Market Talk / Nov. 12 - Nov. 18

[James48843]

Housing construction drops bigger than expected- drops 14.6% -

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061117/economy.html?.v=6

 

[mlk_man]

"Green coffee" just refers to raw beans - that haven't been roasted yet...but I spose you knew that.

Don't drink coffee, I'm high on life....................

Or perhaps something else that's also green......................

 

[Birchtree]

The housing bubble is slowly and orderly being dissipated - a healthy move. The NYMEX is now trading at 138 up 80 points. That will spark some interest.

 

[Pilgrim]

Dollar falls on talk of problems at hedge fund




By Wanfeng Zhou
Last Update: 10:47 AM ET Nov 17, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen in mid-morning trade Friday on market talk that a major hedge fund is in trouble."Rumors of a major U.S. hedge fund collapse appear to be behind the dollar's latest dip," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. Others traders said the speculation centers on Citadel Investment Group. The euro was last up 0.3% at $1.2833, while the dollar fell 0.5% at 117.60 yen.

 

[airlift]

This is reminiscent of 1998, when Long Term Capital investments caused a big correction in the markets. Anyone know how big a hedge fund this is, or what is to be expected in terms of an additional negative impact on the stock market?.

Dollar falls on talk of problems at hedge fund




By Wanfeng Zhou
Last Update: 10:47 AM ET Nov 17, 2006

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen in mid-morning trade Friday on market talk that a major hedge fund is in trouble."Rumors of a major U.S. hedge fund collapse appear to be behind the dollar's latest dip," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. Others traders said the speculation centers on Citadel Investment Group. The euro was last up 0.3% at $1.2833, while the dollar fell 0.5% at 117.60 yen.

 

[Birchtree]

No impact on stocks - being a loser is part of business - they play a dangerous game with outperformance profits potential. There seems to be ample liquidity to absorb any failures - and the market keeps moving.

 

[airlift]

Birch,

Thanks for your opinion

No impact on stocks - being a loser is part of business - they play a dangerous game with outperformance profits potential. There seems to be ample liquidity to absorb any failures - and the market keeps moving.

 

[Fivetears]

Birch, what's your take on the next course of action involving an individual "hedgehog" that looses his or her backside in an H-fund. Do they liquidate personal investment assets to cover the loss. or just sit back and kiss it (the $$) good-bye?

No impact on stocks - being a loser is part of business - they play a dangerous game with outperformance profits potential. There seems to be ample liquidity to absorb any failures - and the market keeps moving.

 

[Birchtree]

Probably eat it as a capital loss and use the loss to offset other gains - or carry it forward until there are other gains. There are advantages in having a loss.

 

[Fivetears]

...and some serious capital loss it is.
Thanks for the input.

Probably eat it as a capital loss and use the loss to offset other gains - or carry it forward until there are other gains. There are advantages in having a loss.

 

[Birchtree]

There is no capital loss reduction in real estate - and now the new home inventories are up 33% from 2005.

 

[Fivetears]

Assets under management of the hedge fund industry totaled $1.225 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2006.
At end-2005, three-quarters of European hedge fund investments, totalling $300bn, were managed within the UK, the vast majority from London. Assets managed out of London grew more than four-fold between 2002 and 2005 from $61bn to $225bn.
Australia was the most important centre for the management of Asia-Pacific hedge funds. Managers located there accounted for around a quarter of the $115bn in Asia-Pacific hedge funds’ assets in 2005.
Either the funds can be offered to individuals with more than $5,000,000 in investment assets.
Hedge funds are sold via private placement to individuals who are "accredited investors" (those who have total incomes of over US$200,000 per year or a net worth of over US$1,000,000). :blink:

This is reminiscent of 1998, when Long Term Capital investments caused a big correction in the markets. Anyone know how big a hedge fund this is, or what is to be expected in terms of an additional negative impact on the stock market?.

 

[Fivetears]

The one tanking is probably an Oil H-Fund. More Oil H-Funds will likely follow if the barrel price doesn't rocket back up to an $80 - $90.00 range.

 

[Fivetears]

The full top 10 list of hedge fund earners:

1. T.Boone Pickens - estimated 2005 earnings $1.5bn +
2. Stevie Cohen, SAC Capital Advisers - $1bn +
3. James Simons, Renaissance Technologies Corp. - $900m - $1bn
4. Paul Tudor Jones, Tudor Investment Corp. - $800m - $900m
5. Stephen Feinberg, Cerberus Capital Management - $500 - $600m
6. Bruce Kovner, Caxton Associates - $500m - $600m
7. Eddie Lampert, ESL Investments - $500m - $600m
8. David Shaw, D.E. Shaw & Co - $400m - $500m
9. Jeffrey Gendell, Tontine Partners - $300m - $400m
10. Louis Bacon, Moore Capital Management - $300m - $350m

 

[FundSurfer]

If it was an Oil H-fund that would explain the impact to the dollar. H-fund has to sell oil stocks/futures/etc. Prices further go down. Cost of oil goes down. US trade imbalance goes down. Value of the dollar goes up.... wait a minute, that didn't work.... hmmm. If it was an oil hedge fund that goes down, that could be good for the market. Bad for oil stocks, good overall.

 

[Birchtree]

This is nice - buying on the close.

 

[Fivetears]

Every little bit counts; Wife's 401k got it; 100% S&P500

 

[fabijo]

This is nice - buying on the close.

That's right. Your enthusiasm is starting to rub off. I am not sure if there will be a pullback until next year sometime, if that.

 

[Birchtree]

fabijo,

We continue to unwind in what may be the greatest market rally of all time both in time and scope. The trend has been undeniable - a great lesson in what a third wave looks and feels like...we should all learn from it. Money flow is sure being kind to all sectors right now - this is a classic Elliott third wave to the upside. This is where we might see a possible melt up - I keep waiting for my 300 points up. Snort!

 

[Birchtree]

Surprising enough I have made minor dollars in the last two days because of the internal rolling correction. The indexes just may not exercise any significant price decay. These numbers should send most bears into hibernation and those with enough temerity to go against the trend will end up toast. There's nothing yet suggesting that we're close to finishing. I'm waiting on the Transports to punch through 4998.95 - next week for sure.