Market Talk / June 25 - July 1

[tsptalk]

This stock options thing is getting big. You may want to google that and read up on it.

Jim Cramer seems very concerned with margin levels. Any thoughts on that Wizard?

 

[tsptalk]

Could not even last to 9:35am.

Funny how that works.

You have to admit, so far this has been a weak attempt by the bears today.

 

[Pilgrim]

More inflation news??

Last Update: 10:08 AM ET Jun 30, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - An index of business activity in the Chicago region fell in June, while inflation pressures accelerated, according to NAPM-Chicago. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 56.5% in June from 61.5 in May, the private group said Friday. The drop was greater than expected. Economists were forecasting the Chicago PMI index to only slip to 59.4%. Readings over 50 indicate growth in the region. The prices paid index rose to 89.0% from 76.9% in May. This is the highest level since July 1988. The new orders index fell to 57.2% from 69.6%. The national business index will be released next Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.

If the national reading, due on Monday, shows an uptick in production costs, will it trigger a brief pullback? Psychology is everything right now, so who knows.

 

[Birchtree]

You want 1995 - well just maybe you'll get it your way.

We can hedge and consider 2003 as alternate - either way the bull will be on the march. Profits and more profits as far into the future as one dares look.

Dennis -permabull #1

 

[Pilgrim]

You want 1995 - well just maybe you'll get it your way.

We can hedge and consider 2003 as alternate - either way the bull will be on the march. Profits and more profits as far into the future as one dares look.

Dennis -permabull #1

Not really. All I'm trying to do is time a one or two day pullback in an uptrending market. Normally, not worth playing, I'm just in the mood. For the long run, I'm not quite the bull you are but I'm getting close.

 

[Spaf]

.....but as I have mentioned that has usually meant gains for the first week in July......

Have been looking at fundamentals and indicators.
Short term...expect lube to remain high, till the July 4 driving period calms down.
The economy looks good. But, beware of bear talk, as they have been chewing on the pessimisms.
The weekly $SPX chart has socks climbing out of the correction, on the path to recovery.
Long term looks pretty good, with the Fed calming down.
Hurricanes can be a problem, hopefully we won't have a repeat of last year, but, learning that everyone needs a evacuation plan, whether you are on the coast or in the market.

 

[Birchtree]

Pilgrim,

That post was ment for Tom, who has rejoined the game. It's value added to ones portfolio from now and until the game changes again.

 

[Birchtree]

Spaf,

Couldn't help notice you are still in overdrive - heading where? We need more acceleration - snort. Bring on some altitude - get serious with these bears. I think it was Melody G that said she never met a sucker's rally she didn't like.

 

[Birchtree]

Spaf,

Have you noticed the peculiar smell coming from the Dow Transports. Smells reminiscent of the BULL. The index is only 82 points away from a new all time high. Stuff is being transported and fuel costs are being mitigated. Um, sure smells like a dance hall full of wholesome wall flowers.

 

[Wizard]

Jim Cramer seems very concerned with margin levels. Any thoughts on that Wizard?

The issue is the back dating of stock options, i.e. pick a date where the stock price was higher and excise options for that date.

 

[Wizard]

You have to admit, so far this has been a weak attempt by the bears today.

I would say a pretty weak follow through on that "rally".

Need some more dressing for that welted salad? :worried:

Got to make the bonus.

 

[Wizard]

You want 1995 - well just maybe you'll get it your way.

1995 the 30 year yield was not under the overnight rate. :embarrest:

Crude in 1995 was $18 a barrel and the saving rate was not negative.

Saving rate for May 2006 was (1.7%) annualized that means consumers spending 20.4% more then they are making.

That is substainable...........................................NOT. :embarrest:

 

[Wizard]

Spaf,

Have you noticed the peculiar smell coming from the Dow Transports. Smells reminiscent of the BULL. The index is only 82 points away from a new all time high. Stuff is being transported and fuel costs are being mitigated. Um, sure smells like a dance hall full of wholesome wall flowers.

Look at the chart.

Then say my right shoulder hurts. :embarrest:

[URL="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$djusit"]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$djusit

 

[Birchtree]

It's not what you think - this is a leg to show. More muscular and trimmed for power. This leg can do. A Dow Theory buy around the corner - that will bring the fuel to enhance the power. Some refer to it as Bull character - snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Well I will say this much - some days it just doesn't pay to own that C fund.

 

[robo]

Dave's Daily
Thursday June 29, 2006
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MARKET COMMENT

June 29, 2006


There’s nothing like higher interest rates to make investors happy. That combined with end-of quarter window dressing gets the bulls pumped-up. Seriously though investors must have been fearful of a larger interest rate increase these past few weeks and when that didn’t transpire today, they bought stocks squeezing shorts.

Tomorrow should also prove interesting since many traders have probably already checked-out to go to whatever summer digs they maintain for the holiday. They’ll leave a few resting orders to keep things propped if they can.

It’s that simple.


http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[roguewave]

If you don't own stay away.

If you own sell now.

There is only risk to the downside.

Wait until after the foreign central banks are down raising rates.

Still sticking to this one? Rates will continue on up and so will the price of gold. Paulson and Bernanke will move heaven and earth to protect gov. bonds and the dollar at the expense of every other player. Equity players are the least of their concerns. In fact, there's a HUGE pool of funds just waiting to be tapped at the right time to fund other adventures. These pool of funds are referred to as the DOW; NASDAQ; And S&P 500. In terms of rate hikes, we're on our way to the 6's, 7's and then, they'll have to get serious.

 

[Wizard]

Still sticking to this one? Rates will continue on up and so will the price of gold.

Yeap, as soon as the quiet period is over they will start jawboning how everyone "got the statement wrong" again.

Remember last one? Gold went from 660 to 725 after the statement then the "tough talk" started and gold went to 570.

Maria "The MoneyHoney" was the mouthpiece.

Fool me once - shame on me, fool me twice, shame on ....

Any rally is a chance to off load. Look for that tough talk to start next week.

USD can not break 84. We are a borrow and spend economy.

 

[tsptalk]

Strange closing action - The Dow tanks 40 points and Russell 2000 soars. I don't know if it's a misprint but I see the Russell up over 10 points today, or almost 1.5%, with over 4 of those points gained in the last 5 minutes. At the same time the Dow went from flat to -40.

 

[Wizard]

Well I will say this much - some days it just doesn't pay to own that C fund.

Until everyone and their brother wants to "catch the next rally. We are going no where.

Gads you should of read some of the boards yesterday. You would of thought the fed fund rate was dropped not raised.