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Market Talk / June 18 - 24
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Thanks, and best of luck for next week also. So far this week, I've called it right.
Monday/Tuesday, market was down -- I played it passively on the F Fund
Wednesday, market was up -- I played it aggressively on the I Fund
Thursday, market was down -- I played it passively on the F Fund
Friday, market is up -- I played it aggressively again on the I Fund
I've been using my tracking system for six months now and I'm still up 14.37% (w/o matching gov or contributions). It doesn't even include the +.70 cents I could have picked up on the I Fund if not for my forgetfulness. I've rectified that situation since then (got a real loud alarm clock).
Monday/Tuesday, market was down -- I played it passively on the F Fund
Wednesday, market was up -- I played it aggressively on the I Fund
Thursday, market was down -- I played it passively on the F Fund
Friday, market is up -- I played it aggressively again on the I Fund
I've been using my tracking system for six months now and I'm still up 14.37% (w/o matching gov or contributions). It doesn't even include the +.70 cents I could have picked up on the I Fund if not for my forgetfulness. I've rectified that situation since then (got a real loud alarm clock).
W
Wizard
Guest
Gilligan said:
Japan has two sessions.
W
Wizard
Guest
Here comes the WWE clothsline. :embarrest:
Re: That Must Be It
We can't win. When we edit or delete posts, or lock threads we are taking away everone's freedom. If we don't, we upset the other half.
I saw your post that there are now 99 members being trcked :nuts: That's a lot of work.
Is there anyone out there that has a better idea for not only tracking 100+ people, but doing it without having 10 MB files being created. I'd like to be able to post it here because I know a lot of email services don't allow attachments that size but a 10 MB file downloaded a couple hundred times a week might eat up the site's bandwidth.
Any ideas are welcomed.
Thanks,
Tom
mlk_man said:
We can't win. When we edit or delete posts, or lock threads we are taking away everone's freedom. If we don't, we upset the other half.
I saw your post that there are now 99 members being trcked :nuts: That's a lot of work.
Is there anyone out there that has a better idea for not only tracking 100+ people, but doing it without having 10 MB files being created. I'd like to be able to post it here because I know a lot of email services don't allow attachments that size but a 10 MB file downloaded a couple hundred times a week might eat up the site's bandwidth.
Any ideas are welcomed.
Thanks,
Tom
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I'm working on a redesign of the spreadsheet which should significantly reduce the size. It will basically reduce alot of the redundant information. I just need to find time to finish.
As to a better method, the best method would be to create or find an online method. The code should not be too fantastic but it takes time. I have not managed to learn java yet, but I doubt I'd be able to scrape together the time anyway.
Tick...Tock...Tick...Tock....
Story of my life, not enough time....
As to a better method, the best method would be to create or find an online method. The code should not be too fantastic but it takes time. I have not managed to learn java yet, but I doubt I'd be able to scrape together the time anyway.
Tick...Tock...Tick...Tock....
Story of my life, not enough time....
Interesting. I know the programmer of the financial utility "Financial Futures" (second utility on this page ...http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities.html). I think it is written in either java or VB. I'll ask him if he has some ideas and if he's interested in writing something.
I've got us side tracked again. (Pardon the pun). I guess we should take this to the Tally thread. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=51
I've got us side tracked again. (Pardon the pun). I guess we should take this to the Tally thread. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=51
My account was ridden down as the market has over the past 6 weeks, but for what it is worth the allocation is kind of balanced:
25% G
25% I
25% S
25% C
Those are just approximations since the slide may have changed those numbers plus or minus 1% in either direction.
I may shift a little more to the C fund once the market hits a low. If what Birch says comes to pass I can see the S&P fall to 1190 ... especially in the face of rising interest rates.
New contributions are getting dollar cost averaged to the tune of 90% stocks to 10% G from now until S&P 1350.
25% G
25% I
25% S
25% C
Those are just approximations since the slide may have changed those numbers plus or minus 1% in either direction.
I may shift a little more to the C fund once the market hits a low. If what Birch says comes to pass I can see the S&P fall to 1190 ... especially in the face of rising interest rates.
New contributions are getting dollar cost averaged to the tune of 90% stocks to 10% G from now until S&P 1350.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Quips,
You got me mixed up with someone else. The Birch has never said anything closely remote to SPX 1190. Allah, don't scare me like that. I said I don't think the previous lows will be tested because the second spike down was so much more powerful than the first one. This type of corrective activity goes back to October 2002 and August 2004 for ab IT bottom.
Dennis - permabull #1
You got me mixed up with someone else. The Birch has never said anything closely remote to SPX 1190. Allah, don't scare me like that. I said I don't think the previous lows will be tested because the second spike down was so much more powerful than the first one. This type of corrective activity goes back to October 2002 and August 2004 for ab IT bottom.
Dennis - permabull #1
Birchtree
Well-known member
The SPX level of 1219.30 on 6/14/06 will go down in memory this time around - observers will be looking for downside penetration of this level as Oct'06 approaches for the 4 year cycle lows. I believe we had the 4 year cycle low last year and will not correct to any degree this fall. It's time to start climbing the wall of worry again. I'm on the look out for Dow 11,722.98 and a Dow Theory primary buy confirmation. That should lead us into a secular bull mega trend - actually a continuation of the bullish secular trend from 1986. Time will provide all the dollars and answers.
D
Dave M
Guest
Much Better
I knew we could find something to talk about. Have a great weekend everybody!
Dave
I knew we could find something to talk about. Have a great weekend everybody!
Dave
robo
Well-known member
Some Market Comments:
Will there be a July Rally? How are you positioned going into the Fed meeting?
I wish I knew about the summer rally. I went back to 25% long yesterday, hoping the 1240's will hold. However, I still feel we could test 1228 again and maybe even lower. The odds favor a rally, but Mr. Market could surprise us all and down he goes.
This very technical damaged market held up very well this week consolidating before the Fed meeting.
I think the Fed is between a Rock and a Hard Spot and will continue to raise rates.
The shorts will not give up easy, and the Bears are sure we are in a Bear market that is headed down, down ,down!!!
Playing it safe with my 25% long position. I have lowered my cost the last few weeks by selling the 2 rallies we had and buying back in a little cheaper. I'm still down -1.5 % since the big sell-off started. Tom and a some of the Tracker Leaders have played it well.....
Positions of the TA's I follow. As you can see it reflects the Board position. These are Professionals with Recommendations about Mr. Market. As we all know, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT MR. MARKET WILL DO!!!!
2 100% long ETF's
1 80% long ETF's
2 50% long ETF's
2 25% to 40% long ETF's and some stocks
3 short market sectors and ETF's
2 cash
Are you a Bull or Bear? Is this a Bull or Bear Market?
I’m not a Bull or Bear. My goal is to try and grow my portfolio. I’m trying to limit losses and avoid high-risk trades. To do this I must know if we are in a Bull or Bear market. Bull Markets buy the Dips. Bear Market sell the rallies. Which one are we in Bear or Bull? The Professionals are split and betting accordingly.
In my opinion many of the Hedge funds and some Big Money will stay out of the market this summer. This will aid in the decline into the fall.
Dip buyers haven’t done well lately. ( Me ) That is why I have sold the last two rallies. I’ll continue to trade short-term on the long side, but not in Love with any position!!!
This Market could rally easily 4% to 6% during a possible summer rally. But make no mistake about it we could head much lower!!!!
Many will disagree with my personal opinions. So, please post what you are thinking. I will not debate my opinion, but always enjoy getting someone elses.
Let see, Birchtree! Is the Market headed up or down after the Fed meets my friend?
A good weekend to all!!!
Good Investing/Trading
Will there be a July Rally? How are you positioned going into the Fed meeting?
I wish I knew about the summer rally. I went back to 25% long yesterday, hoping the 1240's will hold. However, I still feel we could test 1228 again and maybe even lower. The odds favor a rally, but Mr. Market could surprise us all and down he goes.
This very technical damaged market held up very well this week consolidating before the Fed meeting.
I think the Fed is between a Rock and a Hard Spot and will continue to raise rates.
The shorts will not give up easy, and the Bears are sure we are in a Bear market that is headed down, down ,down!!!
Playing it safe with my 25% long position. I have lowered my cost the last few weeks by selling the 2 rallies we had and buying back in a little cheaper. I'm still down -1.5 % since the big sell-off started. Tom and a some of the Tracker Leaders have played it well.....
Positions of the TA's I follow. As you can see it reflects the Board position. These are Professionals with Recommendations about Mr. Market. As we all know, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT MR. MARKET WILL DO!!!!
2 100% long ETF's
1 80% long ETF's
2 50% long ETF's
2 25% to 40% long ETF's and some stocks
3 short market sectors and ETF's
2 cash
Are you a Bull or Bear? Is this a Bull or Bear Market?
I’m not a Bull or Bear. My goal is to try and grow my portfolio. I’m trying to limit losses and avoid high-risk trades. To do this I must know if we are in a Bull or Bear market. Bull Markets buy the Dips. Bear Market sell the rallies. Which one are we in Bear or Bull? The Professionals are split and betting accordingly.
In my opinion many of the Hedge funds and some Big Money will stay out of the market this summer. This will aid in the decline into the fall.
Dip buyers haven’t done well lately. ( Me ) That is why I have sold the last two rallies. I’ll continue to trade short-term on the long side, but not in Love with any position!!!
This Market could rally easily 4% to 6% during a possible summer rally. But make no mistake about it we could head much lower!!!!
Many will disagree with my personal opinions. So, please post what you are thinking. I will not debate my opinion, but always enjoy getting someone elses.
Let see, Birchtree! Is the Market headed up or down after the Fed meets my friend?
A good weekend to all!!!
Good Investing/Trading
D
Dave M
Guest
"This Market could rally easily 4% to 6% during a possible summer rally. But make no mistake about it we could head much lower!!!!
Many will disagree with my personal opinions."
I don't see how. *smile* Now, a summer rally interests me. Last summer we had a very stealthy rally, a couple-three points a day for weeks, it worked out well. Many here expected a poor summer in the usual way and missed out on a good thing.
The division among the pro's does not surprise me. They have all bases covered. So no change in my opinion that next week, it is too doubtful to risk it.
Dave
Many will disagree with my personal opinions."
I don't see how. *smile* Now, a summer rally interests me. Last summer we had a very stealthy rally, a couple-three points a day for weeks, it worked out well. Many here expected a poor summer in the usual way and missed out on a good thing.
The division among the pro's does not surprise me. They have all bases covered. So no change in my opinion that next week, it is too doubtful to risk it.
Dave
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Dave M said:
Dave, I wouldn't disagree. However, we both know that the market can dish out humble pie at any time.
We are somewhere near the bottom of a correction. Close to midpoint in overbought/sold conditions, consolidating. The Fed has to pause hiking rates. They can't keep increasing them forever. The market may have figured in one more. The economy was robust. However, the Fed and energy cost have slowed it down a bit. This may be a good thing. I hear we are in neutral awaiting some news about Q2 earnings.
Attached is a link to the NYSE stock indicators: http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
I know we are leaning less bullish, and slightly more bearish.
And, yes we are in hurricane season.
I'm going to go with the bulls! But, I'll keep the cattle trailer full of gas, in case we gotta make a hasty evacuation.
