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Market Talk / June 25 - July 1
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
TiCKed said:
I know what you mean.
I was out on travel for two weeks when the bottom fell out- and lost my shirt because I was without internet access and couldn't jump out when I should have. When I got back to civilization- at least I was smart enough to let it ride again for a while, and now looky here what goes on today.
Thank goodness!
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Stampede! Fed releases doves; rates end nears. GDP: 5.6%, up. CPInflation: 2%, dn. Economy in good health.
Con-Yak..................................Lube holds high ground above 73.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1272.87, up +26.87
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.032, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-6.078, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........69.22, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 56.08 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.52, up +1.33
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +4-1, Lube > 70]
Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1260. Trail: 1247.
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 29, 2006 Closing
Daily Edition
June 29, 2006 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Stampede! Fed releases doves; rates end nears. GDP: 5.6%, up. CPInflation: 2%, dn. Economy in good health.
Con-Yak..................................Lube holds high ground above 73.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1272.87, up +26.87
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.032, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-6.078, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........69.22, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 56.08 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.52, up +1.33
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +4-1, Lube > 70]
Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1260. Trail: 1247.
The_Technician
Active member
Yo!!!
Couldn't make it to post for the last couple of days......heck didn't see the market action either except at the end of day.....looks like it turned its head around.....that was good, I'm sure Birchy, you was sweating.....:worried:
Although it has turned its head, I can't say anything right away but its really high on the funds for the moment.....I would be expecting another drop back down to reality.....but then who knows when, I can't tell right now......gotta get some data loaded, probably be Monday before that happens......so thumbs up!!!
Couldn't make it to post for the last couple of days......heck didn't see the market action either except at the end of day.....looks like it turned its head around.....that was good, I'm sure Birchy, you was sweating.....:worried:
Although it has turned its head, I can't say anything right away but its really high on the funds for the moment.....I would be expecting another drop back down to reality.....but then who knows when, I can't tell right now......gotta get some data loaded, probably be Monday before that happens......so thumbs up!!!
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
This guy seems to really like the outlook for the next two months. He wouldn't bait us would he?:worried:
Forget Bernanke. Earnings are key
Now that the latest Fed rate hike is out of the way, corporate profits could surprise - again.
By Nelson D. Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer
June 29 2006: 6:15 PM EDT
(FORTUNE) -- The biggest question mark now for Wall Street isn't higher interest rates - they're already factored in - but rising earnings.
With the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate hike out of the way, the focus will quickly shift to second-quarter results, which are due out starting the week of July 10.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/lookahead.fortune/index.htm
Forget Bernanke. Earnings are key
Now that the latest Fed rate hike is out of the way, corporate profits could surprise - again.
By Nelson D. Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer
June 29 2006: 6:15 PM EDT
(FORTUNE) -- The biggest question mark now for Wall Street isn't higher interest rates - they're already factored in - but rising earnings.
With the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate hike out of the way, the focus will quickly shift to second-quarter results, which are due out starting the week of July 10.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/lookahead.fortune/index.htm
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
So Burntankle hinted that there may be an end to rate increases!
Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at EKN Financial Services said: "The Fed is still concerned about inflation, but also seems to be pointing toward an ending of the rate-hike cycle."
He added the change might not mean that the Fed will not put in another quarter-point increase at its August meeting, but clearly shows that an end is approaching.
However, Bill Tedford, fixed-income strategist at Stephens Capital Management, said the statement carried a strong hint that the Fed is through lifting rates.
Tedford pointed to the fact that the statement directly said growth is moderating; the most previous statement merely said growth could be moderating. "I do not anticipate the Fed hiking rates in a moderating economy," he said.
Mike Holland of the Holland Balanced Fund said that the statement's language alleviated investor fears. "Earlier there had been fears that the statement might be goofy, but the wording here is responsible and does not lend to an interpretations that the Fed will do something to screw up the economy." I think he said Cooooo Coooooo!
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Domestic&guid=%7B48691F88%2D51E8%2D4E10%2D9E95%2D62BC01F43278%7D
Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at EKN Financial Services said: "The Fed is still concerned about inflation, but also seems to be pointing toward an ending of the rate-hike cycle."
He added the change might not mean that the Fed will not put in another quarter-point increase at its August meeting, but clearly shows that an end is approaching.
However, Bill Tedford, fixed-income strategist at Stephens Capital Management, said the statement carried a strong hint that the Fed is through lifting rates.
Tedford pointed to the fact that the statement directly said growth is moderating; the most previous statement merely said growth could be moderating. "I do not anticipate the Fed hiking rates in a moderating economy," he said.
Mike Holland of the Holland Balanced Fund said that the statement's language alleviated investor fears. "Earlier there had been fears that the statement might be goofy, but the wording here is responsible and does not lend to an interpretations that the Fed will do something to screw up the economy." I think he said Cooooo Coooooo!
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Domestic&guid=%7B48691F88%2D51E8%2D4E10%2D9E95%2D62BC01F43278%7D
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Just thought I'd post the current short term and long term charts I have.
View attachment 989
View attachment 990
View attachment 991
View attachment 989
View attachment 990
View attachment 991
Mike
Active member
In an msn.com article about today's market action, I spotted the following:
"Many money managers and stock experts see the selling pressure that hit the market in late May and early June resuming after the July 4 holiday."
They very well could be wrong, but it's something to consider - their reasoning is that some of this is end of the quarter window dressing.
"Many money managers and stock experts see the selling pressure that hit the market in late May and early June resuming after the July 4 holiday."
They very well could be wrong, but it's something to consider - their reasoning is that some of this is end of the quarter window dressing.
robo
Well-known member
Thursday, June 29, 2006
Market Celebrates End of Fed Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee hiked interest rates Thursday, but the market celebrated by rallying sharply higher. The reason was that it was clear that the committee had seen that their long series of inflation-fighting rises had finally done their job. Thus, the market reasoned, the market could get back to worrying about earnings -- and there, the picture is much brighter despite a slowing economy.
To some extent, end of quarter Window Dressing probably had something to do with the rally, but the early moves up in recent days by the energy and metals stocks were an early warning of the rally. Friday is the last day of the quarter and should bring in more buying, perhaps after a brief, sideways consolidation pattern, with the rally likely to move to higher prices before a larger consolidation next week.
One of the sectors which had been a big loser this year actually gave a signal on the rally that it would be moving higher for almost the entire next year. This very unloved (but former obsessively-loved) sector has a lot of ground lost to make up and could be a very big mover. Subscribers should follow the link below to our Subscriber's Notes page for more details.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Market Celebrates End of Fed Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee hiked interest rates Thursday, but the market celebrated by rallying sharply higher. The reason was that it was clear that the committee had seen that their long series of inflation-fighting rises had finally done their job. Thus, the market reasoned, the market could get back to worrying about earnings -- and there, the picture is much brighter despite a slowing economy.
To some extent, end of quarter Window Dressing probably had something to do with the rally, but the early moves up in recent days by the energy and metals stocks were an early warning of the rally. Friday is the last day of the quarter and should bring in more buying, perhaps after a brief, sideways consolidation pattern, with the rally likely to move to higher prices before a larger consolidation next week.
One of the sectors which had been a big loser this year actually gave a signal on the rally that it would be moving higher for almost the entire next year. This very unloved (but former obsessively-loved) sector has a lot of ground lost to make up and could be a very big mover. Subscribers should follow the link below to our Subscriber's Notes page for more details.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Economy strongest in over 2 years
U.S. economic growth leapt ahead at an upwardly revised 5.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, helped by lower imports than first thought and generating strong corporate profits, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The department pushed its estimate of first-quarter growth in gross domestic product up from 5.3 percent that it reported a month ago.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/gdp.reut/index.htm
U.S. economic growth leapt ahead at an upwardly revised 5.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, helped by lower imports than first thought and generating strong corporate profits, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The department pushed its estimate of first-quarter growth in gross domestic product up from 5.3 percent that it reported a month ago.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/29/news/economy/gdp.reut/index.htm
W
Wizard
Guest
Yesterday was the end of quarter mark up rally. Did you get all excited?
This stock options thing is getting big. You may want to google that and read up on it.
Have a good weekend.
This stock options thing is getting big. You may want to google that and read up on it.
Have a good weekend.
W
Wizard
Guest
Birchtree said:
Could not even last to 9:35am.
Funny how that works.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Ya, just wait for the last couple of hours at the end of the day when the programs kick it up. I also noticed the revised GDP figures showed that the chain-weighted GDP price index increased at a 3.1% rate, down from the previous estimate for the quarter of 3.3% and lower than the fourth quarter 3.5% rate of appreciation. Inflation contained. Who said sell gold? It's up almost $25 today.
If the market can give us some small gains today and Monday we'll start seeing some extreme short term overbought readings. Volume will be light next week so volatility could be high and anything could happen but as I have mentioned that has usually meant gains for the first week in July. Monday July 10 could be the day to worry about (if you think the market will fall from these levels.)
