Market Talk / July 9 - 15

[Wizard]

[

That is a bear flag.

 

[ayla]

According to flag definitions on this page, I'd agree with Spaf that it looks like a bull flag.
http://www.stockstoshop.com/flagsandpennants.htm

 

[TiCKed]

I don't know....I think world events may trump all technical analysis guides at this point. Middle East has potential to really spin out of control.

Was going to jump out this morning....decided not to....and will probably regret it soon.

 

[The_Technician]

According to flag definitions on this page, I'd agree with Spaf that it looks like a bull flag.
http://www.stockstoshop.com/flagsandpennants.htm

Bull Flag???....your sure you didn't mean a pennant???

I hear someone knocking on the door....be careful it may just be that BEAR looking for a way in.....actually, its been in the BEAR mode since May 10 ...lately the BEAR seems to have just taken a momentary rest....

 

[tsptalk]

Bull Flag???....your sure you didn't mean a pennant???

If you use the closing prices it looks like a pennant. If you look at a high/low bar chart it looks more like a flag formation. The direction of this flag is a bullish formation as ayla said.

The S&P is still hanging above yesterday's lows which is still bullish for stocks based on the TICK signal given yesterday. But if it does go below 1258-1259, it will be a bearish signal.

 

[Spaf]

I don't like the way this looks. The USS Market seems to be taking on some water!

 

[The_Technician]

If you use the closing prices it looks like a pennant. If you look at a high/low bar chart it looks more like a flag formation. The direction of this flag is a bullish formation as ayla said.

The S&P is still hanging above yesterday's lows which is still bullish for stocks based on the TICK signal given yesterday. But if it does go below 1258-1259, it will be a bearish signal.

Good point.. ..other info that I have says the S&P would have to gain 8 out of 32 over the next couple of weeks to get back on track to being bullish..:blink: ..it doesn't look like that will happen as of today, so I deemed it to be BEARISH....:worried:

As an update, it looks like the hand writing is on the wall as of this hour....and IRAN is being sent to the Security Council ... u know what is coming their way.....

 

[tsptalk]

Yesterday's low has been broken. Based on the TICK signal (not TICKed ) that means we could see another several days weakness. But that seasonal stat of this Friday being up 78% of the time still looms. Maybe that will be the day to initiate a transfer out? One thing to consider before getting out is that the up days have been huge lately. Several days of negative consolidation followed by a big one or two day move higher. Missing one of those rallies after catching the losses will hurt. You may want to wait for an up day to get out - hence the possible Friday transfer.

The market is not that oversold. Not good. Still bullish but we obviously are not out of the water yet in the short term.

Just thinking out loud.

 

[Mike]

Yesterday's low was taken out - a retest of the 1220 level is in our future, I think.

I'm planning to sit tight and see what happens when we approach the old low.

And if the security council takes action on Iran, oil has a serious shot of cracking $80, and gas will be well above $3. Yikes.

 

[The_Technician]

Indices are off their worst levels but market breadth remains decidedly negative. Decliners outnumber advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the NYSE while those on the Nasdaq hold a 3-to-1 edge. A 4-to-1 ratio of down to up volume suggests an even more convincingly bearish bias as the number of New Lows also far exceeds New Highs. Separately, Treasuries regained some momentum heading into the close and finished relatively unchanged; but with the spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr note yields becoming more inverted, concerns that profit margins for companies like banks and brokers borrowing cash at short-term rates and lending at long-term rates might fall have prevented the rate-sensitive and influential Financials sector (-0.9%) from taking advantage.DJ30 -100.78 NASDAQ -30.71 SP500 -10.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2218/782/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2328/940/1.24 bln

 

[Pilgrim]

Yesterday's low was taken out - a retest of the 1220 level is in our future, I think.

I'm planning to sit tight and see what happens when we approach the old low.

And if the security council takes action on Iran, oil has a serious shot of cracking $80, and gas will be well above $3. Yikes.

Not only that, but the 200 day SMA was taken out as well. Analysts earlier in the week warned that this would be VERY bad. We shall see.

 

[TiCKed]

Yesterday's low has been broken. Based on the TICK signal (not TICKed ) that means we could see another several days weakness.

Understood.....TiCKed don't give no signals. TiCKed don't read no signals. TiCKed may as well be blind.

Missing one of those rallies after catching the losses will hurt. You may want to wait for an up day to get out - hence the possible Friday transfer.

I hear that. I may be blind, but I fear the "whipsaw" more than just about anything.

 

[Wizard]

delete

 

[Wizard]

That is a bear flag.

According to flag definitions on this page, I'd agree with Spaf that it looks like a bull flag.

..................

 

[Mike]

Not only that, but the 200 day SMA was taken out as well. Analysts earlier in the week warned that this would be VERY bad. We shall see.

Might not be a bad time to short the S&P, at least for the next week or two.

 

[Birchtree]

Well from my portfolio perspective the day looks worse than it feels - this is summertime fun. The bad news is out early - better news to come. The Fed wants as much bad news as they can handle - maintain the pause mode. The trade balance from a relative view point was pretty good, too. More exports and fewer imports.

 

[Wizard]

The trade balance from a relative view point was pretty good, too. More exports and fewer imports.

The trade balance worsen by $500,000,000.

I am not sure why Tom allows this nonsense to continue.

 

[James48843]

I will repeat what I said a week ago-

The best way for you to make money is to watch what I do, and do the EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHATEVER I DO!.

You'll make a mint.

(Currently invested 100% in "I" fund right now. OH NO!!!!! )

 

[Wizard]

7 Simple ways to get yourself Banned from TSP Talk Message Boards:

#4) Intentionally post false or misleading information

Originally Posted by Birchtree
More exports and fewer imports.

The U.S. trade gap widened in May to $63.8 billion versus a $63.3 billion gap in April.

WTF?

 

[Wizard]

Down 19% in AHs.

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - Cree Inc. (CREE.O: Quote, Profile, Research), a maker of semi-conductors, said on Thursday that its fourth quarter net profit would miss its previously announced target range of 22 cents to 24 cents a share.

Time of story: Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:08pm ET

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...-07-12_21-08-54_WEN0988&type=comktNews&rpc=44

I thought today was Wednesday?

This is guidance not their earnings reports. Their earnings report is due 10 Aug.

They are getting smart. The traders have been shorting companies at the close prior to their earnings report release.