY07. Just my dumb money opinion. :notrust:
fabijo said:
I've noticed the solidness of the F fund, too. I read somewhere that the bond market tends to be more "right" than the stock market. Is there any merit to that? If smart money has been creating the bond market rally, could they know that we are headed for some sort of recession coming up next year? It's hard to imagine recession when I see people shopping like there's no tomorrow and taking out home equity loans - or could that lead to recession?
Click to expand...
 
fabijo said:
I've noticed the solidness of the F fund, too. I read somewhere that the bond market tends to be more "right" than the stock market. Is there any merit to that? If smart money has been creating the bond market rally, could they know that we are headed for some sort of recession coming up next year? It's hard to imagine recession when I see people shopping like there's no tomorrow and taking out home equity loans - or could that lead to recession?
Click to expand...

Look at the ten year note (^TNX) -

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^tnx;range=6m;compare=agg;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=

it looks like a double bottom reversal pattern is forming....it's very tentative at this point, but.....what would that say about the bond market's ability to predict a recession?
 
looks like the 10 yr yield has support around 4.55%, that's about another 1.3% to the down side. It crossed in to oversold yesterday, and as the addage goes 'what's overbought/oversold, can stay overbought/oversold'. And (AGG) IS breaking out over it's previous high close.
 
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