Market Talk / June 25 - July 1

[Fivetears]

Could the FOMC raise rates by a half-point?
That's a question that's going around the trading desks on Wall Street. The Fed is expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point to 5.25% on Thursday, just as it's done at each of the past 16 meetings dating to June 2004.

But maybe it's time for a half-point increase to 5.5%, some people say.

So far, the idea is gaining just a few converts. The federal funds futures market, for instance, gives a 12% chance that the funds rate will be 5.5% on July 31, and that includes some probability of an emergency rate hike some time in July.

Not one of the 44 economists surveyed by MarketWatch is predicting a half-point move this week.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...B4C3-B5C9E87FC14D}&dist=rss&siteid=mktw&rss=1

 

[nnuut]

Consumer Confidence up from 104.7 to 105.7.

Existing Home Sales up from 6.75M to 6.67M

What Ya think about that? Is it, hold on were headed up, down or no change?
Seems to be drifting down a bit!

 

[ebbnflow]

It all depends if you're standing, sitting or lying down. Try sitting down for now.

 

[Pilgrim]

The MarketWatch article referenced above (by fivetears) also points out that previous rate cycles have commonly ended with a 50 basis point increase. Some of the analysts paint a rosy scenario in which we get a 50 point raise and a clear signal that we are done. That would satisfy the hawks and still make the market happy.

The worst case, near the end of the article, is for a 25 point raise with a signal that an even larger one will follow in August. That would make the summer very bleak indeed.

 

[nnuut]

Consumer Confidence up from 104.7 to 105.7.

Existing Home Sales up from 6.75M to 6.67M

What Ya think about that? Is it, hold on were headed up, down or no change?
Seems to be drifting down a bit!

Sorry should be DOWN from 6.75M to 6.67M Opps!:embarrest:

 

[nnuut]

Put this in the mix!!

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the possibility of nuclear talks with the United States Tuesday saying nothing would be gained from them, state television reported.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,201141,00.html

 

[Fivetears]

Israel masses forces near Gaza
In northern Gaza, Palestinians blocked roads with dirt and barbed wire. Militants wielding automatic rifles and anti-tank rockets rigged explosive devices along a road as tensions hit their highest since Israel quit Gaza nearly a year ago.

The United States urged Israel to give diplomatic negotiations a chance to win the release of Corporal Gilad Shalit, who was seized on Sunday by militants who also killed two soldiers in a raid on a military border post.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20060627/ts_nm/mideast_dc_52

 

[Fivetears]

Market Updates
12:00 pm: The major averages remain at their worst levels midday as mixed economic data do little to ease concerns about the Fed possibly going too far with its tightening effort a day before the next FOMC meeting begins.

11:30 am: Market continues to weaken as sellers remain in control of the early action. Adding to this morning's struggles has been the inability by the Dow, SnP and Nasdaq to find support above key technical levels of 11105, 1247 and 2121, respectively. Technology now pacing the way lower with a 1.0% decline is weighing most heavily on the Nasdaq while 24 out of 30 components on the Dow are now posting losses.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

 

[Pilgrim]

U.S. stock decline seems to be leveling off. Is it time for buyers to step forward? Who wants to speculate on what the "smart money" will do in the next 2 and 1/2 hours??

 

[Fivetears]

Draw, aim & take a shot at it, Pilgrim

U.S. stock decline seems to be leveling off. Is it time for buyers to step forward? Who wants to speculate on what the "smart money" will do in the next 2 and 1/2 hours??

 

[Pilgrim]

If I were a betting man, and I am until the clock says 11:59am, I'd bet U.S. stocks will recover most of the loss and finish near even. EFA will not, I fund will bleed.

 

[Fivetears]

Market Update
1:00 pm : Indices continue to languish near session lows as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Tires and Rubber (-3.9%) is pacing the way and extending its year-to-date leading 36% decline after Bridgestone slashed its profit forecast by 35%. Homebuilding ranks second, both as the worst performer on the day (-2.9%) and the year (-29.7%) following disappointing housing data, while the return of 0% financing at GM has left Autos (-2.6%) as today's third poorest performing SnP industry group. DJ30 -90.52 NASDAQ -25.37 SP500 -7.68
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

 

[Birchtree]

The McClellan Summation Index after today should be well past -3000 which takes the index back to March 2003 and another major stock market bottom. Better days are on the way regardless what the Fed does.

 

[Pilgrim]

If I were a betting man, and I am until the clock says 11:59am, I'd bet U.S. stocks will recover most of the loss and finish near even. EFA will not, I fund will bleed.

So much for my prognosticatory abilities!!

 

[Pilgrim]

The McClellan Summation Index after today should be well past -3000 which takes the index back to March 2003 and another major stock market bottom. Better days are on the way regardless what the Fed does.

Pardon my ignorance, but in simple English - what does that mean??

 

[Wizard]

Pardon my ignorance, but in simple English - what does that mean??

Buy large cap U.S. stocks. Is there any other message? :blink:

 

[Wizard]

SPX 1239 is back to 29 December 1998.

2737 days of nota for the ole mighty buy and hold investor. :embarrest:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
June 26, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Well at least the bucket got lighter!
Con-Yak..................................ya, GM slumps, DuPont dumps and rates jump.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1239.20, dn -11.36
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.009, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-9.403, flat.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........50.73, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 41.84 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................71.92, up +0.12
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles +2-3, Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1243 [broken]. Trail: 1230.

 

[Birchtree]

Pilgrim,

Read the article I posted by Frank Barbera on 6/22. It is located on the Financialsense website and is very informative from a technical perspective.

Dennis

 

[Wizard]

Read the article I posted by Frank Barbera on 6/22. It is located on the Financialsense website and is very informative from a technical perspective.

Indicator. A permabear goes bullish. He got bullish when the SPX was 1325. Just about the same time as Steven Roach. Franky said the SPX would not fall below 1300 again this year and we would be testing 1500 before the end of June.

Who knows maybe we will get 250 plus SPX points in the next couple days. LOL.

He also has been saying one and done for the last 14 rate hikes but he is bound to be right sooner or later. LOL.